It’s down to a best of three between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs to decide who will represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.
Out East, the New York Knicks have already punched their ticket with a dominant sweep of the Cleveland Cavaliers, and will await whoever emerges victorious from what has been an absolutely thrilling Western Conference Finals.
Injuries have started to pile up for OKC, who was without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell in a blowout 103-82 loss in Game 4.
Prior to that, every game in this series has been a battle, but have the Spurs solved this Thunder offense that has struggled to get help for back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
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First Pick: San Antonio Spurs +4 over Oklahoma City Thunder
Rundown: To win an NBA Championship, you need a little bit of luck.
Even the Thunder, for as great as they were last season, benefitted from injuries on their route to the title, most notably with Tyrese Haliburton rupturing his Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
Right now, the Thunder are on the other side of that coin.
Facing off against the best defense in the NBA this postseason without your second and fourth best players healthy is just too tall a task, even for a team with championship pedigree like OKC.
It’s even more difficult when your third best player in Chet Holmgren has been a disappearing act all series.
Holmgren is averaging just over 11 points while taking just eight shots per night, which adds mightily to the offensive burden on Gilgeous-Alexander.
The back-to-back MVP is shooting under 40% from the field in this series, and had his worst performance in Game 4, scoring just 19 points on 6-for-15 shooting.
Expect another poor offensive performance for OKC in Game 5, which should ensure a Spurs cover, if not an outright upset, as San Antonio’s suffocating defense continues to bring them closer to their first NBA Finals since 2014.
Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
May 24, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) exchanges words with center Chet Holmgren (7) on the bench in the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs during game four of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center.
Second Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs – Under 217.5
Rundown: The under for the first time in this series in Game 4, as a result of OKC’s 82-point performance.
While a pivotal Game 5 should be expected to be much closer than Game 4’s rout, the Thunder have much more in the tank defensively than they do offensively.
Both teams have hit the over in eight of their last ten games, but with OKC’s offensive firepower waning, expect a much improved defensive effort from the defending champions to turn Game 5 into a back-and-forth, low-scoring dogfight.