MLB Draft Notebook 3.0; The Roch Cholowsky Conversation

While most of the nation is playing baseball at the moment, now including the Northeastern regions of the nation and continent, all eyes are drawn to a trio of high school tournaments in the National High School Invitational (NHSI), National Classic hosted by Prep Baseball Report and the Boras Classic(s). Not included in that was a three-game set between arguably the top two prep programs in the nation -- St. John Bosco (Bellflower, Ca.) and Orange Lutheran (Santa Ana, Ca.), with the latter being the NSHI Champions (their fourth title) in dominating fashion.

On the college front, the midway point of the season has passed, and we are deep into conference play where players have started to separate themselves into more solidified categories of draft stock ranges. This includes what is a perceived top five group, followed by a next 10 that we will focus on in this notebook update. (Last update: 1:30pm PT, 4/8/2026)

ROCH CHOLOWSKY AS 1-1:

UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky entered spring as the clear favorite to go first overall, and nothing has changed on that front.

Cholowsky has shown polished offensive tools that should translate quickly into pro ball, and potentially quickly to big league baseball as well. Even at his low points when his timing at the plate is off (6-for-20 with four strikeouts during USC series), he continues to make hard contact and impact the game through all facets where his defensive acumen is above his offensive upside, with pacing and an internal clock you rarely see at the collegiate level.

When there is such a clear and identifiable 1-1 prospect, it is no longer questions about the talent gap but questions about the cost that can sway the top selection.

Perception is one part of the cost. With social media, TV rights and public knowledge about college baseball at an all-time high, players and their exploits are more known and covered than ever before, meaning perception from the basic viewer will bring more criticism -- positive or negative -- to the forefront; and as much as team executives would like to deny that fan influence doesn't impact decision making, involved ownership will force the sway.

People in Chicago who support the White Sox already have full awareness of Cholowsky and his talents, and Mr. Jerry Reinsdorf is also very much aware of who Roch Cholowsky is. With that, this new Chicago White Sox regime of Chris Getz and staff will be all hands-on deck. Everyone -- from health and training staff, to hitting directors, to research-and-development, to all development and big-league staff, to executive staff, to ownership will have a say and their hands involved in this draft pick. Heck, biochemists will probably be involved in the body proportioning studies of Cholowsky -- and of note, he has a perfect baseball frame.

The second form of cost, and the one that will be the primary focus is actual cost.

Cholowsky, and potentially a few more players involved in this draft class, will be looking at record-setting signing bonuses.

Currently, Chase Burns and Charlie Condon -- both represented by Scott Boras -- hold the draft signing bonus record at $9.25 million. Cholowsky, and his agent/agency (Joel Wolfe, Wasserman), will break that record, but by how much, and will that number sway the White Sox into splitting their funds differently?

As mentioned, more people are aware of how the draft operates than ever before, so you no longer have to explain that the MLB Draft is different than the NBA or NFL draft. Bonus pools, and how to exploit the bonus pool, have been difference makers in every draft pick since the integration of the bonus pool in 2012. Balancing finances, with models that project what a player's value over a near decade span -- because you can only assume that a player will play out their entry level contracts and three-year arbitration -- will be the swaying point of how each pick is made.

Signing bonuses will always be compared to previous signing bonuses. In the case of Cholowsky, it may be as simple as just setting a new record of $9.3 million or somewhere in that range; or it could be setting an entirely new standard of being the first eighth-digit signing bonus of $10 million (or more).

This is where cost-saving based on projections can be a substantial difference. Just for example, UC Santa Barbara pitcher Jackson Flora is now a perceived top five pick and likely the top pitcher to be taken in the 2026 draft class. Pitchers, as a generalization, have become more costly on the open market than any other position.

Flora could just be looking to set the record for highest pitcher bonus (anything above $9.25M), which would still be an all-around record in itself, but could also be notably lower than Cholowsky's desired bonus and upwards of $700,000 in bonus savings. That said, the White Sox have $11,350,600 as a slot bonus for the first overall pick. Even a dollar over the current record would be 81.5% of slot value and $2.1 million in bonus pool savings.

Again, just an example, the chart below shows the separation between two prospects: one being a low-variance 55-grade and high-variance 60-grade prospect (Flora), and a low-variance 60-grade and high-variance 70-grade prospect (Cholowsky).

With no other calculations of health risks, bust percentages, or anything else, a six-year entry level contract could see a gap of 8.1 wins-above-replacement (estimated $72 million in total value) knowing that the value of the pitcher will be higher despite the lesser WAR return. This is where someone like Flora could usurp Cholowsky on finances for the 1-1 pick pending internal projections.

However, there is a small track record of how much success saving heavily has bred for the selecting club.

