TST Best Bets: October 4, 2026

Week 4 of the NFL season has arrived, and this column is due for a bounce-back after back-to-back weeks under .500 followed a strong Week 1 debut.

Let’s get straight to it as we pick every game on Sunday’s slate, starting with the Lock of the Week.

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Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over the New York Giants

Rundown: The lock of the week panned out terribly last week, with the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks losing outright as 8.5-point favorites against the Commanders.

While it seems simple to just pick big favorites against teams we think are terrible as our lock each week, we’re going against conventional wisdom here and putting all of our stock in the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona has a clear advantage through the air, with Jacoby Brissett looking more than serviceable and a solid group of weapons led by Trey McBride. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston’s arm looks cooked, taking away much of the upside that makes his gunslinger approach worth tolerating in the first place.

Jeremiyah Love is also starting to find his groove, rushing for 90 yards on 21 carries last week. If the Cardinals can get that run game cooking alongside what Brissett is giving them through the air, this offense is going to continue to shock people all season.

I trust Arizona to move the ball much more consistently than New York, and with less than a field goal to cover, give me the Cardinals.

Washington Commanders +4.5 over the Indianapolis Colts

Rundown: Speaking of the Commanders, David Blough was in his bag in just his third game as an NFL offensive coordinator, finding ways to attack arguably the league’s best defense in Seattle.

Jayden Daniels’ injury seemed like it would suck the life out of Washington’s season before it ever really began. Instead, with their star quarterback potentially returning next week and Blough already generating buzz, the Commanders suddenly look like a feisty team.

That’s enough to make me hesitant to lay 4.5 points against Washington in a 6:30 a.m. ET kickoff in London. These overseas games can get wonky, and I expect the Commanders to keep this one close.

The Colts defense finally showed some life against Houston last week, but one decent outing hasn’t sold me on that unit. Marcus Mariota and this Washington offense should still be able to move the ball, so give me the Commanders plus the points.

Buffalo Bills -7 over the New England Patriots

Rundown: I picked against Buffalo covering the same seven-point spread last week, thinking its shaky defense would finally let an inferior opponent hang around.

Instead, the Bills turned the ball over five times and still won by more than a touchdown.

I have a hard time seeing Buffalo lose the turnover battle again this week. Josh Allen is unlikely to have two sloppy games in a row, while Drake Maye is throwing so many interceptions that fans on social media are running out of sandwich names to call them.

Maye looks like he’s lost his confidence, and pointing to things like blood on the ball doesn’t do much to change that impression. I don’t expect him to turn it around enough this week to keep pace with Buffalo’s offense, so I’m laying the touchdown.

New York Jets +3.5 over the Chicago Bears

Rundown: This was my runner-up for Lock of the Week, as I flat out think the wrong team is favored here.

Chicago’s 27-7 rout of Philadelphia was an awesome moment for Ben Johnson and company, with Case Keenum turning back the clock to his 2017 season in Minnesota. But with Tyson Bagent starting this week, I’m not expecting the Bears to pick up where Keenum left off.

Chicago’s defense isn’t giving its backup quarterbacks much room for error, and I don’t trust Bagent to keep this offense rolling without Caleb Williams. The Jets deserve more credit than this line is giving them.

New York ranks 11th in offensive EPA and 13th in defensive EPA, and could easily be 2-1 if not for Aaron Glenn’s terrible clock management late in Week 2 against Green Bay.

I expect Geno Smith to keep cooking in what has been a big bounce-back season for the veteran quarterback. Give me the Jets to win outright, with the extra half-point making this pick even better.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals

Rundown: I’m starting to suspect the “Cincinnati has fixed its defense” storyline from the first two weeks might be a fraud.

The Steelers offense, particularly Aaron Rodgers, has looked pitiful in three of four games this season, but went off against the Bengals in Week 3. Cincinnati’s early defensive performances against Tampa Bay and Houston also look less impressive now that we’ve seen how much those offenses have struggled.

Trevor Lawrence presents a much tougher test. He’s put together 11 quarters of MVP-level football through three games, with one ugly fourth quarter against Denver in Week 2, and I don’t trust this Bengals defense to slow him down.

I expect Liam Coen’s offense to get to 30 points without much trouble. Joe Burrow should keep Cincinnati in it, but I don’t see him doing enough to win by a field goal or more. Give me Jacksonville plus the points.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles

Rundown: The Eagles are 0-3 against the spread this season, and I know that because I’ve lost money on them every single time.

Philadelphia’s defensive additions had me believing this unit could get back to its Super Bowl form. As disappointing as that defense has been, though, the offense has been even worse. Firing Kevin Patullo hasn’t made it any less predictable.

Nothing sums up those issues better than how the Eagles have tried to get rookie first-rounder Makai Lemon involved. His strengths over the middle aren’t a natural fit for Jalen Hurts, so Philadelphia has leaned on screens that might be the least convincing attempts to disguise a play you’ll see at this level.

After getting blown out by the Bears with a backup quarterback and barely beating the Titans, the worst team in the NFL, in Week 2, I’m ready to say the Eagles are straight up not a good football team.

The Rams are desperate for a win after their collapse against Denver last week, and Philadelphia looks like a good team to get right against. Give me Los Angeles to win and cover.

