ARCADIA, Calif. -- Another Santa Anita Derby is upon us, and this year’s rendition follows a disturbing pattern: there’s a half million bucks on the line, and only a field of 5. The ramifications are serious, and perhaps none more serious than for the owners in this race.
Starting this year, Churchill Downs changed the Derby points system to reward fewer qualifying points to smaller fields. A field like the Santa Anita Derby’s - with 5 runners - will receive 75% of the points being run for in Kentucky and New York this weekend.
This follows a 5 horse San Vicente, the prep for this race. Because of that shorter field, a horse like Journalism, who won the race, is in jeopardy of not making the Kentucky Derby field because of the reduction in points.
In addition to our typical information in this column, we’ll look at the required finish for each runner to (likely) qualify for the starting gate in Louisville.
Trainer Bob Baffert will bring two strong contenders with him for this year’s running, a field big on quality but certainly not on quantity. He’ll be chasing his first Santa Anita Derby win since Roadster won the race in 2019. It’s an unusual gap in wins in dirt stakes for Bob Baffert, especially in the 3-year-old ranks.
Can Baffert get another starter in the gate? Will the Derby 151 winner run in this one? Let’s meet the field, and put together a wager.
Santa Anita Park. Race 10. Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. $500,000.
1. Journalism. 6/5. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Mike McCarthy.
Journalism is atop many people’s Derby rankings, and for good reason: every single thing about him makes sense to be the next Derby winner. He was the winner of the Grade 2 San Felipe last out, the prep for this race, and he did it in dominating fashion. Caveat: Citizen Bull wasn’t in that race. He dominated a field which included rival Barnes, whom we’ll discuss later. He’s by Curlin, and out of Mopotism - his breeding is thoroughly royal. I’ll give him the slight nod above this field. Should he win and show out on Saturday - he’ll be your favorite in Louisville.
Comment: Most likely winner.
To Qualify for the Kentucky Derby: top 3 finish.
2. Citizen Bull. 9/5. Jockey: Martin Garcia. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Citizen Bull joined exclusive company this year when he won the Grade 3 Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita Park. He became the most recent winner of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile - the year-end championship race for 2-year-olds - and then won on debut as a 3-year-old. The significance? Of the last three to accomplish this feat, two have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Street Sense in 2006, and Nyquist in 2016. Essential Quality, who is the other, went on to finish third in the Derby. All that to say: sleep on Citizen Bull at your own risk. Baffert knows what he’s doing, and Citizen Bull does what Baffert trains best: gets the lead, and keeps it. Watch for CB to get the lead early, and Journalism on his hip the entire way. Should set up for a spectacular finish.
Comment: Major contender.
To Qualify for the Kentucky Derby: already qualified.
3. Westwood. 20/1. Jockey: Tiago Pereira. Trainer: John Shirreffs.
Westwood is an important part of this race: he makes it go by being a fifth starter. He’s a maiden, meaning he’s yet to win a race. This is an unbelievable ask, and if he were to win, it would be a story for a long, long time.
Comment: First toss.
To Qualify for the Kentucky Derby: win.
4. Barnes. 3/1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Barnes is yet another talented son of Into Mischief, and an expensive one: the ownership spent $3,200,000 to secure him at auction. He ran well, and valiantly, last time out in a good second-place finish to Journalism. His 105 Beyer Speed figure is the second-fastest of any horse still on the Derby trail, trailing only - you guessed it - Journalism. The concern here is he wants to run the same race as Citizen Bull; it’s not clear if either has a true tactical advantage between them. Can he win? Of course.
Comment: Major contender.
To Qualify for the Kentucky Derby: top 2 finish.
5. Baeza. 6/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Shirrefs.
Baeza is the longshot play in here, finally putting it all together last out in a maiden win over a mile on the dirt at Santa Anita. His dam, Puca, is the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Mage, so there’s no questioning the pedigree here. He took a major step forward performance-wise last time, and this will be his third-ever race on dirt. He’s live, but it’ll take another big step forward for him to win. I think he’s one to watch in the coming months, but this is too much too soon.
Comment: Reluctant toss.
To Qualify for the Kentucky Derby: win.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
Race 9: 4,8,10 / 1,2 / 3,4,5,7,10,11 / 1,8,9,10 $.50 Pick 4 Wager costs $72. Good Luck!