TST Best Bets: September 27, 2026

Week 3 is here, and the early contenders have their first chance to separate themselves from the pack. Five of Sunday’s matchups feature teams sitting at 1-1, including Ravens-Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro and Rams-Broncos under the lights. A win puts one of those teams above .500, but how they get it could tell us more about where they stand.

Meanwhile, the unbeaten teams will try to keep their starts going, and the winless teams are still searching for answers. 

After going 8-5 in Week 1, the column hit a setback with a 5-8-1 record in Week 2, but we’re looking to bounce back Sunday. For all of your NFL betting picks, here are today’s TST Best Bets, brought to you by BetOnline.ag. Click here to join. All new players receive a 50% welcome bonus and up to $250 in free bets.

Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks -8.5 over the Washington Commanders

Rundown: This is the classic West Coast to East Coast trip with a 10 a.m. Pacific kickoff, which may be the only reason this spread isn’t larger.

The Seahawks have looked like the best team in football through two weeks; Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the early Offensive Player of the Year front-runner, the defense still looks like the best in the league and even backup quarterback Drew Lock leads the NFL in passer rating.

Washington, meanwhile, will start backup Marcus Mariota and has struggled to stop anybody on defense. I’d expect Seattle to be favored by double digits if this game were at home.

The early kickoff is worth considering, but the Seahawks are 7-1-1 against the spread under Mike Macdonald when traveling across three time zones.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 over the Buffalo Bills

Rundown: There may not be two teams with more different vibes surrounding them right now than the Chargers and Bills.

However, while the Bills are off to another great September, their defense looks to have taken a step back since Sean McDermott’s departure. If there were ever a time for Mike McDaniel’s struggling offense to have a get-right game, this would be it.

The Chargers rank 31st in offensive EPA through two games, but there is too much talent on that side of the ball for that trend to hold. 

I expect the Chargers to score enough to keep this a game against the red-hot Bills. Even if Buffalo pulls away, Los Angeles could still find a backdoor cover.

Carolina Panthers -1.5 over the Cleveland Browns

Rundown: We were hesitant to back Carolina as a road favorite in this column last week, and it burned us, as the Panthers routed the Falcons 34-3.

The Panthers are road favorites again this week, and we’re rolling with them despite the Browns’ upset over Tampa Bay. Even in that win, Cleveland struggled to run the ball. The Browns have just 131 rushing yards through two games and rank 29th in EPA per rush.

Carolina’s run defense has struggled too, so Cleveland has an opportunity to get something going on the ground. But if the Browns can’t take advantage, a lot will fall on Deshaun Watson against a Panthers defense that leads the league in takeaways.

New York Jets +6.5 over the Detroit Lions

Rundown: The Jets have been a somewhat pleasant surprise this season, first handling the Tennessee Titans in the season opener before leading the majority of the way in an overtime loss against Green Bay. 

While the Lions should be the clearly better team, I am not eager to lay nearly a touchdown with this Detroit defense looking like it has. 

While the backdoor cover is always open against this Lions defense, if Jared Goff and company don’t put together another 30-point performance like last week, then an outright upset is very in play. 

Tennessee Titans +2.5 over the New York Giants

Rundown: Tennessee doesn’t need to win outright here; its defense just needs to keep the Giants within reach. With Jaxson Dart out and New York preparing Jameis Winston to start on a short week, I’ll take the points with the Titans.

Houston Texans -1.5 over the Indianapolis Colts

Rundown: Something has got to give in this matchup of the moveable force of the Colts defense versus the stoppable object that is the Texans offense. 

Houston’s offense showed significant signs of life against Buffalo in Week 1, but that performance now looks like a mirage after being held to six points against Cincinnati. 

However, this is a matchup that C.J Stroud and company are comfortable in. 

The Texans have won five straight against Indianapolis, who currently rank 32nd in defensive EPA this season. 

Kansas City Chiefs -10 over the Miami Dolphins

Rundown: Miami is the only team without a sack through two games, and giving Patrick Mahomes time to throw is a tough way to slow down Kansas City.

The Chiefs’ running game has been just as difficult to stop. If Mahomes helps build an early lead, Kenneth Walker III gives Kansas City a way to keep moving the ball and drain the clock, making a late Miami cover less likely.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers

Rundown: I don’t love laying more than a field goal for a road favorite in an AFC North divisional matchup at all.

With that being said, I don’t think this line is fully reflective of how terrible the Steelers offense has been this season. 

Pittsburgh is ranked 32nd in offensive EPA this season, and the situation with Aaron Rodgers currently looks untenable. 

The former great quarterback’s lack of mobility was a major weakness last season, but has reached the point where it’s completely hamstrung the offense’s downfield passing attack.

Cincinnati has established itself as a contender this season with its new and improved defense, and I expect them to handle business in their first divisional road test. 

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 over the New England Patriots

Rundown: Drake Maye’s 1:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio has been the story of the Patriots’ season thus far, and I’m not expecting a bounceback this Sunday.

The Jaguars had won nine straight before last week’s loss to Denver. If Jacksonville can pressure Maye, his turnover struggles could give Trevor Lawrence extra chances to build a lead. With Maye opening the season the way he has, I’m far more confident in Jacksonville at quarterback heading into this matchup.

San Francisco 49ers -8 over the Arizona Cardinals

Rundown: Arizona’s blowout loss to Seattle was part of a larger problem: The Cardinals have lost five straight NFC West games by at least 17 points with Jacoby Brissett starting. San Francisco has won each of its first two games by 20 or more, and I’m backing the 49ers to pull away at home.

Minnesota Vikings -1 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rundown: Baker Mayfield has had an absolutely terrible start to the season. We’ve gotten all the turnovers and risks that come with his gunslinger approach, without much of the payoff, and now he faces Brian Flores’ defense.

I underestimated Flores’ unit against Chicago last week, and it made me pay, busting my lock of the week by holding Ben Johnson’s offense to a whopping three points. I shudder to imagine what Mayfield and this sputtering Tampa Bay offense will look like against it Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens -3 over the Dallas Cowboys

Rundown: Dallas has already had trouble containing quarterbacks who run, giving up 126 rushing yards to Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels through two games. That’s a bad sign with Lamar Jackson next, especially when the Cowboys also have to account for Derrick Henry.

I expect Baltimore to give Henry a bigger role after getting away from him in last week’s loss. Dallas has the offense to make this competitive, but the Ravens should be able to control the pace and cover a spread of a field goal.

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 over the New Orleans Saints

Rundown: The Raiders’ 2-0 start has been a surprise, but their defense has given them a real foundation. Las Vegas held Miami to 13 points and the Chargers to 14, with the upgraded linebacker corps of Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker making an impact alongside Maxx Crosby.

New Orleans is 1-1, though Tyler Shough and the Saints’ offense deserve credit for last week’s comeback against Baltimore. I expect a close game between two teams that have looked better than many expected, so I’ll take the Raiders’ defense and the points.

Denver Broncos +2 over the Los Angeles Rams

Rundown: I think this line gives the Rams more credit for what they were expected to be than what they’ve shown so far. Their defense was picked apart by San Francisco in Australia, and Monday’s win over the Giants became a much easier test once Jaxson Dart left the game.

Myles Garrett is on injured reserve, so I don’t expect the Rams to shut down Bo Nix, even if Denver’s offense has been slow out of the gate. Los Angeles is likely to be without Puka Nacua, which would leave Davante Adams facing plenty of Patrick Surtain II without another star receiver drawing attention across the field.

Neither offense has an easy matchup here, and I expect a close game. Give me Denver at home plus the points.