BALTIMORE -- We all have those spots.
It might be the greasy spoon near your place, or that dive bar you can’t quit. The house you grew up in that had a ton of problems, but, damn it, it was your house.
Baltimore's Pimlico Race Course is like that. As a guy who grew up in the Upper Midwest, Pimlico is familiar: a dated, unrenovated dinosaur that was certainly glamorous in another era. I grew up in similar Big Ten football stadiums, old Tiger Stadium; Pimlico is familiar, comfortable.
Preakness 150 will be run today, the last Preakness at the current facility. The wrecking ball arrives tomorrow, and the stadium authority here in Maryland is taking on the project. Given their excellent work with both Camden Yards (Orioles/MLB) and M&T Stadium (Ravens/NFL), I’m hopeful.
Today’s Preakness field lacks a sure-fire star: the Derby winner. Sovereignty, who swept past favored Journalism in the final stretch, will opt out of Baltimore to train up to the Belmont Stakes in a few weeks. It has sparked a ton of discussion about the status of the Triple Crown races: their spacing, and the grueling nature of the three races. That’s another topic for another article, one we’ll visit around the Belmont in June.
Today’s field does give us the Derby runner-up in Journalism, a deserved morning line favorite. Two other Derby alums - Sandman and American Promise - have made the trip, as well. New shooters abound in the Preakness, and we’ve got a solid collection of them in this field.
Let’s meet the field for the historic 150th Preakness, and make a wager.
Pimlico Race Course. Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. 1 3/16 miles, dirt. 3YO. $2,000,000.
1. Goal Oriented. 6/1. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Goal Oriented has two tremendous things going for him: Bob Baffert, the winningest trainer in Preakness history, and Flavien Part, last year’s winner of the Eclipse Award as top jockey in North America. The list of questions surrounding him is considerably longer. This will only be his third lifetime race, both of which came at significantly lower levels than this. Jockey Flavien Prat will give him the best possible chance to win, but he’ll travel much further than he’s ever run, and is probably just not ready for this spot. Remember his name later in the summer.
Comment: Toss, but one to follow.
2. Journalism. 8/5. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Mike McCarthy.
Journalism is the clear class of this race, and his career numbers tower over this field. Favorites are no guarantee in the Preakness, but horses on shorter turnarounds fared very well last year: all three top finishers ran on Kentucky Derby day. Journalism will try to join that group, and he looked terrific in the mornings following the Kentucky Derby while prepping for his trip to Baltimore.
Comment: Most Likely Winner.
3. American Promise. 15/1. Jockey: Nik Juarez. Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas.
American Promise is one of three Kentucky Derby alums, and had a forgettable race. He qualified for the Derby by winning the one turn Virginia Derby, but did have success in a two turn maiden race at Oaklawn. American Promise is a son of Justify, who won here in 2018; last year, Lukas trained Seize the Grey, the winner. Seize the Grey came out of a one turn race, the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile, on Kentucky Derby day. American Promise will try to get the lead and keep it, as Seize the Grey did. Plenty of reasons to like this horse as a longshot, but I think he’s up against better competition.
Comment: Toss.
4. Heart of Honor. 12/1. Jockey: Saffie Osborne. Trainer: Jamie Osborne.
Heart of Honor is an interesting entrant in this rendition of the Preakness, having qualified for - but not running - in the Kentucky Derby this year. He comes out of a 2nd place finish in the UAE Derby, which produced last-place Derby finisher Admire Daytona. The story here is very cool, as this is a father and daughter trainer-jockey pairing. It’s good for the game that Heart of Honor decided to run here, but I think he’s very much up against it.
Comment: Toss.
5. Pay Billy. 20/1. Jockey: Raul Mena. Trainer: Michael Gorham.
Pay Billy is the local hope this year, having won the win-and-in Federico Tesio stakes in April to earn a starting spot in this race. He had a terrific run through the Preakness qualifying trail, winning twice and finishing second by a nose in three races. While he’s probably not fast enough to win in this company, he can certainly get a piece of the trifecta. The last winner of the Tesio to win the Preakness? Deputed Testamony in 1983. Expect that trend to continue.
Comment: Toss.
6. River Thames. 9/2. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
River Thames is dropping in the betting pools, and I don’t get it. This is a clearly talented son of Maclean’s Music, and has top connections in Pletcher and Ortiz. He ran a good second to Derby winner Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, and followed it up with a good third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, a blanket finish in which he finished within a length. Pletcher has never won the Preakness; River Thames can absolutely be the one.
Comment: Contender.
7. Sandman. 4/1. Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Mark Casse.
Sandman ran into terrible trouble in the Kentucky Derby, rallying from last to finish in the top half of the field. He’ll need a hot pace to close into, and he’ll get at least a pair of front-runners to chase. His biggest obstacle will be Journalism’s running style, as he’ll not only have to overtake the rest of the field, he’ll have to take down a stalking favorite. He’s also a very popular bet, as influencer Griffin Johnson has a part of the ownership of Sandman, hurting his odds. Toss for us.
Comment: Toss.
8. Clever Again. 5/1. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Clever Again is an interesting case, as the connections ran him early in his 2-year-old season, running at Keeneland over a year ago at Keeneland. Oftentimes, horses that are ready in the spring as 2-year-olds aren’t great by the time we get to the Triple Crown. The caveat with Clever Again? He took 10 months off, before reappearing in a maiden win in February. Trainer Steve Asmussen immediately moved him up to stakes company, which he dominated in the one mile, two turn Hot Springs Stakes. This is a massive step up in class, but this is an obviously talented horse with a white-hot jockey in Jose Ortiz. He can win here.
Comment: One of the favorites; might be best value.
9. Gosger. 20/1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
Gosger won the Grade 3 Lexington, the final official prep for the Kentucky Derby. It was his first try in stakes company, and only his third career race. That race is a shorter 1 1/16M race, with a much shorter finishing stretch at Keeneland. He did all of his best running late in that race, and I think the longer distance here at Pimlico will serve him well. No doubt in my mind that he is the longshot to watch.
Comment: Top longshot play.
The Sporting Tribune Preakness Play:
$2 Trifecta: 2 over 6,8,9 over ALL $42. Good Luck!