The Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes - run this Saturday at Del Mar - grants an all-expenses trip to the starting gate in the $2Million Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
The only problem? No past winner of the O’Brien has ever won the BC Sprint.
This year’s rendition of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships - a 2 day festival of racing - will be run at Del Mar for the 3rd time. Perhaps the home-track advantage will finally pay off for the winner? The last 2 times the BC was run at Del Mar, in 2017 and in 2021, the O’Brien winner didn’t even run in the BC Sprint. 2021’s winner, Ginobili, ran 2nd in the BC Dirt Mile; 2017’s winner, Giant Expectations, ran 6th in the Dirt Mile.
Why might this be the case? The O’Brien is run at the ultimate ‘tweener distance: 7 furlongs. The BC Sprint is run at 6 furlongs, the Dirt Mile at 8. Many horses who are capable at 7 furlongs relish the added distance the BC Dirt Mile offers; the 6 furlongs is simply too short for them to be all out.
Let’s meet the field, led by Cal-bred favorite The Chosen Vron.
1. Moose Mitchell. 20/1. Jockey: Jeremy Laprida. Trainer: George Papaprodromou.
Moose Mitchell is a California-bred gelding, whose best racing days are behind him. He is a 6 ½ furlong and less specialist, and 7 furlongs has never been kind to him. He ran in this race last year, finishing 7th and 9 ½ lengths behind the winner. He’s amongst the easiest tosses in the field.
Comment: Toss; not a BC contender.
2. See Through It. 30/1. Jockey: Tiago Pereira. Trainer: Genaro Vallejo.
See Through It is another California-bred, and has had a nice year: 3 wins in 6 starts, with a 3rd-place finish to boot. He ran well last out in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, also contested at Del Mar, finishing a respectable 4th. His speed figure has improved his last 3 starts, and trainer Genaro Vallejo has done a great job maximizing this horse’s potential. He’s in over his head here, and the 7 furlongs is probably a bit too far.
Comment: Toss; not a BC contender.
3. Happy Jack. 8/1. Jockey: Edwin Maldonado. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Trainer Doug O’Neill saddled last year’s winner of this race in Anarchist, who’s off to run in a million dollar race in South Korea. This is the 1st of O’Neill’s runners in this race, and the longest odds on the board. (Certainly, suburban moms and dads will bet their kids’ name and drop the odds here.) He dominated the Grade 2 Triple Bend at Santa Anita, before running a disappointing race in the Crosby. He was less than a length off The Chosen Vron in the 6 ½ furlong Kona Gold in April; could this be the race where he bests him? He’s 2nd up in this form cycle, so we’ll take a shot and say yes.
Comment: Top betting choice; not a BC contender.
4. Raging Torrent. 6/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
O’Neill’s other runner will start just to the outside of Happy Jack, in Raging Torrent. Like his stablemate, he has been excellent at the distance, and comes in off of 2 excellent wins: 1 in an optional claimer, and one in the Maxfield Stakes, both at Churchill Downs. He had a loose lead in that Maxfield, but he’s fast enough to go stride-for-stride with The Chosen Vron. He has a terrific chance here.
Comment: Third most-likely winner, and must-include; not a BC contender.
5. Big City Lights. 10/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Big City Lights is an interesting entrant, with 2 wins in 3 runs this year. He won the Grade 3 Palos Verdes at 6 furlongs in February at Santa Anita, then took some time off before running behind Happy Jack in the Triple Bend. He’s a California-bred, and has done much of his best running in that type of company; The Palos Verdes win was a nice step up for him. He’s a step slow for this field, but is a threat to hit the board.
Comment: Chance to hit the top 3; not a BC contender.
6. The Chosen Vron. 3/5. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Eric Kruljac.
The Chosen Vron is one of the best stories in horse racing: bred for $3,500, he has won over a million-and-a-half bucks in purses. He’s the best horse in this race, and the most accomplished. If you are leaning on him in your tickets, I’ll never hold it against you; I think 3/5 on him at a distance where he’s only won half the time is simply too short. If he wins, he wins; but for wagering purposes, it simply doesn’t make sense to press hard in this spot.
Comment: Most likely winner; BC contender.
7. Senor Buscador. 5/1. Jockey: Joe Talamo. Trainer: Todd Fincher.
Another cool story, Senor Buscador burst onto the scene last year by winning the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar. Earlier this year, he won the $20million(!) Grade 1 Saudi Cup, pushing his career earnings over $12million. He’s the son of Mineshaft, so he’s more valuable on the track than in the breeding shed, which is great for those of us who wager. I think this is a spot to get him back on the track, and get his legs back under him after several months in the Arabian Peninsula; the distance doesn’t fit his deep-closer style, so we won’t use him here.
Comment: Toss; BC Contender at a longer distance.
8. Arrowthegreat. 30/1. Jockey: Victor Espinoza. Trainer: Dan Blacker.
Arrowthegreat has 2 lifetime wins in 9 starts, both at a mile (8 furlongs) over 2 turns. This is a very different task, and 1 he’s likely not up for. He hasn’t won a race since October of last year, and this is way deeper waters than he’s ready for.
Comment: Toss; not a BC contender.
The Sporting Tribune Play: $5 Exacta, 3,4 with 3,4,6. $5 base = $20 wager.