LOS ANGELES -- After resting some key starters in Week 18, the Los Angeles Chargers fell to the Denver Broncos 19-3. After several other results, this sets up as we talked about last week, a Wild Card matchup with the New England Patriots.
LA did show some promise with some offensive line starters playing as they ran the ball for 113 yards on 21 carries, while on 5.4 yards per rush. Andre James at center was the main one who could maybe work himself into the rotation.
Los Angeles comes ready to go with a little more rest in a tough road environment. With Trey Lance taking the snaps last week, there really isn’t much to look at in Week 18 for the passing attack.
The Patriots opted to play their starters and came out on top of the Miami Dolphins 38-10 in their regular-season finale. New England was very balanced offensively with MVP candidate Drake Maye throwing for 191 yards, one touchdown on an efficient 14/18.
The ground game for the Patriots looked great as well, totaling 243 yards on 34 carries, averaging 7.1 yards per rush, and four touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson both looked great and are primed for a playoff push.
There are definitely some key matchups to look at for this game, starting with the Patriots' red zone defense and the struggles it has had this season.
On the season, New England doesn’t allow teams to get to the red area very often; however, when they do get down there, they allow touchdowns at a 67.50% rate (30th), which is not ideal. However, their matchup appears favorable this week. The Chargers struggle in the red zone, scoring touchdowns with a 47.37% clip (29th). Though it will be tough, rookie Omarion Hampton could help punch some scores in on the ground when the field tightens up in the red zone.
For the Patriots offensively, their ability to be balanced, mixing personnel groupings as well as run calls versus pass calls, makes them very difficult to defend.
The key will be how the LA pass defense fares against the MVP candidate Maye and the New England pass offense. Los Angeles ranks fifth, allowing 179.9 passing yards per game. The Patriots' offense averages 250.5 pass yards per game, putting them fourth. Both teams have shone in this aspect of the game all season long.
When they last played their starters, the Chargers had two blown coverages early against the Houston Texans, but were able to tighten up for the rest of the game. LA cannot afford to do this on the road and against a player in Maye who has one of the best deep balls in the league.
All season, the story has been the Chargers’ offensive line, and on the road in a very rough environment, they will need to play well, both creating lanes for the running backs as well as providing protection for Justin Herbert.
The LA offensive line has allowed the second most pressure in terms of rate at 42.4% which has created tough spots for Herbert in obvious passing situations. On the other side, the Patriots have done a decent job of getting after the passer, ranking 12th with a 38.4% clip. Milton Williams has missed a lot of time and has just returned from injured reserve, which will provide a tremendous boost for that pass rush and the defense as a whole.
With Los Angeles being such a good pass defense, New England must be able to establish the run. The past few games, especially, they have come out with that emphasis.
The Patriots, throughout the season, have rushed for 128.9 yards per game (sixth) with many explosive runs coming recently from both Stevenson and Henderson. Los Angeles has allowed 105.4 rush yards per game (eighth), clearly showing a strong presence against most rushing attacks. This matchup on the line of scrimmage will do a lot to determine the tempo of the game as well as how comfortable both young quarterbacks are in a physical and demanding playoff atmosphere.
This game is going to be very interesting with several key matchups, as well as how the Chargers can handle the adverse weather conditions of New England. Both teams are very antsy for this game, with a lot to prove as well as wanting to show the NFL who the next young up-and-coming team really is.
With all this in mind, my pick is that the Patriots will finish the job at home 27-24. I think that the weather, the struggles of the Chargers’ offensive line, and the ability of New England to follow behind their MVP quarterback Maye will prove to be the difference.
It’s going to get intense, so sit back, grab a blanket and some popcorn, and enjoy some elite football down in Foxborough.
