In American racing, fall is when next spring’s dreams begin to take shape. The 2-year-olds coming into the paddock may still be learning the gig, but somewhere among the restless colts and bright-eyed fillies could be the next Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks winner. Every debut winner and determined stretch run offers connections the hope of what could be in the spring..
Del Mar has long been a hotbed for those first encounters with greatness, its seaside setting a familiar proving ground for juvenile talent. The track’s tradition of 2-year-old racing gives each new crop a history to chase: its signature Del Mar Futurity dates to 1948, and future Kentucky Derby winners American Pharoah and Nyquist are both on its winners list. As summer form feeds into the fall, performances there become clues for horseplayers trying to see beyond today’s finish line to the coming spring’s classics.
For us handicappers, that uncertainty is part of the attraction. Lightly raced horses can improve dramatically, and a troubled trip, an overlooked pedigree, or a strong workout can point toward a runner the betting public hasn’t yet caught up with. Fall’s juvenile races offer that rare combination: a chance to meet tomorrow’s stars - and, with the right judgment, cash a ticket before everyone knows their names.
Today’s Desi Arnaz Stakes offers the kind of mix bettors love: proven fillies mixing it up with those who made their debuts later in the calendar year. Let’s meet the runners for today’s 3rd race, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re wagering on Del Mar, check out our partners at AmWager. They have a $50 deposit match for new customers.
The Desi Arnaz. 7 furlongs, dirt. 2-year-old fillies. $100k.
1. Holmby. 4/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Holmby has all but wrapped up Indiana-bred juvenile of the year, as her two debut runs, including a win in the Grade 3 Sorrento, are by far the best wins of any in her class. She hasn’t been the best in her last two races - but jockey Juan Hernandez returns for today’s run. She’s an obvious contender, and it would be no surprise should she win today.
2. Vino Vino Vino 12/1. Jockey: Kazushi Mikura. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Trainer Doug O’Neill sends another maiden to a stakes race with Vino Vino Vino, a 2nd-place finisher in her last 3 races. She’s up against it today.
3. Sea’s No Joke. 7/5. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Bob Baffert’s other runner is Sea’s No Joke, who exits a win in a maiden race at Santa Anita. She won that race over 2 turns, and gets to cut back here. She’s owned by MyRacehorse, so don’t expect any kind of price on this one. Can she win here? Sure. Is she going to be good value? Absolutely not.
4. Grammy’s Gal. 20/1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez. Trainer: Mick Ruis.
Grammy’s Gal is the least likely winner in the race, her best finish a 3rd place finish last out by over 10 lengths. Use her if you’re looking for the biggest possible payout in the early sequence. I won’t be.
5. Mo Chuisle. 5/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
Mo Chuisle tops my list of most likely Oaks starters from this race, as she exits a win on debut last out. Trainer Michael McCarthy clearly waited for this spot, as he could have run her in lesser company the last two weeks. I have her on top today, especially if we get a number north of 3/1.
The Sporting Tribune Wager
$.50 Early Pick 5, Starts Race 1 ($72): 2,3 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5 / 3,4,6 / 2,6. Good Luck!