The San Diego Padres are scuffling. Plain and simple.
What once looked like one of baseball's best starts has quickly unraveled. After opening the season 31-20 and leading the NL West in late May, San Diego has lost six of its last eight series and now returns home for a matchup with arguably the best team in baseball, the Atlanta Braves.
The Padres (39-37, 2nd in NL West) travel back to Petco Park fresh off a disappointing one-run loss to the Texas Rangers in Sunday's rubber match after the teams traded comeback victories in the first two games of the series. Manny Machado's five-RBI performance in Saturday's extra-inning victory accounted for the Padres' lone win during the final stop of their nine-game, three-city road trip.
The Braves enter the series tied for the best record in the majors despite going 3-7 over the last ten games. Atlanta heads west after a bounce-back series victory, taking two out of three from the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and handing young flamethrowing phenom Jacob Misiorowski a loss Friday night.
Atlanta has built a 6.5-game lead in the NL East behind one of baseball's most complete rosters. The Braves rank among the top five in slugging percentage and own the National League's best ERA at 3.40, helping them compile a 48-28 record as the season nears its halfway point.
When most people think of Atlanta, their minds immediately go to superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., one of 24 players in MLB history to win a unanimous Most Valuable Player award. Yet another Braves outfielder has emerged as one of the National League's most productive players this season. Through 70 games, Michael Harris II is slashing .306/.338/.516 with an .854 OPS and 14 home runs, putting himself firmly in the All-Star conversation. The 25-year-old's impact extends beyond the batter's box as well. Harris II is tied for eighth in Major League Baseball in Outs Above Average (OAA) with six, showcasing the elite defensive ability that has made him one of the game's premier center fielders.
Despite boasting one of baseball's most talented lineups, Atlanta's bullpen has quietly been the driving force behind the club's first-half success. Closer Raisel Iglesias has been automatic in the ninth, posting a perfect 15/15 in save opportunities with a 1.48 ERA in 24.1 innings this season. Southpaw Dylan Lee and right-hander Robert Suarez have been nearly untouchable, combining to allow just six earned runs across 65.1 innings while striking out 68 batters.
Although Atlanta's bullpen leads the league in ERA, San Diego's unit might be even better. Mason Miller is in midst of his best season of his career, striking out 51.7% of batter's faced with a minuscule 0.87 ERA. With Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Jason Adam handling key innings, San Diego has assembled a bullpen capable of going toe-to-toe with even the most potent lineups in baseball. RHP Jeremiah Estrada will provide a boost once the 27-year-old returns from the injured list.
San Diego may have caught a fortunate break, as Atlanta ace Chris Sale and innings leader Bryce Elder are not lined up to pitch during the three-game set. The Padres will need every edge they can get against an Atlanta team that has been equally dominant regardless of venue, posting matching 24-14 records at home and on the road.
Monday, June 22, 7:00 p.m.: RHP Grant Holmes (4-3, 4.33 ERA) vs. RHP Michael King (4-6, 3.60 ERA)
Holmes makes his 15th start of the season Monday night looking to provide Atlanta with more length after totaling just 5.2 innings across his last two outings while King aims to reclaim his early-season success in his 16th start for San Diego. Opposing hitters have seen success against King in June, batting .269 with four homers in 17.0 innings. The right-handers put away stuff has been down as well, posting a 4.24 K/9 in three starts this month.
Tuesday, June 23, 6:40 p.m.: RHP JR Ritchie (1-2, 4.54 ERA) vs. RHP Griffin Canning (1-5, 6.64 ERA)
Ritchie takes the ball for the eighth time this season seeking a bounce-back start after allowing three homers in five innings against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. Canning is coming off his first win as a Padre, tossing 4.1 innings and allowing one run in a 6-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals.
Wednesday, June 24, 5:40 p.m.: LHP Martin Perez (6-3, 2.78 vs. RHP Randy Vasquez (6-5, 4.17 ERA)
Perez will make his 12th start of the season in the series finale and look to build on his strong month of June, posting a 2.76 ERA in 16.1 innings. With Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver all sidelined, the 35-year-old southpaw has emerged as a pleasant surprise for Atlanta's injury-depleted starting rotation. He'll face San Diego right-hander Randy Vásquez, who is coming off his worst start of the season after allowing six runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings in Friday's loss to the Texas Rangers.
INJURY REPORT
San Diego Padres: SP Matt Waldron: 15-Day IL (arm), C Freddy Fermin: 7-Day IL (concussion), RP Jeremiah Estrada: 15-Day IL (knee), C Luis Campusano: 10-Day IL (toe), SP Nick Pivetta: 60-Day IL (elbow), C Jake Cronenworth: 7-Day IL (concussion), SP German Marquez: 15-Day IL (forearm), SP Joe Musgrove: 60-Day IL (elbow), OF Ramon Laureano: 60-Day IL (hip)
Atlanta Braves: OF Mike Yastrzemski: day-to-day, SP Spencer Strider: 60-Day IL (elbow), C Sean Murphy: 60-Day IL (finger), OF Ronald Acuna Jr.: 10-Day IL (hamstring), SP Spencer Schwellenbach: 60-Day IL (elbow), SP AJ Smith-Shawver: 60-Day IL (elbow)