TST Best Bets: October 18, 2026

Week 6 of the young NFL season brings another chance for contenders to separate themselves and struggling teams to keep their seasons from slipping away. We’re picking every game on Sunday’s NFL slate, including our Lock of the Week, with our own sights set on a bounce-back performance after going 5-8 last week.

For all of your NFL betting picks, here are today’s TST Best Bets, brought to you by BetOnline.ag. Click here to join. All new players receive a 50% welcome bonus and up to $250 in free bets.

Lock of the Week: New England Patriots -7.5 over the New York Jets

Rundown: The flipside of the disparaging Drake “The Schedule” Maye nickname is that he, as well as the Patriots, don’t play around against the cupcakes on their schedule. 

New England finished 10-4 against the spread as a favorite last season, and their resounding victory over the Raiders last week was a flashback to how great Maye was a season ago. 

For a quarterback looking to stack up solid performances after a putrid start to the year, this Jets defense is as favorable a matchup as any, and I expect Maye and the Patriots to roll here. 

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 over the Houston Texans

Rundown: Jacksonville is back in London for the second week in a row, and while they didn’t cover against Philadelphia last week, I’ve got them stacking up another win across the pond in more convincing fashion this week. 

The mystery of the Houston defense not meeting its lofty expectations this season has come down to two major factors: the simplicity of their scheme and their weakness in covering the slot. 

Head coach DeMeco Ryans and his defensive coaching staff have at times boasted about how their defense does not rely on complex blitz calls or coverages, instead employing a scheme that uses simple one-word play calls and puts trust in the immense talent across each unit of the defense. 

However, beyond their star outside corners, no one else on this defense has been able to cover anyone this season. Without Ryans and company throwing a lot of different pitches at teams, offenses have consistently found easy ways to attack them.

This has led to them getting killed by receivers lined up in the slot all season, and now they face maybe the best slot receiver in the league in Parker Washington.

I expect Liam Coen to have the Jaguars’ passing game humming in London on Sunday, and the Jags to send the Texans down to 1-5.

Chicago Bears over the Atlanta Falcons

Rundown: This is a straight up pick ‘em in Caleb Williams’ first game after returning from injury, but I think the major factor that will swing this game will be how the secondary holds up in Chicago. 

The Bears lack of talent in the secondary was the biggest reason to doubt that unit going into the season, but they’ve performed more than admirably up to this point, up until last week against Green Bay. 

Quarterbacks who don’t fear throwing it deep or over the middle are going to put up elite numbers all season against this Bears defense, just like Jordan Love did last week. 

But Michael Penix is not a guy who fits that description, and Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has shown the capacity to scheme a winning gameplan against a more limited quarterback. 

Baltimore Ravens -3 over the Cleveland Browns

Rundown: Deshaun Watson’s return to earth started last week against New York, and I believe this Ravens defense is going to send him falling even further.

After the Browns improved to 3-1 on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago against the Steelers, there was a lot of optimism surrounding the team and Watson’s return to being a legitimate starting quarterback in this league.

When a guy hasn’t put out good tape since before the pandemic, I’m incredibly reluctant to believe he’s returned to competency until I see it for the better part of a season, and his performance against the Jets last week left me feeling vindicated.

Against a much better defense this week, I expect a truly terrible performance from Watson in a big loss.

Tennessee Titans +7 over the Indianapolis Colts 

Rundown: I don’t really love either side of this game in all honesty, and I particularly don’t enjoy sweating out bets on teams with bad quarterbacks. 

However, while Cam Ward has yet to give Titans fans even a sliver of hope for the future this season, he’s facing the worst defense he’s played all year on Sunday. 

The Colts can’t rush the passer and don’t cover well, which makes them a terrible team to bet on as a big favorite. 

Even though I’m confident the Colts are a much better team than Tennessee, their offense isn’t good enough to warrant laying a big number with this porous of a defense. 

New Orleans Saints over the New York Giants

Rundown: This is another pick ‘em on BetOnline’s sportsbook, and my rationale for this one is quite simple. 

The New York Giants with Jameis Winston at quarterback are not going to start the year 4-1-1. 

New York caught plenty of breaks in its comeback against Washington last week and still would have lost in overtime if not for one of the worst clock management decisions I’ve ever seen from Jayden Daniels.

The Saints have been a major disappointment after a promising first two weeks, but I think their defense can turn a few of Winston’s risky throws into interceptions. I trust Chris Olave and this passing attack to put up enough points for New Orleans to bounce back.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 over the Carolina Panthers

Rundown: The Eagles’ season has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, and the worst news of all came Thursday when Jalen Hurts was announced as out indefinitely with a blood clot.

Without their quarterback, their star running back and the majority of the offensive line from Week 1, this line has shifted significantly in Carolina’s favor.

However, I’m not comfortable laying a field goal with the Panthers on the road against Philadelphia considering how solid they looked defensively against Jacksonville in London. 

Were it not for a truly improbable kick return and ensuing game-winning field goal by Cam Little, the Eagles would have come away with a win against one of the best teams in the league. 

I expect the defense to continue to play well enough in this game to force a cover or upset for the Eagles. 

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rundown:The Steelers proved me wrong last week, and I’m starting to think I was too quick to write off this offense after its early struggles.

Pittsburgh’s offensive line is playing like one of the best in the league, giving Jaylen Warren room to break out as a star.

I expect the Steelers to keep rolling against a Tampa Bay team that looks lost without its starting quarterback.

Los Angeles Rams -12.5 over the Arizona Cardinals

Rundown: Of all the bad teams in the league, the Cardinals feel the most structurally engineered to backdoor cover in games as big underdogs. 

We backed Arizona last week in a similar situation against Detroit last week, but the lack of explosiveness in their run game along with trading away their second-best receiver has made their passing attack more predictable, and in turn less effective. 

The Rams are unlucky to be 2-3, considering Denver’s improbable comeback in Week 3 and the missed field goal that cost them last week’s game. I think they take out some of that frustration on Arizona.

Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs

Rundown: Justin Herbert hasn’t played up to his standard, but Kansas City’s recent struggles to generate pressure give him a chance to get back on track. If the Chiefs can’t consistently move him off his spot, I expect a better showing from this Chargers passing attack.

The Chargers have made it difficult to trust them offensively, but Herbert should have opportunities to push the ball downfield with more time in the pocket. He needs to take advantage for Los Angeles to keep pace.

I’m not asking the Chargers to pull off the upset here. Getting more than a touchdown gives us room for Kansas City to win a close game, and I think Herbert does enough to keep Los Angeles within that number.

Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 over the Buffalo Bills 

Rundown: I think there’s more amiss in Buffalo than people think, and a blocked Harrison Mevis field goal has saved the Bills’ defense from a lot of scrutiny this week. 

The Bills defense ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed per rush and 27th per pass, and they face a more than solid Raiders offense that ranks 13th in offensive EPA. 

I expect the Raiders’ offensive stars in Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers to eat against this gettable defense, helping Las Vegas cover if not win outright.

Green Bay Packers -1 over the Dallas Cowboys

Rundown: This same matchup was an electric shootout on Sunday Night Football a year ago, and I expect similar fireworks on Sunday night considering how potent these offenses have looked and how porous their defenses have performed. 

In a matchup like this, give me the team that hasn’t needed to exhaust all possible options to fix their defense, such as bringing in new coaches midseason and holding players only meetings. 

Stops will be hard to come by in this one, but I trust the Packers defense to at least have more of a coherent gameplan.