In the first season of the Jim Harbaugh era, the Chargers made it to the playoffs.
Los Angeles carried the top overall defense and a borderline top 10 offense, which led to an 11-6 record.
The Chargers are favored against the Texans, but how far can this team really go?
If Everything Goes Right
Heading into the Wild Card matchup, the Chargers have far more momentum than the Texans do. The Chargers have won three straight games while the Texans lost two important games before week 18.
When it comes to this showdown, the biggest key would be the turnover margin. The Chargers are not turnover prone as they had the second-fewest giveaways this season.
If the Chargers keep control of the ball, then they can operate enough on offense to put pressure on the Texans. Houston is in the bottom half in scoring and the Chargers defense could dominate.
Assuming the Chargers make the Divisional round, they will most likely play one of the top 3 seeds between the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. The most favorable matchup for the Chargers is, surprisingly, the back-to-back defending Superbowl Champion, Kansas City Chiefs.
Although the Chiefs won both of the meetings in the regular season, both games were only one possession games that the Chargers could have won. Kansas City and Los Angeles both like to play low scoring games, which makes these teams play close.
It is very difficult to defeat a team three times and if the Chiefs' luck runs out, then they might be out executed. The Chargers are capable of pulling off a huge upset and knocking off the defending champs.
For the AFC Championship, the Chargers would probably be going against the Bills or Ravens. Regardless of who it is, the Chargers would be facing off against an MVP-caliber quarterback on the road in cold weather.
Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson trying to reach their first ever Super Bowl berth, would be challenging to go up against. The Chargers, despite having a good defense, can struggle against the run, which is why both of these teams are in the top 10 in rushing yards.
While it is not impossible for the Chargers to make it to the Superbowl, it would be very unlikely that they'd get there. If the Bills or Ravens meet the Chargers in the AFC Title game, the signs point to the Chargers losing.
The Chargers are a dark horse to make a deep run, but realistically, the AFC Championship is the farthest they go.
Ceiling: AFC Championship Appearance
If Everything Goes Wrong
The Chargers have a lot of potential to surprise everyone in the playoffs, but they could also completely fall apart against the Texans. Houston has a weapon that can exploit the Chargers' mediocre run defense.
Joe Mixon has had a Pro Bowl season and has been the main focal point for the Houston offense. The Texans are 5-2 in games where Mixon has at least 100 rushing yards. If Mixon gets going, then the Chargers could be in trouble.
To compliment the run game, Houston has a good passing defense that ranks sixth in fewest passing yards allowed. This could slow down Justin Herbert and make the Chargers rely on the run game.
If the Chargers are solely relying on the rushing attack, then that makes them one dimensional. Although the Chargers like to play a smash mouth type of game, the Texans would benefit from this as well.
A game that relies on a run-heavy attack and tough defense would allow the Texans to stay within striking distance. A close game would allow Houston to potentially upset the Chargers.
The Chargers are 0-5 against 10-win teams not named the Broncos. The Texans finished 10-7 and are a quality team that is good enough to defeat the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
Floor: Heartbreaking loss in Wild Card round