TST Best Bets: September 20, 2026

Week 1 of the NFL season gives us plenty to react to and very little to trust. Matthew Stafford and the Rams got handled by San Francisco, but does that say more about Stafford or the 49ers’ defense? Arizona beat the Chargers, but are the Cardinals a potential deep sleeper or is Los Angeles in real trouble early on? One game can point you in two directions at once.

TST Best Bets finished 8-5 last Sunday, and our first lock of the season cashed when the Steelers held off the Falcons 20-13. Week 2 brings a different challenge: deciding which of those opening-week performances to believe. We’ll take our shot at every game on Sunday’s slate again.

For all of your NFL betting picks, here are today’s TST Best Bets, brought to you by BetOnline.ag. Click here to join. All new players receive a 50% welcome bonus and up to $250 in free bets.

Lock of the Week:  Chicago Bears -4.5 over the Minnesota Vikings

Rundown: The Vikings’ 39-22 rout of the Packers was potentially the biggest aberration of Week 1.

Brian Flores’ vaunted defense made huge plays down the stretch, turning Green Bay over deep in its own territory on back-to-back possessions to turn a close contest into a three-score blowout.

Outside of those plays, though, Jordan Love and company moved the ball well for much of the game. Green Bay finished with a 38.8% success rate compared with Minnesota’s 34.5%, despite the 17-point loss.

That Minnesota defense now faces the buzzsaw that is Ben Johnson’s offense in Chicago, which scored 59 points against Carolina. That tied for the second-most points scored by a team in an NFL season opener.

I expect another big day for Caleb Williams against the Minnesota secondary, and backup quarterback Carson Wentz is unlikely to keep pace.

Green Bay Packers -3 over the New York Jets

Rundown: This line has moved considerably in New York’s favor over the course of the week, as the vibes surrounding Green Bay are at an all-time low. 

The Packers are now losers of six straight games going back to last season, and the Jets showed plenty of promise in a decisive win over the Titans. 

However, we’re doubling down on not overreacting to the noisy turnover plays in Green Bay’s loss to Minnesota. 

The Packers offense has all the tools to be an elite unit, particularly with Christian Watson looking worth every penny of his giant new contract extension, and will be a huge step in competition for the Jets in comparison to Tennessee in Week 1. 

Love is a quarterback that can push the ball downfield against anybody, but can be prone to silly turnovers than an opportunistic defense can take advantage of. 

Against a team that broke an NFL record last season by recording zero interceptions, expect Love to have one of his best games of the season in a comfortable victory.

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over the Carolina Panthers

Rundown: We locked against Atlanta in Week 1 because we had zero faith in Cooper Rush under center. Our bet hit, but the Falcons had us sweating.

Atlanta’s offense was no juggernaut, but it ran the ball well and wasn’t completely hamstrung by Rush at quarterback.

Scoring 13 points with two missed field goals isn’t a terrible result for a team starting its third-string quarterback, especially when its defense looked incredible against Pittsburgh in Week 1.

The Panthers’ defense looked horrid against Chicago. And while Bryce Young had one of the best games of his young career, I think that performance said more about Chicago’s defense than Carolina’s offense.

Getting almost a field goal with arguably the better team at home is one of the best values on the board this week. 

Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 over the Tennessee Titans

Rundown: Philadelphia’s offense was not particularly inspiring in Sean Mannion’s debut as offensive coordinator.

The Eagles’ offensive line looks to be in disarray, particularly with the news of Landon Dickerson going on IR, which makes it difficult to back this team with a big spread like this one.

But in Week 2, the Eagles get their easiest draw of the season, facing a Tennessee Titans team that is the leader in the clubhouse to get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 draft.

The Jets’ defense, which is not loaded with talent, held Tennessee to 195 total yards in Week 1.

I’m nervous to see what this Eagles secondary can do against the version of Cam Ward we saw in Week 1.

New England Patriots -5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers

Rundown: The Patriots turned the ball over five times in a Week 3 loss to the Steelers in 2025, before winning 13 of their next 14 to close out the regular season on their way to a Super Bowl. 

Pittsburgh might need just as many turnovers forced to cover this spread in Week 2 if their offense continues to look as inept as they did against Atlanta. 

The offseason acquisition of Rico Dowdle has yet to result in the two-headed monster in the backfield that Pittsburgh fans envisioned with Dowdle and Warren, and it’s unlikely we see our first glimpse of that against this stout New England run defense. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 over the Cleveland Browns

Rundown: I have to imagine that if you’re a Tampa Bay fan, watching Baker Mayfield’s worst habits show up in three backbreaking fumbles that cost the Buccaneers the game, just after his huge extension, doesn’t inspire much confidence in what’s ahead.

