This weekend, two pivotal matchups take center stage in the quest for a Finals berth. The Thunder look to snuff out the little life the Timberwolves have left after back to back victories tomorrow night. Meanwhile, later today, the Knicks look to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to the Pacers in Game 1 and split the series as they head to Indiana. Below are my picks for the crucial matchups.
The Thunder Land a Punishing Blow in Game 3
For the Timberwolves to have any shot in the series, they needed to capture Game 3 on Saturday, and Minnesota has the talent to do just that. In both of the past two games, key contributors for the team have not played up to par. In Game 1, Anthony Edwards did not score a single basket in the fourth quarter, which led to the lead ballooning to 30 in portions of the game. In last night’s game, Julius Randle had such a poor performance, he was benched in the fourth quarter.
That said, neither game has been particularly close. In both Games 1 and 2, the Timberwolves allowed the Thunder to pull away at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth, putting the game out of reach. Additionally, the Timberwolves continue to be careless with the ball. During the regular season, Minnesota was the 12th most turnover-prone team and 3rd among Playoff Teams. This trend continued into the playoffs, as they have committed the fourth-most turnovers per game among all playoff teams. This carelessness is then further exacerbated when facing a team in OKC that is the league's best at causing turnovers and converting them into easy points. This has allowed the Thunder to stay in games even when they haven’t shot well and build 20 to 30 point second-half leads in both games.
However, instead of focusing on the above, the Timberwolves seem to be in their own heads. This was evident after Game 1, where the Timberwolves shot just five fewer free throws than the Thunder despite taking 30 more three-point attempts, and still lost by 26. Yet, in the post-game press conference, Anthony Edwards was seen laughing at the box score, almost as if something in the game was not fair. In Game 2, Jaden McDaniels grew so frustrated that he intentionally shoved Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to the ground. It seems as if they feel as if they are somehow being treated unfairly. I believe this mindset will continue to plague the Timberwolves in Game 3 and will lead to the Thunder emerging victorious Saturday evening.
The Knicks Rally After Historic Game 1 Collapse
The Pacers continued their late-game dominance in Game 1, battling back to tie the game at the buzzer after trailing by 14 with just over two minutes left on the back of a truly historic stretch by Aaron Nesmith. Indiana then carried that momentum into overtime to take the lead in the series. That said, this was an uncharacteristic loss for the Knicks. The Clutch Player of the Year, Jalen Brunson, struggled down the stretch, committing multiple costly turnovers. Additionally, several Knicks players with high free-throw percentages missed crucial attempts. Despite all that, the Knicks still had a chance to tie the game with 15 seconds remaining.
I believe their ability to outplay the Pacers for most of the contest will shine through again, and if the game is close late, Brunson will return to form. This, combined with the belief that the series may very well go the distance, leads me to pick the Knicks to even the series at one game apiece tonight at the Garden.