On average, teams picking first overall have spent 83.8% of slot value on the pick. While eliminating Dansby Swanson who was traded in development (and had a rule created about that) and the pair who are still in development; teams who have granted a bonus over the average have received 3.1 bWAR/162 back in return, while teams who spent under the average got 0.9 bWAR/162 back in return. Seemingly, spending over the average is the better use of funding, despite the incredibly small sample size.

Even at the 83.8% average, the White Sox could grant a record bonus of $9.51+ in signing bonus and save $1.84 million in bonus pool capital.

It's a lot of math and even attempting to make it less complex than it is, there is a condensed version of all of this... Chicago should just draft and sign Roch Cholowsky.

National Classic Notes:

Tyler Spangler, a shortstop at De La Salle High School (Concord, Ca.), missed the entirety of the National Classic held in Orange County with a back injury. Spangler has not played this season due to the injury. Despite the injury, he remains a projected first-round pick who is seen as being selected between picks 15-40. Spangler is a Stanford commit.

Basic High School (West Las Vegas, Nev.) became a must-see team over the week due to their three-headed monster at the top of the lineup in Matthew Kelley, Troy Southisene and Andruw Giles.

Matthew Kelley, an athletic infielder and right-handed pitcher, had a loud three-game set where he went 7-for-12 with two doubles and consistently found the barrel. His right-handed swing is direct to the ball and explosive through the zone, though his bat speed is mostly modest. At third base, where he plays in lieu of Southisene at shortstop, he has a strong arm and quick feet that work for the left side of the infield. Scouts are split on whether he has more upside as a pitcher or hitter, and whether or not he is ready for pro ball with his loudest supporters believing he could be a day one hitter. On the mound, he has been up to 96 and shows the ability to spin a breaking ball. He is committed to Texas A&M.

Troy Southisene is the youngest brother of the Las Vegas-based family that has produced a draft pick each of the last two drafts and is looking like he'll be the third consecutive. His oldest brother Ty signed with the Chicago Cubs for $1M out of the fourth round in 2024, while fellow older brother Tate was a first-round pick by the Atlanta Braves last year with a $2.6625M bonus. Troy is very similar to his eldest brother Ty, as a scrappy middle infielder who can play all over the dirt and budding bat speed with an advanced approach at the plate. He does have some lower half holes in his swing that will need to be fine-tuned but Troy looks very much the part of the Southisene lineage and a future pro ballplayer who may see a seven-digit bonus in lieu of reaching campus at Oregon State.

The most exciting bat of the Basic trio came in Andruw Giles -- no relation to Marcus or Brian. Giles is an athletic outfielder who should be able to handle center field at the next level and potentially into the low levels of pro ball. His bat is the calling card though, with an ability to manipulate the barrel with ease while maintaining his explosiveness and strength throughout the swing. If he opts for pro ball over heading to Oregon, he has day one upside. He went 4-for-10 with six walks, a double and home run over the week. - Taylor Blake Ward

Taden Krogsgaard is a promising prospect out of Temecula Valley High School. The 6-foot-2 right-hander went the distance in his team's 2-1 loss to Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks) while striking out four and sitting 89-91. He will turn 19 just before the start of the next collegiate season, and his age and frame he is a candidate to get playing time as a freshman with the Bruins. - Dylan Diulio

Boras Classic Notes:

One of the biggest waves of the 2026 draft class was the reclassification of Jared Grindlinger of Huntington Beach High School. A solid two-way prospect, his above-average offensive upside could lead to a first-round selection as a position player but the mound is where he really shines. His fastball sits 92-93 and can hit 96, while his above-average slider and feel to locate a changeup make him a projected mid-rotation arm and clear first-round talent on both sides of the ball. At the Boras Classic, he struck out eight over 4 2/3 innings against a talented St. John Bosco offense. Following in the footsteps of his older brother Trent, Jared recently announced his commitment to the University of Tennessee, if he opts away from pro ball. Turning 17-years-old less than two months before the draft, he will be the youngest player in the draft class which will pop on models. Do not be surprised if Jared never suits up for the Vols and instead sees a first-round selection. - Dylan Diulio

USC vs. UCLA Notes:

In his most recent outing against No. 1-ranked UCLA, USC southpaw and frontman Mason Edwards saw his most challenging start of the season. Facing one of the most dangerous lineups in college baseball, Edwards was tested early and often. He finished with 4⅔ innings pitched, allowing a season-high seven hits and four runs (three earned), while walking four and striking out five. Despite the traffic, Edwards still flashed his ability to miss bats, notably getting the better of top draft prospect Roch Cholowsky at times, including a strikeout while limiting hard contact.

His slurve stood out as his most effective pitch in this appearance, generating consistent swing-and-miss. Even as UCLA strung together hits, Edwards showed composure in high-leverage spots, frequently pitching with runners in scoring position and minimizing further damage. While it was not his sharpest performance, his ability to navigate trouble and keep USC within striking distance underscored his poise and competitiveness on the mound.