Still, the Tampa offense’s weapons looked good in Week 1, and there’s a clear vision for this offense to be really solid when Mayfield is not throwing the game away. 

More than enough has been said about Deshaun Watson and his kneecapping tendencies managing the pocket, and the Browns could very well turn to Shedeur Sanders in Week 3 if this matchup gets ugly. 

You never love laying a spread as big as this one, but the Cleveland defense showed very little in Week 1 to inspire confidence they could keep their terrible offense in this game. 

Baltimore Ravens -9 over the New Orleans Saints

Rundown:The Saints’ pass defense actually looked better than the final score suggested against the Lions in Week 1, but I’m more worried about their ability to stop Derrick Henry.

The Ravens’ rebuilt o-line had an amazing debut against the Colts, and Henry dominated to the tune of 144 yards and three touchdowns.

Tyler Shough was able to salvage what looked like a putrid season opener with a late surge in the fourth quarter and overtime.

But against a Ravens offense that should be able to dominate time of possession, don’t expect Shough to get enough opportunities to bounce back from a potential slow start.

Houston Texans -2.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals

Rundown: There was a lot of uncharacteristically bad tape put on by the Texans defense in Week 1, but I’ll have to see it twice before doubting this demolishing Houston defense. 

Joe Burrow enters this game with a questionable designation for a back injury sustained in Week 1, and I have little faith that a banged-up, mostly immoble quarterback can light up a defense that struggles most against running quarterbacks. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 over the Denver Broncos

Rundown:Denver’s poor tackling led to one of the worst defensive performances of this era of Broncos football.

The Broncos missed 25 tackles, the most in an NFL game since 2018. Denver is in desperate need of a tune-up, but it’s facing a team with some incredibly shifty weapons at receiver, plus running back Bhayshul Tuten, who forced nine missed tackles against the Browns.

Denver is 4-8 in September since Sean Payton’s arrival three seasons ago. Given that track record, I’m unwilling to lay points at home against a Jacksonville team of this caliber.

Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 over the Los Angeles Chargers

Rundown: Some may consider this an overreaction to LA’s surprising loss to Arizona last week. 

However, if the Chargers can not start controlling the pressure they allow up the middle, there is a clear ceiling on their new-look offense. 

Meanwhile, the defense did very little to impress against the Cardinals in Week 1. The Raiders displayed enough offensively with Ashton Jeanty carrying the workhorse load against Miami, which gives me confidence they can score enough to stay within this point spread. 

49ers -13 over Dolphins

Rundown: Miami struggled to stay with Las Vegas in Week 1. Now it has to deal with a San Francisco offense that can put even more pressure on a defense that already looks vulnerable. Thirteen points is a big spread, but I don’t trust the Dolphins to keep this close.

Brock Purdy has more weapons around him than Kirk Cousins did last week, which gives San Francisco plenty of ways to attack Miami through the air. The Dolphins can’t afford to focus all their attention there, either.

After watching Ashton Jeanty find success against Miami, I expect Christian McCaffrey to have a big day of his own. If the 49ers establish the run early, this could get out of hand.

Cowboys -4 over Commanders

Rundown: Dallas can’t afford to let its home opener turn into an 0-2 start in the NFC East. There should be plenty of urgency on both sidelines, but I like what the Cowboys have on offense in this matchup.

Dallas has the stronger group of playmakers and should be improved defensively. It has also won four of Washington’s last five trips to Arlington, so playing this one at home gives me more confidence in backing the Cowboys.

When Dallas has beaten Washington lately, the games haven’t come down to a last-second stop. Each of the Cowboys’ last 14 wins in this matchup came by more than four points, and I’m backing them to cover the four-point spread again.

Arizona Cardinals +4 over the Seattle Seahawks

Rundown: This line has shifted six points in Arizona’s favor over the course of the week. 

However, we’re still backing the Cardinals here, as their defense showed major improvements to start the season. 

While the majority of their pass rush success can be blamed on the Chargers o-line, I’m interested to see how they can influence the game against Drew Lock in his first start this season. 

Chiefs -6 over Colts

Rundown: I don’t trust the Colts’ run defense to hold up against Kansas City. The Chiefs have leaned on Kenneth Walker, and I expect them to keep feeding him until Indianapolis shows it can stop him.

That approach also suits the way Kansas City has been moving the ball through the air. With Walker keeping the offense on schedule, Patrick Mahomes can dink and dunk his way down the field and take what the Colts give him.

If Indianapolis can’t get stops against the run or on short passes, it’s going to have a hard time getting this offense off the field. I like the Chiefs to pull away and cover the six points.