We’re back at Del Mar, where life’s a beach. “Where the Sure Meets the Turf” isn’t just a mantra, it’s legit: as we began our broadcasts this morning, a heavy marine layer laid over Del Mar; the Southern California sun made quick work of it shortly after sunrise.
Friday at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is a showcase for the future and burgeoning stars of the sport. The 5 races on the card are restricted to 2-year-olds, all of which are in their first year of racing. Three races will be contested on the turf, and two on the dirt.
There have been some important scratches - including Precise - who was slated to be the most likely winner on the day. Let’s meet some of the top contenders, and try to build out bankroll ahead of Saturday’s spectacular card.
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Breeders’ Cup Friday. Race 6. Juvenile Turf Sprint. 5 furlongs. $1,000,000.
This is easily the most difficult race on the card in which to pick a winner. 9 True Love stands out amongst a lackluster group of Euros, the general feeling amongst Euros that sprinting is a touch lower on the prestige scale than routing. He comes out of a very good win the Group 1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket, having won previously in Group 2 company at Curragh. He’s the most logical Euro.
12 Lennilu drew outside, but she’s shown her class repeatedly. She began her career in the slop at Keeneland, winning in April. She ran at Gulfstream in Florida-bred company next out, winning in stakes company. Her connections deemed her worthy or a trip to Royal Ascot, where she finished a good 3rd behind - you guessed it - True Love. That was over a straight line course, meaning there were no turns; she’s gone around a turn 4 times, winning all of them. If the recorded times are accurate, she’s likely the fastest in the field.
Top selections: 12-9-10-11.
Breeders’ Cup Friday. Race 7. Juvenile Fillies. 1 1/16M, dirt. $2,000,000.
Trainer Bob Baffert, the dean of SoCal racing, hasn’t won this race since 2007. He brings the favorite 7 Explora to the starting gate off a solid win in the two turn Oak Leaf. She was a surprising 2nd previously in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, but was able to turn the tables once she got the stretch out. Her final workout before the Oak Leaf was strong, and fast; her most recent workout an almost carbon copy: she’s a deserving favorite.
5 Tommy Jo was a heavy favorite at Keeneland last out, winning via disqualification to the much better 4 Percy’s Bar. I’m not convinced this was a strong race, but the Grade 1 Alcibiades is a traditionally super high level race. I think Percy’s Bar is the better prospect from that race, and with her longer odds, she’s the better play, too.
8 Super Corredora comes out of a dominant maiden win, going the two turn mile at Santa Anita with ease. She got a perfect, uninterrupted trip that day, which may not set up well for a much more competitive race. My sense is the connections know their best shot is to play “come get us,” and just take the early lead and try to run away. It’s been difficult to pass at Del Mar this week, so perhaps a front-runner could steal this one.
Top selections: 7-4-8-1.
Breeders’ Cup Friday. Race 8. Juvenile Fillies Turf. $1,000,000.
13 Precise has scratched, the most talented horse on the card no longer able to run. This race becomes an absolute crapshoot, with the new favorite having previously been 5/1 on the morning line.
2 Queen of Hawaii become my favorite in the race, and with a 12/1 morning line, I’m hopeful she’ll stay off the radar. She won her most recent two races, both at this mile distance. I think her experience in her maiden race going left-handed - the standard in North American racing, but rarer in Europe - will be a major advantage today. Joseph O’Brien has been terrific in his early career, and continues to bring top horses to the BC.
4 Infinite Sky comes in under the radar, her 20/1 morning line price indicative of just that. Top North American-based jockey Flavien Prat picks up the mount, and his multiple riding titles at Del Mar are not to be ignored.
Top selections: 2-4-12-1.
Breeders’ Cup Friday. Race 9. Juvenile. 1 1/6M, dirt. $2,000,000.
This year’s Juvenile features the best matchup on Friday, with favored 8 Ted Noffey breaking from the outside alongside 7 Brant. Noffey won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, his first time trying two turns. Brant is a $3,000,000 purchase, and is unblemished in two runs here at Del Mar. He’ll have to navigate the two turns himself for the first time, but knowing trainer Bob Baffert’s acumen with this angle, there’s no real concern there.
1 Intrepido will try to follow up a win in the Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita with a similar effort here. He broke his maiden right here at Del Mar over two turns, and should be part of the early pace in this race. While I expect Brant to get jump, and the lead, I think Intrepido will be right there. On a track favoring horses near the front, he should offer some value.
Top selections: 8-7-1-4.
Breeders’ Cup Friday. Race 10. Juvenile Turf. $1,000,000.
14 Gstaad was amongst the horses to get a tough outside draw in their race. He’ll break from the 14, but we’ve seen success from that spot before: in 2020, Order of Australia won the Mile from that post position; Gstaad is more talented than the others in this group, so he is able to overcome the post. If you were looking for a reason to beat him, it’s this; I wouldn’t fault anyone trying to get better than his morning line value.
9 Argos comes in for trainer Riley Mott, in his first trip to the Breeders’ Cup as a trainer. He broke his maiden at Ellis Park in Kentucky, before winning the Grade 1 Summer Stakes last out at Woodbine. That race was run over the inner turf, giving him good experience routing, and I think it’s a repeatable performance.
Top selections: 14-9-8-6.
The Sporting Tribune Play:
$4 Pick 3, starts Race 8 ($48): 1,2,4,12 / 1,7,8 / 14.
Good luck today - and watch for our Saturday preview tomorrow!