DEL MAR, Calif. -- The Breeders’ Cup qualifying series has — for all intents and purposes — come to a conclusion. There are two remaining turf races at Ascot, but the dirt contenders are largely set.
Check back here at TST for an ongoing series of contenders in the Breeders' Cup, held Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar. Here are some of the top contenders in the Distaff, a two-turn dirt race for fillies and mares. It is part of the Saturday card over Breeders’ Cup weekend.
Idiomatic 5YO Mare. Trainer: Brad Cox. Race: Distaff (Nov. 2).
Idiomatic is the defending champ in the Distaff, winning last year’s effort at Santa Anita over Randomized — noteworthy, as Randomized got a touch of revenge by winning this year’s Grade 1 Ogden Phipps in their first rematch since last fall.
Idiomatic’s wins are almost never pretty, and her tendency toward allowing other runners to hang around has cost her a few times this year.
Brad Cox joined ESPN Louisville on Oct. 4 and had this to say about Idiomatic: “She’s obviously had two defeats, and it seems like what people want to talk about, but you know she’s had a great year… We’ve felt like she’s as good this year as she was last.”
She won the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland after that interview and set herself up to be the likely post-time favorite in the Distaff. Her speed figures have improved each of the last three race.
With the short stretch at Del Mar, her front-running style sets her up to be a worthy favorite.
Thorpedo Anna 3YO Filly. Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
There is a “Vox Populi” vote in horse racing every year, for the people’s horse. It would be a stunner if Anna doesn’t win this year’s iteration.
She would be a deserving winner. She’s run six times this year and lost once. The loss came against the boys in the second-most important 3-year-old race of the year, the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga.
She’s won all of the major filly races and comes into the Distaff off of an impressive performance in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx.
If there’s a knock on her, it’s that she hasn’t raced against older horses. She’s raced at the top of her division the entire year and has excelled.
She has earned more than $2.5M and has garnered thousands of fans along the way. Trainer Kenny McPeek has done an excellent job on socials and on track by allowing the public to get to know her.
For that reason, she may catch a large amount of sentimental money come BC Saturday.
She can win because she has a variable style. She can get the lead and keep it, or sit just off of it and pounce.
With Idiomatic, expect those two to battle up front, and make it a classic finish.
Raging Sea 4YO filly. Trainer: Chad Brown.
The best of the New Yorkers, Raging Sea is on a tear of late. She’s won three straight stakes, including a win in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga.
She rallied to top Idiomatic on that day and backed it up with another win on Long Island in the Grade 2 Beldame Stakes. She started poorly in the Beldame, and rallied to win.
A start like that in the Distaff — with the speed styles of Idiomatic and Thorpedo Anna — will trigger an automatic loss.
Raging Sea has won six of her last seven starts, all but one in stakes company. One of the enjoyable challenges of handicapping Breeders’ Cup fields is the regionality of the qualifiers and placing value on their respective regions and competition.
Can Raging Sea win the Distaff? Of course. Is her running style potentially prohibitive? Of course.
Occult 4YO filly. Trainer: Chad Brown.
Occult reinserted herself in the Distaff conversation by virtue of her second-place finish in the Spinster. She’s a constant threat to hit the board, finishing in the money in seven of her last eight races.
Her breeding screams potential superstar. Into Mischief sire, Empire Maker on the dam side.
The longer distances should be her best avenue going forward. While this year’s Distaff may not be a winning one for Occult, her 5-year-old campaign sets up to be one to watch.
The Sporting Tribune Santa Anita Play for Oct. 12:
Late Pick 3, Starts Race 7: 1,4,6 / 9 / 4,7 $3 Pick 3 = $18.