A spot in the Round of 16 hangs in the balance for the U.S. Men’s National Team tonight, as they take on Bosnia-Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
In a World Cup hosted on their home soil, the Americans are in rare territory, as they are favored in a knockout match for the second time in team history.
The first, when they were favored against Ghana in 2010, was close to a toss-up.
Today, the U.S. is a major favorite.
Only Argentina, England, Spain and France are bigger favorites in their Round of 32 matchups, which means the hype surrounding the USMNT has led to a major rise in expectations. With that shift comes a much smaller margin for error, as a loss tonight would no longer feel like a missed opportunity, but a disastrous upset for a team expected to take care of business.
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First Pick: USA vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina – Under 2.5 goals (+128)
Rundown: Among the teams that reached the Round of 32, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been one of the weakest at consistently generating shot opportunities.
Through the group stage, Bosnia ranked 38th in the World Cup with 27 total shots and 26th with 11 shots on goal. They have made the most of those limited chances, outperforming their expected goals by 3.13, the sixth-highest mark in the tournament, but that level of finishing has also masked some of their underlying offensive concerns.
While the USMNT’s attack has received most of the attention, its defense has also been surprisingly solid throughout this run. That should create similar problems to the ones Bosnia faced against Canada, which held them scoreless until the match was already out of reach at 3-0.
Bosnia’s clearest path to an upset is through a near-perfect defensive performance, slowing the game down and turning it into a low-event match with limited chances on both sides. Bosnia has allowed more than one goal in just one of its last 10 matches, making it unlikely that even this red-hot U.S. offense does enough scoring on its own to push this total over.
Second Pick: USA vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: U.S to win in regulation (-263)
Rundown: While Bosnia may be able to limit the U.S. offense enough to keep this game under the total, the Americans are still unlikely to be held off the scoresheet entirely.
The U.S. had the sixth-most touches in the opponent’s penalty area during the group stage, while Bosnia, despite doing a strong job limiting the quality of those chances, still allowed the 10th-most penalty-area touches per game.
Bosnia leads all nations with 43 clearances per match, which speaks to how often it has been forced to defend under pressure. Against a U.S. team that has consistently created chances in dangerous areas, expect the Americans to eventually break through and find enough offense to avoid letting this match reach penalties.