INDIANAPOLIS -- I’m sitting in the Owner’s Suite at Horseshoe Indianapolis, on a rainy day ahead of tomorrow’s 30th running of the Indiana Derby. They’ll run the Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows in Altoona, outside of Des Moines; many of the second-tier three year-olds land in these spots, and tomorrow is no different.
The Indiana Derby does have a surprise - and welcome - special guest: Stronghold, the winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and seventh-place finished in the Kentucky Derby. He’ll go off as the favorite, barring some unforeseen wagering.
There are a number of interesting entrants for this one, so let’s walk through them one by one.
1. Woodcourt - Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel - Trainer: Cipriano Contreras
Woodcourt is an interesting entry, in that he typically does his best running against lesser company. This is a big step into a spot with multiple stakes winners, and I’m having a hard time seeing how he wins this race. My sense of how they’ll try to attack this field: they’ll push him early, sit just off the early pace, and hope it goes a bit too fast up front. My sense: it won’t, and he’ll do well to hit the board.
COMMENT: Include in trifecta plays.
2. Stronghold - Jockey: Antonio Fresu - Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Stronghold comes in as the class of the race, having won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in April, and the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in February. He ran a solid 7th in the Kentucky Derby, and comes in off a bit of time off. Stronghold’s connections are clearly using this race for the check: at $300,000, this is the equivalent of a Grade 1 purse in California. He’s the class here, and would be a deserved favorite at post time.
COMMENT: MOST LIKELY WINNER.
3. Real Men Violin - Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. - Trainer: Kenny McPeek
RMV was on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier this year, a runner in both the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, both in New Orleans. He later dropped in class into the Illinois Derby, running a decent second. Most recently, he was seven lengths behind fellow Indiana Derby runner E J Won The Cup in the Texas Derby. His one lifetime win is in a maiden race; I’ll let him beat me before I bet him.
COMMENT: Toss.
4. Kitty Hawk - Jockey: Fernando de la Cruz - Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Kitty Hawk will likely be longest odds on the board tomorrow, and deservedly so. His best finish in 2024 is fifth out of six runner in an allowance race at Churchill last out. He did win his maiden race going this distance; this is another runner, however, that I’ll let beat me tomorrow.
COMMENT: Toss.
5. Informed Patriot - Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. - Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Informed Patriot is an interesting entrant here, with an inconsistent track record. Last out, he was up the track and a non-factor in the Texas Derby; prior to that, he won the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park. If you draw a line through his last race, he offers value. They thought enough of this horse to try him on the Kentucky Derby trail; he simply wasn’t good enough. He did break his maiden at the highest level at Churchill Downs, and has won two lower-level stakes; I think there’s a good chance he hits the board.
COMMENT: Include in exotics.
7. E J Won The Cup - Jockey: Mike Smith - Trainer: Doug O’Neill
EJWTC accentuates the West Coast flair of this year’s Indy Derby, with hall of fame jockey Mike Smith making the trip to ride here tomorrow. This colt won the Texas Derby, following up a win in the Turf Paradise Derby, and a solid third in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. In most years, he’d likely be the favorite in normal Indy Derby field; with Stronghold’s inclusion, we’ll likely see him closer to 3/1 or 7/2. I think he can win, and should be an include in your tickets.
COMMENT: Include.
8. Dragoon Guard - Jockey: Florent Geroux - Trainer: Brad Cox
Trainer Brad Cox won this race last year with Verifying, who went off as the favorite. Verifying, however, had a ton of higher-level experience than does Dragoon Guard. This is an old story, however: Brad Cox takes a late bloomer, and picks off a graded stakes. If for no other reason than the connections, we’ll include him in this race. While Dragoon Guard has gone a mile at Churchill, that was over a one-turn course; he’ll try two turns for the first time tomorrow. I think he’ll be second-favorite at post time because of his connections; I’m not sure the price will be appetizing enough for me to bet him to win.
COMMENT: Has a shot; include.
HOW I SEE THE RACE: 2, 7, 8, 5, 1, 3, 4.
READER MAIL
You are always welcome to email us at TSThorseracing@gmail.com. Here’s one I received last week:
Hey Louie, fan of the podcast and glad to see you’re writing again. Now that Churchill and Santa Anita have ended their meets, how do you handicap tracks when they first open? Do you bet right away or do you wait, or something else?
Ben H., Pasadena
Hey Ben, thanks for hanging out with the pod and for finding us at the Trib.
This is an interesting question, and I’m not one to sit out the start of meets. I’ll play lighter tickets to start, and try to determine the track biases after the first two to three race days.
With a meeting like the shorter one at Los Alamitos, I tend to sit out non-stakes races; with a longer meet like Ellis’, I’ll start to watch for specific trends, namely if front-runners are winning, or closers, etc. I love bets like the Turf Pick 3, so I’m especially keen to watch the grass races for those trends I mentioned. Occasionally, a jockey or trainer will set an early tone at a meet that extends throughout; it’s always worth it to watch for that, too.
When Del Mar opens in two weeks, I’ll watch the opening weekend to get a sense of the biases; but I’ll play the two stakes on opening day no matter what, relying on past performance data from other tracks.