Green Bay Packers -3 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rundown: I feel disgusted even considering putting money on this game.

The Packers haven't been able to stop a cold, but they’re facing a Tampa Bay offense that ranks dead last in EPA and is turning to an undrafted rookie quarterback because of injury. Bleh.

Jalon Daniels wasn’t a standout college quarterback, and his early opportunity in the NFL has more to do with his tools than anything he’s shown as a processor. Even against this defense, I don’t expect his first NFL outing to go well after being thrust into the spotlight this soon.

I’ll reluctantly lay the field goal with Green Bay to stop the bleeding in a season that already feels like it’s falling apart.

Baltimore Ravens -11.5 over the Tennessee Titans

Rundown: I don’t usually love backing the Ravens with a spread this large, given how often they let teams hang around late when they should be closing the door.

But Tennessee’s back-to-back one-score losses give off a sense of competence that I’m not really buying.

I don’t hate the Titans defense, and I’ve actually liked what their defensive line has shown over the last two games. Still, I don’t trust Cam Ward to move the ball consistently against Baltimore.

The Ravens should control the clock with Derrick Henry facing his former team for the first time. I expect Tennessee’s defense to spend too much time on the field to keep this within the number.

Dallas Cowboys +3 over the Houston Texans

Rundown: Both head coaches made game management decisions last week that knocked them several rungs down my list of NFL coaches I trust.

Still, I think Dallas is the better team. Houston might need this one more, but I’ll take the team I believe in plus the points.

The Cowboys offense looked great in Brazil, and their defense looked serviceable, which is a huge upgrade from where it started the season. Joey Porter Jr. is also expected to be available Sunday for his Dallas debut. I’m curious how many snaps he’ll get, but this secondary could use any help it can get.

Houston’s offense is once again hamstrung by its lack of a run game, and that’s before even getting into C.J. Stroud’s middling play. I trust Dallas more to put points on the board, so give me the Cowboys.

Minnesota Vikings -10 over the Miami Dolphins

Rundown: This game has shutout written all over it.

Minnesota has been awesome defensively all season, and I can’t find much to like about Miami’s offense. The Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league in just about every offensive metric, and now they’ve lost their only star in De’Von Achane.

Without him, I don’t see how Miami moves the ball consistently enough to make this a game. Ten points is a lot to lay, but I trust the Vikings to cover against an offense that might struggle just to score.

Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs

Rundown: I’m buying all the Raiders stock ahead of Week 4, as the national media still isn’t giving Las Vegas enough credit for its 3-0 start. 

I wrote about it ahead of Week 1, but the Raiders’ wacky offseason of trying to rebuild the defense in the aggregate following the Maxx Crosby trade, only to get their star pass rusher sent right back to them, has turned this defense into a unit with a ton of depth to complement its pass rush. 

Kansas City looked sluggish offensively for much of its game against Miami, but the Dolphins didn’t have enough offense to make the Chiefs pay for it. I expect Las Vegas to give them a much tougher time.

Brock Bowers looked great in his Week 3 return, and the Raiders have been solid on the ground. That should be enough offense to keep this close in what I expect to be a low-scoring game, so give me Las Vegas plus the points.

Denver Broncos +3 over the San Francisco 49ers

Rundown: It’s hard to bet against the 49ers right now. They look like the best team in the league, and Brock Purdy has put himself at the top of the early MVP conversation.

Still, I think that has more to do with who San Francisco has played than Purdy taking some massive leap in his fifth season. The 49ers’ last two opponents rank 30th and 32nd in pass defense by EPA. Now they face Denver’s elite secondary with a banged-up receiver room.

Purdy leads the league with a 133.1 passer rating, but the Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to a combined 76.7 rating. That would rank 29th among quarterbacks this season, so this is a pretty steep jump in difficulty.

I expect Purdy to come back down to earth here. As long as Denver stays within two scores heading into the fourth quarter, I trust the Broncos to do what they’ve done best and turn it on late. Give me Denver plus the field goal.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 over the Seattle Seahawks

Rundown: I have a sneaky feeling the Chargers win this game outright.

Yes, the coaching additions and the return of their tackles haven’t come close to living up to the offseason hype. The Chargers don’t look impressive right now, but they’re not Dolphins- or Titans-level bad, and they’re not going to lose every game.

Seattle’s loss to Washington could just be a blip after a huge winning streak spanning two seasons, but I’m keeping an eye on whether this defense is starting to regress. The Seahawks have much less depth than last year, and David Blough found plenty of ways to exploit them last week.

That has me wondering if Mike McDaniel can put together a game plan to finally pick this Chargers offense up off the floor. I’m taking the touchdown, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Los Angeles steals this one.

Detroit Lions -3.5 over the Carolina Panthers

Rundown: In just three weeks, the Panthers defense has given up nearly a 60-burger to the Bears and somehow brought Deshaun Watson’s career back from the dead by letting the Browns rally to win in Week 3.

I’m not going to love backing Detroit as a favorite this season, as its defense makes a backdoor cover feel possible every week. But this Lions offense should be able to go off against a Carolina defense that has already made struggling quarterbacks look great.

I trust Detroit to put up enough points to cover, even if its defense makes us sweat late.