TST Best Bets: November 15, 2026

Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and we’re peaking at just the right time heading into the holidays. Tampa Bay covering against Chicago last week made it three straight weeks over .500.

We’re 22-15 over the past three weeks, and we’re seeing the NFL clearly at TST Best Bets. Let’s keep it going and pick some more winners this Sunday.

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Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 over the Las Vegas Raiders

Rundown: The biggest news of this week’s trade deadline may have been the Raiders sending Kirk Cousins to the Minnesota Vikings for a third-round pick.

When Las Vegas brought Cousins in as a bridge quarterback, the plan was to let first overall pick Fernando Mendoza sit for a while. I don’t think anyone expected the 15-year veteran to turn back the clock and put up numbers like he did in his prime with Minnesota. Now the Vikings have paid a premium pick to bring him back.

The Raiders should be happy to come away with significant draft capital for their bridge quarterback, but Mendoza is also stepping in sooner than planned. And if you could pick any game for his first start, this matchup with Seattle and its elite defense would probably be near the bottom of the list for Raiders fans.

One sneaky part of Cousins’ strong season is that he’s done it with one of the least efficient run games in the league. That’s put a lot of pressure on the passing attack to keep the offense afloat.

Now Las Vegas gets a rookie quarterback making his first start against an elite defense, with no run game to lean on. That spells trouble for the Raiders.’

Detroit Lions -2.5 over the New England Patriots

Rundown: Outside of Sunday night’s game, this may be the best matchup of the week, and it gets the NFL Sunday started with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in Munich.

For everyone who spent last season bemoaning New England’s easy schedule, this year must feel like schadenfreude.

Aside from their win over the Bills, the Patriots have been walloped in every matchup against a potential Super Bowl contender, most recently getting dogwalked by Green Bay, 45-27.

New England’s defense has earned a trustworthy reputation over the past two seasons, but it’s starting to show cracks against the pass. Add Drake Maye’s shaky play and his interceptions, and there are too many reasons to hesitate before trusting the Patriots in a matchup like this.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 over the Atlanta Falcons

Rundown: The Falcons may very well be my least favorite team to bet on this season.

Bijan Robinson, potentially the best player in the league, gives Atlanta a high floor on offense and the ability to spring major upsets, as it did against Green Bay and San Francisco. The defense has also been slightly above average all season.

But there’s a lot to dislike about Michael Penix Jr. He struggles to get past his first read and deal with pressure, and defenses seem to be getting better at exploiting those weaknesses. That puts a pretty low ceiling on Atlanta’s offense.

After last week’s solid performance holding the Jets to 12 points, I trust the Chiefs’ defense to keep Penix from getting comfortable and help Kansas City narrowly cover.

Houston Texans -4.5 over the Cleveland Browns

Rundown: It feels icky taking a team with a significantly worse record as a road favorite, especially laying this many points.

But as I monitor the landscape of the league and the AFC playoff picture, I’m buying Houston as a team that can once again storm into the playoff race after a rough start.

C.J. Stroud has balled out all season and may have played the best game of his career last week against the Chargers.

The Texans’ defense has been disappointing, and I no longer expect it to reach the level it did over the past two seasons. Still, it’s performed well against bad offenses like the Colts and Titans, and by most metrics, the Browns belong in that category.

Green Bay Packers -3 over the Minnesota Vikings

Rundown: The tough thing for Minnesota is that its defense blitzes so aggressively. The best way to beat it is to take shots downfield and make the Vikings pay for the holes they leave in coverage.

There’s no passing game better equipped to do that than Green Bay’s, with Jordan Love playing out of his mind and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both having breakout seasons.

We saw glimpses of that in the first Packers-Vikings matchup this year, when Love threw for 387 yards before Green Bay’s late collapse. I think we’ll see more of it this week.

I’m excited to see Kirk Cousins return to Minnesota, but his first game back is a tough spot: a road divisional matchup against a solid defense. I’m not expecting him to ball out.

Tennessee Titans +10.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars 

Rundown: The Jaguars’ calling card under Liam Coen has been blowing out bad teams, which would normally make me lean Jacksonville here.

But this is a divisional matchup, and Tennessee has played much better over the last few weeks.

The Jaguars are sitting both of their major trade deadline defensive acquisitions, Jordan Davis and Jesse Bates, to give them a bye week, which is both a smart move and also incredibly disrespectful to the Titans.

I think Tennessee responds by keeping this within single digits, especially with this likely being the last game Jacksonville plays with a weakened secondary and defensive line.

Indianapolis Colts -4.5 over the Miami Dolphins

Rundown: This is a disgusting matchup between two teams that might be the worst in the league.

Miami has been surprisingly frisky since its first win of the year against New York, but a lot of what’s impressed me about the Dolphins’ offense has been Malik Willis. He’s been capable as a passer and opens up a ton for the run game with his legs.

With Willis now on injured reserve, I think Miami is about to nosedive from a team that can play opponents tough to the outright worst team in the league.

Carolina Panthers +1 over the New Orleans Saints

Rundown: There’s a big question about Carolina that I think this game will help answer: was stifling the Packers’ and Broncos’ run games in back-to-back weeks a sign the Panthers are turning a corner, or are those teams’ run games just that bad?

It could be both, but in each of the past two weeks, a team with a struggling run game looked poised to bounce back against Carolina’s terrible run defense. Instead, the Panthers held both teams under three yards per carry.

In theory, Derrick Brown alone should give Carolina’s run defense a solid floor. I’m intrigued to see how it holds up against New Orleans, which gets free-agent acquisition Travis Etienne back from injured reserve this week.

I expect Carolina’s defense as a whole to play a lot better than expected against its divisional rival.

Buffalo Bills -9 over the New York Jets

Rundown: I have to admit, the jig is up on me giving the Jets’ offense credit in this column.

They have a serviceable quarterback with a live arm in Geno Smith, two really good running backs, and a star receiver backed by a solid group of depth guys with different skill sets.

And yet, a week after the Chiefs let Bo Nix and company put up 28 points, they shut down the Jets’ offense—even though I’m not especially impressed by Kansas City’s defense.

I’m expecting more of the same against Buffalo, with the Bills winning in a blowout.

San Francisco 49ers -4 over the Dallas Cowboys

Rundown: No matter who’s calling plays for the Cowboys defense, Kyle Shanahan always puts this team in the blender. 

The Cowboys defense has been so uninspiring all year, and even last week Dallas barely pulled off a victory against Indianapolis.  

The 49ers offense is the best in the league this season, and I expect a 40-ball from Brock Purdy and company.

Los Angeles Rams -10 over the Arizona Cardinals 

Rundown: This is a tough one because the Cardinals were impressive on defense when they upset the Rams earlier this season, even with Puka Nacua serving as the focal point of the offense. He won’t be available this time.

Still, I loved what I saw from the Myles Garrett-Aaron Donald combo against Washington last week. Carson Beck’s first career start against that defensive line could be a truly awful one.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals

Rundown: This may be a weird opinion to hold, but I truly think the Bengals are the significantly better team while also believing the Steelers are going to pull off the season sweep. 

Cincinnati’s elite passing game can challenge any top defense, while Aaron Rodgers being a statue in the pocket and throwing to middling receivers puts a ceiling on Pittsburgh’s offense.

But the Bengals can be run on, which gives the Steelers a chance to play the kind of game that suits them best.

Jaylen Warren’s breakout has been a big story for Pittsburgh, but I think the offensive line blossoming into one of the best in the NFL has a lot to do with it.

This should be a great, back-and-forth matchup, but give me Pittsburgh to finish off the sweep.