“California Chrome shines bright in the Kentucky Derby!”
This was Larry Collmus’s final exclamation on a superb call of the 2014 Kentucky Derby, won under wraps by Cal-bred California Chrome. KQED, the PBS affiliate in San Francisco, ran an article titled “Why California Chrome Shouldn’t Win The Derby - But Root For Him Anyway” - underscoring the improbable nature of Chrome becoming just the 4th-ever Cal-bred to win the Kentucky Derby.
By the time he arrived in Louisville, Chrome was the contender everyone was talking about - and he turned in one of the finest, most dominating Derby runs in recent memory. He went on to win the Preakness, and his 4th-place near-miss in the Belmont was an all-too-common Triple Crown outcome. Fortunately, we all met the Santa Anita-based
Today at Santa Anita, his legacy will be celebrated once again with the running of the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby. We’re always looking for the next Derby winner - could he be running today in Arcadia?
The Cal-breds will be on display beneath the San Gabriel mountains Saturday at Santa Anita, a 9 race card with a mix of maidens, allowances, and 5 stakes. Let’s meet the Derby field, and get our pick 3 wager together. If you’re wagering on Santa Anita - check out AmWager! They’ve got a 100% deposit match up to $150 for new customers.
The California Chrome Cal Cup Derby. 1 1/16 miles, dirt. 3-year-olds. $175,000.
1. My Boy Stan. 6/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Nolan Ramsey.
Trainer Nolan Ramsey is shipping My Boy Stan from Florida, where he is stabled and has been running at Gulfstream Park, for this race - a $175,000 purse will do that. He’s the true wildcard in this race, adding intrigue for bettors. He’s a boom-or-bust type, for sure, and bettors will have to decide if they trust the connections to get him on the ground and ready for a race like this. I’ll play against.
Comment: toss.
2. Sammy Davis. 3/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Sadler.
Trainer John Sadler has kept this one in Cal-bred company his entire career, to positive results. He won his first two career races, including a win in Del Mar’s Graduation Stakes, a dirt sprint for Cal-bred 2-year-olds. He just missed last out in the Golden State Juvenile, contested at 7 furlongs at Del Mar. Sadler is great going sprint-to-route, so look for Sammy Davis to be in the mix at the end.
Comment: include.
3. Start the Ride. 30/1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Dan Blacker.
Start the Ride was declared a non-starter in his only race, a maiden at Del Mar. He made up good ground in that race, seemingly doing a lot of work for no reward. I think the 30/1 price is appropriate.
Comment: toss.
4. Smoovin Saturday. 5/1. Jockey: Tiago Pereira. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
Trainer Michael McCarthy won the Grade 1 Preakness and Haskell last year with Journalism, who returned to Santa Anita this week. He’s entered Smoovin Saturday, a son of 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another. If we’re projecting a potential Derby starter from this field - it’s him. He’s run twice at a mile over two turns - on debut in maiden company before winning the King Glorious Stakes last out at Los Alamitos. He’s been willing in both starts to sit off the pace, showing good maturity to make a move when asked in the stretch. Jockey Tiago Pereira has been aboard for both races, and keeps the mount here. Top pick.
Comment: most likely winner.
5. Almost There. 30/1. Jockey: Abel Lezcano. Trainer: Ryan Hanson.
Almost There is indeed almost there - 0-for-3 lifetime, and all the races have been turf sprints. I think he’s the most likely scratch in the field.
Comment: first toss.
6. Ocean Bear. 5/2. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: George Papaprodromou.
Your likely favorite, Ocean Bear comes in on a terrific 3-race win streak, all with the current connections. Like Sammy Davis, he’ll try two turns for the first time likewise a strength of trainer George Papaprodromou’s outfit. He’s a son of Santa Anita Derby winner Bolt D’oro, so handicappers should feel good about his ability to stretch out. He’s a contender.
Comment: include.
7. John Metcalfe. 12/1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Craig Lewis.
I’m fascinated by the inclusion of maiden John Metcalfe in this field, his most recent race a good 2nd-place finish in the aforementioned King Glorious Stakes. I think the distance is simply too much of an ask for him, as he continues to flatten out at the 7 furlong point of his races. I would’ve liked to see some longer timed works for endurance, but trainer Craig Lewis has stuck to his usual work patterns - and a gentle reminder he knows a lot more about the horse than I do. For bettors: it’s a rare chance to get top jockey Juan Hernandez at 10/1 or longer.
Comment: toss.
8. Can’t Help Myself. 8/1. Jockey: Kyle Frey. Trainer: John Sadler.
There’s a world in which Can’t Help Myself (as the resident Motown guy at the Trib - I love a good Four Tops reference) improves off his showing in the King Glorious, his first try over two turns in his career. He’s a son of Violence, whose progeny have mixed results going over 8 furlongs. I’ll toss him today, but he’s a candidate to hit the board.
Comment: toss.
9. Pavlovian. 15/1. Jockey: Mirco Demuro. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Pavlovian is a Reddam Racing homebred, and son of Pavel. He has one career win, a maiden sprint at Santa Anita in June of last year. He finished a decent 2nd in the Grade 3 Best Pal - which technically qualifies as the best result of any runner in this field. My sense is O’Neill has him in here because of the purse and conditions; I don’t expect him to get a good check here.
Comment: toss.
10. Fionello. 30/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Steve Knapp.
Fionello is the most expensive horse in this race, as ownership paid $250,000 for him. He won immediately afterward on debut at 4 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita last May. He’s 0-for-5 since, with his best finish off the board. Tough game.
Comment: toss.
11. Cruise Home. 12/1. Jockey: Welfin Orantes. Trainer: Dean Pederson.
Trainer Dean Pederson will send Cruise Home to the gate, with recent apprentice jock-graduate Welfin Orantes in the saddle. He’s a son of 5-time graded stakes winner Catalina Cruiser, including stakes at this distance. He’s our live longshot in this field, and a legit threat to take this down. I don’t love the outside post, but he showed a willingness to sit off the pace last out.
Comment: include.
$3 Late Pick 3, starts race 7 ($81):
3,6,7 / 4,6,11 / 1,6,9. Good Luck!