The Breeders’ Cup wrapped up 3 weeks ago, with 9 contenders running a stellar race in the Classic. Forever Young got there first, holding off Sierra Leone in the stretch to win Japan’s first Classic. Up the track? A 3-year-old named Nevada Beach, who finished 7th.
A 3 week turnaround is unusual in the modern training game, especially at the highest levels - but Nevada Beach has done it already this year: trainer Bob Baffert ran him in the Los Al Derby after having previously run in the Affirmed. Those were on June 8th and 20th; the races this month will be on November 1st and 22nd. He won that Los Al Derby, and Baffert clearly thinks he’s set up for another good run.
Let’s meet the field, and find the most likely candidate to spring the upset. If you’re wagering on the racing in California, check out our partners at AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $150 for new customers.
Grade 3 The Native Diver. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. 3+up. $100,000.
1. Indispensable. 3/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Sadler.
Indispensable comes in the second-favorite, and for good reason: has run in graded stakes company 3 times, finishing in the top 3 twice. He’s also had good success at Del Mar, finishing in the top 3 5 times in 6 lifetime starts. It’s a big ask to be better than Nevada Beach, but he’s the most likely candidate.
Comment: can hit the board.
2. Westwood. 6/1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: John Shirreffs.
Westwood spent the year as Baeza’s workmate, but has yet to win outside of a maiden effort in August, also at Del Mar. He’s hit the board in 6 of his 7 starts this year, but simply, he’s not at this level yet. He can finish in the top 3, but is an unlikely winner.
Comment: toss.
3. Nevada Beach. 3/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Nevada Beach is the one to beat. His showings in stakes this year would all win against this company; if you’re looking for a big score late on the card, you’ll have to play against him.
Comment: winner.
4. British Isles. 6/1. Jockey: Diego Herrera. Trainer: Richard Baltas.
British Isles has a great record - 3 wins and 12 times in the trifecta in 18 career races - on the turf. This entry feels a bit like a favor to the racing office to get the race to go, but trainer Richard Baltas does win at 17% recently switching from a turf race to a dirt one. Baltas is off to a slow start this meet at Del Mar, however, with a single win from 16 starters.
Comment: toss.
5. Clouseau. 12/1. Jockey: Kyle Frey. Trainer: George Papaprodromou.
Clouseau enters this race winless at Del Mar, having run 7 times to no avail. His 3 wins this year have all come at Santa Anita, with the most recent coming in a $25k optional claimer. This is a step too far for a win, but he can certainly pick up a decent check.
Comment: toss.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$20 Late Pick 3, starts race 7 ($40): 6,7 / 3 / 3. Good luck!