CARSON, Calif. -- As the dust settles on their penalty shootout heartbreak against Cruz Azul, the LA Galaxy find themselves in the thick of a logjam of MLS clubs battling for four precious knockout-round berths in the 2025 Leagues Cup.
With four points from two matches, the Galaxy’s path to the knockout rounds remains uncertain—but not unforeseen.
Head coach Greg Vanney had long anticipated this scenario.
After Matchday 2 only @SoundersFC, @TimbersFC and @TigresOficial tienen puntaje perfecto 👌
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Así las posiciones previo a la jornada final de la Phase One de #LeaguesCup2025 🏆
It’s all or nothing en esta rivalidad @MLS vs. @LigaBBVAMX 💥 pic.twitter.com/av3Tj20rz1
"I always felt like it was going to take at least seven [points] to get through," Vanney admitted postmatch. "Just because you have so many teams vying for just four spots. You probably have to have a reasonable goal differential, too."
The Galaxy currently sit among a crowded pack of MLS teams on four points, with Seattle and Portland already securing six. The margin for error is thin, and while Sunday’s extra point in penalties would have helped, the Galaxy’s +3 differential currently gives them an edge over several rivals, including Columbus (+2) and Orlando (+2).
However, with Seattle (+8) and Portland (+5) already running up the score in their groups, LA may need to pad their own numbers against Santos Laguna to stay ahead of the tiebreaker curve.
Vanney initially suggested this might still come down to the final match—where LA will at least have the advantage of knowing exactly what’s required of them to advance.
"We’re the last game of the entire first round," Vanney noted. "So we’ll have some relative sense of what we need to do on the night—whether that’s extra points, getting all three, or what our goal differential would need to be."
Matches That Could Reshape the Table
Vanney’s comments reflect a tournament where every result carries cascading consequences. The Galaxy aren’t just fighting Santos Laguna on Thursday—they’re navigating a web of tiebreakers, rival results, and the reality that even seven points might not guarantee a spot in the top four.
While the Galaxy await their Thursday finale, several key matches Tuesday could dramatically alter the qualification picture:
Columbus vs. León (5:00 PM PT)
Why it matters: A Crew (4 points, GD: +2) win would push them to seven points, potentially leapfrogging LA in the standings. A loss or draw likely means Columbus won’t have a seat at the table for the knockout rounds.
Galaxy fans should root for: León to at least secure a draw.
Tigres vs. LAFC (7:30 PM PT)
Why it matters: LAFC (3 points, GD: 0) must win to stay alive. A Tigres victory would effectively eliminate the Galaxy’s biggest rivals and make their path towards the knockout stage a little less crowded.
Galaxy fans should root for: Tigres to win or draw.
Toluca vs. NYCFC (7:45 PM PT)
Why it matters: NYCFC (3 points, GD: -1) is a long shot to beat the defending Liga MX champs, but a win could tighten the race and force the Galaxy to have to win Thursday.
Galaxy fans should root for: Toluca to handle business.