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ARCADIA, Calif. -- With his suspension over, trainer Bob Baffert is ready to win another Derby.
Baffert, unable to run in the Derby since 2021, is back with a stable of strong contenders this year. Citizen Bull sits atop the Derby qualifying standings, by virtue of his wins in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Should Citizen Bull win the Lewis at Santa Anita on Saturday, he will likely have locked up a spot in the starting gate, which would be amongst the earliest in the history of the modern Kentucky Derby trail.
Baffert brings two other starters to this rendition of the Robert B Lewis, a Grade 3 run over a mile at Santa Anita. He has won the last 6 runnings. The list of winners is a who’s-who of SoCal racing, including Derby runners Messier, Medina Spirit, Thousand Words, Dortmund, and I’ll Have Another. Last year’s winner, Nysos, was the talk of the sport until his 3-year-old campaign was cut short by an injury.
The field of five is set - let’s meet them, and place a wager.
Santa Anita Race 4. Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis. 1 mile, dirt. 3YO. $200,000.
20 Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points.
1. Madaket Road. 5/2. Jockey: Frankie Dettori. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Baffert drew the first three post positions, and Madaket Road draws the rail. There are multiple speed horses in this race, and despite only having run twice, Madaket Road has shown an ability to close into speed. His breeding says the added distance will be welcomed, and the fact that the connections thought enough of him to make his first start in a stakes makes him a serious contender. A second-place finish in that stakes, along with a solid show in his maiden run last out, make him a contender here. A must-include in exactas and trifectas.
Comment: Include.
2. Citizen Bull. 6/5. Jockey: Martin Garcia. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Winner of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award for top 2-year-old, Citizen Bull makes his 3-year-old debut here. He turned in a vintage Baffert-trainee performance in the Juvenile, getting the lead early and winning gate-to-wire. He was 16/1 in the Juvenile, a tepid number; his improving form and recent dynamite works show he’s ready to contend in the Lewis. Jockey Martin Garcia, who’s ridden many of Baffert’s very best, keeps the mount here. Garcia is based at Oaklawn, but it’s clear Baffert thinks he’s the best fit for the horse. Must include in any kind of wager.
Comment: Include.
3. Rodriguez. 7/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
The last - but certainly not least - of the Baffert runners is Rodriguez, a splashy winner last out in a maiden win at Santa Anita. His Beyer speed figure of 101 is amongst the best put up by any 3-year-old in 2025. He debuted in the fall at Del Mar, showing early speed before being overtaken in the stretch by Romanesque, another Baffert 3-year-old who went on to finish a solid 2nd in the Grade 2 San Vicente, also at Santa Anita. He had lasix for his last run, so buyer beware; but between the flashy show last out and his breeding, Rodriguez stands to be a major contender here. His sire, Authentic, won the 2020 Derby before going on to a rousing win in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Include.
Comment: Include.
4. Clock Tower. 10/1. Jockey: Gerardo Corrales. Trainer: Wesley Ward.
The most likely upset winner in this race is Clock Tower, who will be amongst the early pace in this one. He’s done his best running on turf, but many SoCal-based horses switch surfaces commonly. Ward is amongst the finest trainers in the US going turf-to-dirt, winning with 26% of those runners. He’s already run at a mile four times in his career, trying dirt at Saratoga as a maiden before a maiden score at Kentucky Downs. After that maiden win, he moved to Keeneland for the Grade 2 Bourbon, finishing 3rd after being worn down in the stretch. The decision was made in November to move him to Del Mar, where he immediately won the Grade 3 Cecil B. Demille stakes, also at a mile. With jockey John Velazquez riding at Gulfstream this weekend, jockey Gerardo Corrales is making the trip to ride Clock Tower. He’s a play against for us, but if you are looking for a big payout in the early sequences, Clock Tower is the play.
Comment: Reluctant leave out.
5. Valentines Candy. 30/1. Jockey: Welfin Orantes. Trainer: Jesus Mendoza.
Starting in 2025, Derby qualifying races have a new wrinkle: during the later races on the trail, if a field has only 5 carded starters, it receives only 75% of the possible assigned points. It’s a shot across the bow at many of the recent Derby preps - including those in SoCal - who’ve featured smaller fields than those in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida. Luckily for the folks running in the Lewis, these rules don’t apply; they begin with the next set of races. The general feeling around this race is that Mendoza is including Valentines Candy to make sure this race goes; we wish him luck, but will be tossing him from our wagers.
Comment: Least likely winner, toss.
The Sporting Tribune Wagers:
$1 Pick 4, Race 4: 1,2,3 / 3,4,9 / 3,4,5,6 / 5 $1 wager = $36.
$1 Late Pick 4, Race 7: 5 / 7,9 / 4,6,8,9 / 4,6,8,11 $1 wager = $32.
Good luck this weekend!