TST Best Bets: October 25, 2026

Week 7 of the NFL season is here, and this Sunday brings us several exciting divisional matchups that could establish the pecking order of those divisions for the rest of the season. 

The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers meet in a battle of prolific NFC North offenses, while the Baltimore Ravens will attempt to fend off Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals without their star quarterback. 

Meanwhile in the nightcap, we see a must-see revenge game for Kenneth Walker III when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Seattle. The Super Bowl MVP was reportedly not offered a contract extension by his former team, and now on Sunday Night Football, the star running back has a major opportunity to help send the sputtering Seattle Seahawks to a disappointing 3-4 record. 

We narrowly missed a winning record in this column last week after the New York Jets found a way to cover on a late backdoor, leaving us at 6-6. We’ll look to get above .500 this Sunday.

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Lock of the Week: Cleveland Browns -1 over the Tennessee Titans

Rundown: I would’ve never imagined that just six weeks into the season I’d be locking the Browns against anybody, but they’ve earned a great deal of respect after their upset against Baltimore. 

While this offense is still largely not good, it's been serviceable and has protected the ball, which has been enough to lead to wins with the Cleveland defense playing the way it has. 

The Titans got their first win of the season last week against the Colts, but this is a major step up in weight class when it comes to the defense Cam Ward and company is playing this week. 

Expect Cleveland to shut down this poor Tennessee offense and win convincingly. 

New Orleans Saints +3 over the Pittsburgh Steelers 

Rundown: Pittsburgh’s shaky start against Tampa Bay has me hesitant to lay points with the Steelers, especially in an international game. They may still get the win, but I don’t trust them to put enough distance between themselves and New Orleans.

The Saints have a pass rush that can make life uncomfortable for Pittsburgh’s offense. We’ve seen the Steelers’ passing attack unravel under pressure earlier this season, and that’s a real concern in this matchup.

I’ll take New Orleans with the field goal. The Saints have a path to keep this close, and that’s enough for me to back them at +3.

San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over the Atlanta Falcons

Rundown: The 49ers look like the clear best team on the planet, so getting them at less than a field goal feels like a bargain. 

While they are on the road this week, the Falcons did not look very smooth in all three phases of the game, and I consider it unlikely that a defense that got manhandled by Tyler Huntley and Caleb Williams in his first game back from injury in the last two weeks will have much of an answer for Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy. 

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 over the Minnesota Vikings

Rundown: Last week was embarrassing for Indianapolis, and I expect the Colts to come out with a lot more urgency here. They don’t need to be perfect to cover this number, just sharper and more competitive than they were a week ago.

Minnesota has struggled to put games away, too. The Vikings have a habit of settling for field goals when they need touchdowns, which can leave an opening for an opponent to hang around.

I’ll take the Colts with the points. After last week’s showing, they should have plenty of motivation to make this a much closer game.

New York Jets -4 over the Miami Dolphins

Rundown: This is a game that Dolphins fans might have had written down as a great opportunity to break their winless streak, but the Jets are surprisingly competent this year. 

The passing attack looked solid against New England last week, and New York’s victory over Cleveland and overtime loss to Green Bay are two results that have aged really well since. 

I think the Jets stomp Miami in this spot behind a 30-point performance from the offense. 

Carolina Panthers -3 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Rundown: I’m not ready to trust Baker Mayfield in his first game back from injury. Even if he’s cleared to play, there’s a difference between being available and being back to full strength.

Carolina’s passing attack has shown it can make defenses pay, ranking eighth in EPA per pass. That gives the Panthers a clear way to pressure Tampa Bay if Mayfield isn’t sharp right away.

I’ll lay the three points with Carolina. The Panthers have the more reliable passing game heading into this matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 over the Baltimore Ravens

Rundown: It’s a little uncomfortable to back Cincinnati as a road favorite after the Bengals spent most of the week getting points. Lamar Jackson’s absence appears to have caught the market off guard, and the line has shifted quickly.

Still, this is a major opportunity for the Bengals. Their offense can put up points against Baltimore, and with Jackson out, Cincinnati has a chance to strengthen its grip on the AFC North race.

New York Giants +10.5 over the Houston Texans

Rundown: This one feels a little icky either way.

JJ McCarthy’s fourth-quarter surge last week was an exciting surprise, but going from thinking the young former Michigan Wolverine’s NFL career was over a week ago to backing him against a playoff hopeful is a big jump.

Still, Houston’s defense has been vulnerable all season, and I expect the Giants’ pass catchers to make plays against a secondary that can be had.

I expect Houston to win, but the Giants should keep it close enough to cover.

Denver Broncos -4.5 over the Arizona Cardinals

Rundown: The national conversation surrounding Bo Nix’s lackluster play has largely overshadowed the main story with Denver: this is a defensive juggernaut. The Broncos were missing Patrick Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga last week and still controlled an offense led by one of the league’s top receivers.

Denver should be healthier on defense this time, with Surtain and Hufanga back and Jonathan Cooper returning from suspension. That’s a tough group for Arizona to deal with, especially after the Cardinals struggled to finish drives even in last week’s upset.

The Broncos have the defensive edge and a favorable matchup against a struggling Arizona unit. I’ll lay the points with Denver.

Green Bay Packers +3.5 over the Detroit Lions

Rundown: I am all in on the Packers right now, and it starts with the high level play we’ve gotten out of Jordan Love as of late. 

Green Bay’s young star quarterback has been absolutely dealing over this three-game win streak, and he’s done it without any semblance of a run game. 

Now he faces one of the very worst defenses in the league in the same game he gets his star running back in Josh Jacobs back from suspension. 

Give me Green Bay outright in what should be a thrilling shootout. 

Los Angeles Rams -3 over the Las Vegas Raiders

Rundown: This feels like a must-win spot for the Rams. Falling to 2-5 would put their season in serious jeopardy, and they can’t afford to let this one slip away against Las Vegas.

There are real reasons for concern, especially with the injuries piling up. But this group has too much championship DNA to fold when the stakes are this high.

I’ll lay the field goal and back the Rams to respond with their season on the line.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 over the Seattle Seahawks

Rundown: Few matchups have a bigger gap between the two teams’ rushing attacks. Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing yards despite Kansas City having already taken its bye, while Seattle has been one of the NFL’s least effective teams on the ground. The Seahawks also won’t get Zach Charbonnet back until next week.

That ground game gives the Chiefs a way to keep defenses honest and make life easier for Patrick Mahomes. Seattle’s lack of a reliable run threat puts far more pressure on Sam Darnold to carry the offense, and he hasn’t handled that burden well.

I’ll take Kansas City with the points. Getting an undefeated team plus the points at this point in the season is too great an opportunity to pass up, especially when you consider the differences between these two offenses.