Every sport loves its rivalries. So often, they’re based on geography, or history; in horse racing, year-over-year rivalries are near impossible. So when the Derby winner and the Preakness winner get together in New York, the sport responds in kind.
Saratoga is the site of this year’s 157th Belmont Stakes. Belmont Park, the usual site of the race, is undergoing a massive, multi-year renovation. This race is historically run over a mile-and-a-half, but because of the configuration at Saratoga, will be run an 1/4 of a mile shorter.
The field set up in a near-perfect way: the return of the top three from the Derby; the top trainee in Bob Baffert’s barn; and a smattering of new shooters of varying quality.
The sport has had a robust and contentious five weeks, deciding amongst its loudest commentators if Sovereignty’s decision to skip the Preakness - not for any reason other than they felt like it - is a sign of things to come, or a one off. Sovereignty’s owners, Godolphin, are a massive international group which aims to pick off the world’s most prestigious races. It won the Derby; the trip to Baltimore would not have added to that prestige whatsoever.
But it opened the door for Journalism to do something unprecedented in the stretch, setting up a rematch for the ages. Between Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza, we may just have the best 3-year-olds in training in the same race; anytime that’s a possibility, we should all stop and smile. In a sport so short on recent grand moments, we all have today’s Belmont.
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We hit the trifecta in the Derby and Preakness - let’s make it 3-for-3 today.
The 157th Belmont Stakes. Saratoga Race Course.
Grade 1. 1 ¼ miles, dirt. 3YO. $2,000,000.
1. Hill Road. 10/1. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Chad Brown.
Hill Road won the New York prep for the Belmont, the Grade 3 Peter Pan. He’s a royally bred son of Quality Road, has all the connections, and should take a step forward today. He hasn’t shown the same level of ability as the top contenders in this field, but if a horse is going to spice up the exacta or trifecta, it could certainly be him.
Comment: include in exotics.
2. Sovereignty. 2/1. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Trainer: Bill Mott.
Sovereignty’s connections ruffled all the feathers when they made the decision to not go to the Preakness. But make no mistake about it: he was the best horse in the Derby, and in a year with a very good 3-year-old crop, that means something. The time off between races is ideal for his training regimen, and by every reasonable measure he can win today. I’ve got him on top, just like I did in the Derby.
Comment: most likely winner.
3. Rodriguez. 6/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Ahead of the Derby, I wrote a piece about the three major preps that I had attended, and Rodriguez came out on top of the best horses I had seen in person. He would have been my top selection in the Derby, except he came down with a hoof crack prior to the race. He needed a few weeks off, but appears to be in good form and ready to attack this Belmont field. The track is going to be a sloppy mess today, and Rodriguez was undaunted by cold, wet conditions a few months back in Queens. He’ll aim to get the lead, and keep it. Can he? Yes.
Comment: top contender.
4. Uncaged. 30/1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Uncaged was entered by his ownership when the field was looking lighter on runners. If you wanted to make his case, you would look at his two runs over muddy tracks: he won both easily. At very least, you know he’ll give an honest effort, and will likely enjoy the sloppy conditions in Saratoga Springs today. I think he’s way out of his depth here, but much stranger things have happened in horse racing.
Comment: toss.
5. Crudo. 15/1. Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Crudo won on the Preakness undercard, winning a stakes race called the Sir Barton. He’s owned by Bobby Flay, who joined our podcast right before the Derby. When asked if he had any horses in his stable we needed to know about, he mentioned Crudo. Low and behold, two weeks later, he was winning at Pimlico. He’ll be part of the early speed today, but I just don’t think he’s quick enough to keep pace with Rodriguez. His sire, Justify, won in the slop; don’t count him out entirely.
Comment: Long shot play.
6. Baeza. 4/1. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: John Shirreffs.
Baeza has the shortest odds on the board of any non-stakes winner in this group. He burst onto the scene with a terrific run in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, losing in a close affair to Journalism. I threw him into our Derby handicapping after Eclipse-winning jockey Flavien Prat announced he was riding him, and was rewarded with his terrific run, finishing a great third. Should Baeza win, it’ll be the 21st different winner of the last 21 Triple Crown races. I think he’ll get a nice check today, but he’s just a step below at this point.
Comment: include in exotics.
7. Journalism. 8/5. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
Journalism is the sympathetic favorite in this year’s Belmont, and he’ll be a deserving favorite by the time post time arrives. He’ll be the only runner in the field that ran all three legs, and the fans will likely give him his proverbial flowers today. He can win here, he should win here, for many in the sport - he must win here. I’m less dramatic than that, but a Journalism win here does trigger one of the more pointed “what if” conversations in our sport in a minute.
Comment: Top contender.
8. Heart of Honor. 30/1. Jockey: Saffie Osborne. Trainer: Jaime Osborne.
Heart of Honor finished second in the UAE Derby this year, qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. The connections made the decision to wait for the Preakness, where he finished a decent 5th. Trainer Jaime Osborne stated this week that the added time this side of the Atlantic has helped with preparing for this race, and that Heart of Honor should be more ready than he was in Baltimore. This is so far off the radar of the usual Belmont contender that we’ll let him beat us here.
Comment: toss.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$1 Trifecta ($36) 2,3,7 over 2,3,6,7 over 1,2,3,5,6,7. Good luck!