LOS ANGELES -- On Monday, the nearly year-long Arthur Kaliyev saga ended for the Los Angeles Kings after the New York Rangers claimed the 23-year-old forward off waivers.
Around this time last year, the healthy scratches started under Todd McLellan, which carried over under Jim Hiller and led to an eventual trade request from Kaliyev around late February. After no team was willing to match Rob Blake's valuation on Kaliyev over the summer and a broken clavicle in training camp, getting waived felt inevitable for Kaliyev.
Fan reaction to this loss has been split. Some felt this was the right move for both parties as Kaliyev was clearly on the outside looking in, while others feel the Kings just gave up a potential quality goal scorer for nothing.
To decide which camp is right let's look at who he is as a player. The first thing that stands out with Kaliyev is his shot, few players in the league can generate the kind of power he does from both his wrist shot and one-timer. He has a howitzer that can cleanly beat goalies at the NHL level. That shot didn't lead to excellent finishing in the NHL though, in each of his three full seasons with the Kings he underperformed his expected goals totaling roughly seven goals below expected in that time with a career shooting percentage of just 8.4%.
Despite having a great shot, he never translated that into elite scoring numbers. His next big strength is finding space in the offensive zone and exploiting it, he has a knack for finding quiet ice and getting open for his teammates. He did it a lot in LA and it led to the Kings controlling chances with him on the ice, but as discussed, he didn't finish those chances enough.
Going back to his draft year Kaliyev was criticized a lot for his defensive play, not without reason, and that stayed with him in the NHL but wasn't really a problem. He wasn't going to win any Selke's but was fine defensively, finishing his time in LA with a positive even-strength defense score according to Evolving-Hockey, and posting very solid 5v5 analytics.
Where his game really struggles is in his foot speed and forechecking. Kaliyev was a willing forechecker, finishing near the top of the Kings' charts in forecheck pressures according to AllThreeZones tracking data, but was completely ineffective at causing turnovers. Combine that with a complete lack of physicality in his game and you have a player who contributes nothing on the forecheck.
Some people will look at that and say, "Who cares you don't have Kaliyev to be effective on the forecheck," while I agree in principle, he also wasn't finishing chances at a high rate or contributing a ton offensively.
He wasn't a lazy player by any means but also wasn't a hyper-competitive player either and it's very difficult to stick in the NHL as a slow player who isn't also hyper-competitive, you have to be providing a high-end amount of offense to stick with those traits and Kaliyev didn't.
The other big criticism of LA's usage with Kaliyev was his spending the majority of his time on the 4th line during his three seasons. Kaliyev even mentioned that adding players in free agency harmed his chances.
“I think I started off there well,” Kaliyev said. “I think unfortunately a few guys they signed in the offseason maybe. The last year just didn’t work out, obviously not playing too much out there. My time was great there, but unfortunately, it didn't end the way I wanted to.”
There's some truth in all of that, I don't think the Kings always put Kaliyev in the best spot to succeed and expecting him to thrive with fourth-line usage was probably a recipe for disaster, but there were things he could have done too. In two straight summers, he fell behind another young player having a better camp than him. First was Gabe Vilardi, and while I think we can give Kaliyev a pass on that one given how Vilardi has progressed since, it happened again with Alex Laferriere.
After a strong camp from Kaliyev, a suspension before the first game started his descent behind Laferriere on the depth chart, a player who does forecheck and plays hard.
Kaliyev's situation isn't too dissimilar to how Director of Amateur scouting Mark Yannetti described Tobias Bjornfot's time in LA. "I think we failed him a little, maybe a lot. Some of it is on Tobi, you have to play a little harder too."
Using Kaliyev as a fourth liner without highly-skilled linemates wasn't a recipe for success and expecting him to be a good forechecker might have been asking too much. However, Kaliyev could have adapted and started playing more physically, he could have finished more chances and forced the coaching staff's hand.
Like with most prospects it's never all the team's fault or all the player's fault.
This brings us to the ultimate question, will the Kings regret losing him to waivers? Maybe, but probably not.
There's still potential for Kaliyev to find his groove in the NHL, get into a top-six spot and first power-play usage which could lead to him being a prolific goal scorer in the NHL, but that isn't likely.
Those flaws in his game, the lack of speed and physicality will probably continue to plague him and could lead to limited usage again. He'll also need to start finishing chances at a higher rate. He's a talented player who could still find a home in the NHL, but that shouldn't be the expected outcome.