For more on Mason Edwards, check out the latest TST Draft Feature from Anthony Arroyo

UCLA ace Logan Reddemann showcased premium velocity from the outset, sitting 97–99 mph with his fastball and establishing it as the foundation of his arsenal. He mixed effectively with his secondary pitches, including a changeup and slider, helping him generate five strikeouts over six innings of work.

While Reddemann was largely effective, he did run into issues with the long ball, surrendering two home runs. Outside of those mistakes, he limited sustained damage, despite USC putting together competitive at-bats and collecting six hits and four runs. Ultimately, his ability to provide length and maintain tempo allowed UCLA to stay in control, even if the outing wasn’t completely dominant.

Roman Martin played a key role in UCLA’s offensive production, highlighted by a home run off Edwards. He finished the game 2-for-3 and reached base four times, drawing two walks in addition to his hits. His performance reinforced the defining traits of his offensive profile - consistent contact and a strong on-base approach.

Those qualities have carried throughout his season, as reflected in his .350 batting average and .487 on-base percentage. Martin’s disciplined approach and ability to get on base at a high rate continue to elevate his profile, and producing against a frontline arm like Edwards further emphasizes his development and potential impact at the next level. - Anthony Arroyo

Top Five and First-Round Rounding Out

While a mock draft won't suffice on the first week of April due to teams and players not being connected, some groups have started to form when it comes to draft stock status.

Roch Cholowsky (SS; UCLA), Grady Emerson (SS; Fort Worth Christian HS, Tex.), Jackson Flora (RHP; UC Santa Barbara), Vahn Lackey (C; Georgia Tech) and Justin LeBron (SS; Alabama) have separated themselves into the top five talents in the draft class at this stage.

Following close behind is groups by demographic that all fit the next tier that runs around 25 deep. Just for simplicity, the group is broken down as listed:

The arms:

High schoolers dominate the lefty market with Gio Rojas (Marjory Stoneman Douglas, Fl.) taking a small edge over Carson Boleman (Southside Christian, S.C.), who has a small edge over the California prep southpaws of Jared Grindlinger (Huntington Beach, Ca.) and Logan Schmidt (Ganesha, Ca.). A notable riser in the demographic and market is Brody Bumila (Bishop Freehan, Ma.) who just saw his season begin in Massachusetts where he 6-foot-9 lefty hit 100.

While the prep arms have seen their stock rise, or simmer around the same range as they entered spring with, the college arms are doing Dow Jones peaks and valleys. Mason Edwards' (USC) rise to the top of college LHP1 chart took a small hit after his first real test, though not a major hit and still has him as a 20-30 range arm. There is some LHP1 separation between him and Cole Carlon (Arizona State), but the likelihood is that a left-handed college arm will be the fifth southpaw to go in the draft and may not go until the 20's or 30's.

While Flora has made his substantial jump, Liam Peterson (Florida) has stayed pat in terms of stock with his arsenal playing as it should, but command still modest at best. Cameron Flukey (Coastal Carolina) is a tough guess at this stage due to a rib injury that has sidelined him most of the year, and his return to the mound in the coming weeks will be a massive focus for decision makers. Despite that, he still looks like a teen pick with ease at this time and could jump into the top 10 just as well.

Logan Reddemann has been a name that has jumped from second or third-round perception (pending evaluator) to an easy first-round projection for most after seeing a velocity uptick and consistent loud bat-missing performances for the top team in the nation. He now receives frequent teen range mentions, though will likely simmer as a 20-30 pick.

College Bats:

Among the top college bats, no one has slowed down and has been hitting up to par with what would be first-round projection. There could be as many as 13 college bats who could be seeing top 25 selections, with little surprise of conferences they play in.

Charts give a fair picture on performance between A.J. Gracia (OF; Virginia), Chris Hacopian (SS; Texas A&M), Drew Burress (OF; Georgia Tech), Sawyer Strosnider (OF; Texas Christian), Ace Reese (3B; Mississippi State), Eric Becker (SS; Virginia), Tyler Bell (SS; Kentucky), Derek Curiel (OF; LSU), Caden Sorrell (OF; Texas A&M) and Logan Hughes (OF; Texas Tech).

The needle is constantly moving here between the group with Gracia, Hacopian, Burress and Strosnider a gap above the rest; but more than a handful more right on the curtails.

High School Bats:

The prep bats have blended well with the college hitters. 

Jacob Lombard (SS; Gulliver Prep, Fl.) is sixth man in line behind the top five, and most won't argue it. He sits in a class of his own to a degree and could even sneak up easily. Eric "E.J." Booth (OF; Oak Grove, Ms.) isn't far behind this either and sits top-10 as well.

Behind the pair in the Southeast, three California preps follow with a rough draft stock range of 15-40 in Tyler Spangler (SS; De La Salle, Ca.), Blake Bowen (OF; JSerra, Ca.) and James Clark (SS; St. John Bosco, Ca.). - Taylor Blake Ward