LOS ANGELES — If you're using trends to predict the outcome of the Kings vs. Oilers series, stop — and clear your browser history. Because if the past is any indication, this series ends in an Oilers sweep — and that’s exactly why it won’t.
Let’s look at the pattern: it took Edmonton seven games in the first round of the NHL Playoffs to beat L.A. in 2022, six in 2023, and five in 2024. If that trajectory holds, this should be the year the Oilers finish it in four.
But here’s the thing — this is the NHL Playoffs. Outside of March Madness, no postseason delivers more chaos, more upsets, and more statistical betrayal than the Stanley Cup chase. From wild-card runs to top seeds crumbling under pressure, the first round is one of the most unpredictable two weeks in sports.
Since 2014, when the league adopted its current divisional format, wild-card teams have eliminated No. 1 seeds in seven of the last ten postseasons. In 2019, every top seed was knocked out in the first round. This isn’t where logic thrives — it’s where reputations go to die and legacies get forged.
Which brings us to this year’s Kings–Oilers matchup, set to begin Monday night at Crypto.com Arena.
I’ve read the breakdowns. Hundreds of them. Every think piece, every deep dive into the stats. I’ve seen the comparisons — offensive ratings, defensive efficiency, power-play conversion, penalty kill percentage, even zone entries. Every puck-possession metric imaginable.
But three stats tell the story better than any deep dive:
- Save percentage for Oilers goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard
- Corsi number (a measure of puck control)
- Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)
Let’s start with the most important one: goaltending.
The play of Skinner will dictate this series. You don’t need a spreadsheet to see it. Just look at the Oilers’ record this season:
- When Skinner posts a .900+ save percentage: Oilers are 26–0
- When he doesn’t: Oilers are 0–18
Pickard’s numbers tell a similar story — when Edmonton’s goalies are on, they win. When they’re not, the Oilers rely on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to go full video game mode to stay competitive.
Let’s take it a step further with Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) — one of hockey’s most telling goalie metrics because it accounts for shot quality, not just volume. Unlike goals-against average (GAA), which treats every shot equally, GSAx adjusts for difficulty. A positive GSAx (say, +10) means a goalie is outperforming expectations. A negative GSAx (like –5) suggests they’re allowing more goals than they should.
- Skinner’s GSAx: -1.5 (65th among NHL goalies)
- Pickard’s GSAx: -9.1 (94th among NHL goalies)
- Darcy Kuemper’s GSAx: +22.5 (6th best among NHL goalies) — that’s elite by cold, unsentimental math. His season line: 31–11–7, 2.02 GAA, .921 save percentage across 50 appearances.
Finally, there’s the Corsi number, used to calculate Corsi For Percentage (CF%) — one of the clearest indicators of puck possession. It measures shot attempts for versus against using a simple formula: Corsi For ÷ (Corsi For + Corsi Against).
- Kings CF%: 52.24
- Oilers CF%: 52.50
A CF% above 50 means you’re dictating the pace. These two teams? Virtually identical.
Let’s recap:
- Puck Possession: A dead heat between the two teams
- Goaltending: Kuemper outplaying the Oilers' goalies by a wide margin
- The NHL playoffs: Unpredictable
And I almost forgot to mention a key injury — Mattias Ekholm’s absence on the blue line — a situation Oilers fans are rightfully sweating.
The narratives? Endless. The speculation? Deafening. The outcome of Kings vs. Oilers series this year? A coin flip.
This is the Stanley Cup Playoffs — and the only sure thing is the puck drop.