TST Best Bets: September 13, 2026

The first Sunday of the NFL season has finally arrived, bringing a full slate of action and plenty of excitement for bettors everywhere. 

While the Seahawks-Patriots and Rams-49ers matchups partially quenched the thirst of a football-starved nation, nothing compares to a full Sunday slate of games.

On Sundays this season, TST Best Bets is changing things up. Instead of our usual two selections, we’ll be making a pick for every game on the schedule. From the 1 p.m. ET window through the afternoon slate and Sunday night’s finale, every matchup will get a pick. 

We’ll also name one lock of the week, the wager we feel most confident about cashing, to headline each Sunday’s card.

For all of your NFL betting picks, here are today’s TST Best Bets, brought to you by BetOnline.ag. Click here to join. All new players receive a 50% welcome bonus and up to $250 in free bets.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers -6 over the Atlanta Falcons

Rundown: How many Week 1 starting quarterbacks in the last decade have been worse than 2026 Cooper Rush?

The former Cowboys’ backup who once went 4-1 as a starter in 2022 was abysmal for the Ravens last season, and was supposed to be the third-string for the Falcons this season before both of their injury-prone options at quarterback this season got hurt. 

Not only that, but the Falcons are not even fortunate enough to get a healthy Cooper Rush to open the season, as the longtime backup has experienced back spasms in the lead-up to Sunday but is still expected to play. 

Pittsburgh’s decision to bring back 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and replace Mike Tomlin with Mike McCarthy did not generate much excitement nationally, but the addition of Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator should keep the Steelers among the league’s better defenses.

Graham’s units in Las Vegas consistently performed better than their talent level suggested across most advanced metrics. He now inherits an elite group of pass rushers backed by a talented secondary.

The Steelers should not need to score much more than double digits to cover this spread, making Pittsburgh our lock of the week for Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals 

Rundown: Much of the deserved criticism directed at Cincinnati’s defense throughout the Joe Burrow era has overshadowed some legitimate concerns with Zac Taylor’s offense.

The Bengals are 1-3 in their last four season openers, and the much-maligned defense has not been the main culprit.

Despite their overwhelming talent offensively, the Bengals have failed to score more than 20 points in each of those four games. Their lone victory came against Cleveland last season, when Burrow threw for just 113 yards.

Given that history, I don’t trust Cincinnati’s offense in this matchup. The defense added significant talent during the offseason, but opening against this explosive Tampa Bay offense with a healthy and freshly paid Baker Mayfield is a tough draw.

New Orleans Saints +7 over the Detroit Lions

Rundown: The Saints’ retooled offense has generated plenty of excitement in New Orleans, especially after the addition of Travis Etienne and with Tyler Shough entering his second year at the helm.

Vegas is not giving New Orleans much respect, as this is the second-largest spread of the week. However, the Saints’ new-look offense is in a good position to make an immediate impression against a Lions defense still missing both of its star safeties.

I don’t expect New Orleans to win outright, but this offense should move the ball well enough to keep the game within a touchdown.

New York Jets +1.5 over the Tennessee Titans

Rundown: I refuse to wager any U.S currency on the Titans until we see some legitimate growth from Cam Ward. 

Preseason isn’t everything, but the concerning flaws in Ward’s game, particularly his ability to protect the ball and his pocket presence, appear to remain and may have even regressed.

Reporters in Tennessee are losing their credentials for criticizing Ward’s preseason performance, and all of this leaves me with very little hope for the Titans this season.

The Jets, while not a paragon of competency and success by any means, have had a much better offseason. While Geno Smith struggled mightily in Las Vegas last season, his arm adds a new dimension to a New York offense that was hamstrung in the passing game with Justin Fields at quarterback.

Garrett Wilson told the media this week that a playoff berth is “very realistic” for New York this season, and while I’m not completely drinking the Jets’ Kool-Aid this year, I’m confident they’ll be better than the Titans. 

Baltimore Ravens -3 over the Indianapolis Colts

Rundown: With Trey Hendrickson joining an already talented roster, the first year of Jesse Minter’s tenure in Baltimore should be defined by an absolutely elite defense.

Minter consistently produced units in Los Angeles that played better than the sum of their parts, and he now has blue-chip talent to work with at every level.

The Colts have typically started fast under Shane Steichen, but asking Daniel Jones to face this Minter-led defense in his first game back from a torn Achilles is a brutal proposition.

Chicago Bears -3 over the Carolina Panthers

Rundown: Ben Johnson’s lofty goal of surpassing the 2013 Denver Broncos as the best offense in NFL history is not something I’m counting on for the Bears this season, but I do think they will be able to move the ball well against Carolina. 

Carolina added some notable defensive talent in Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, but I’m very optimistic about the growth we could see from Caleb Williams in his second year under Johnson. Sunday presents a good opportunity for that progress to become immediately apparent.

I don’t love Chicago’s defense entering the season, but I trust Williams and the Bears’ offense to score more than Bryce Young and company can match.

Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 over the Cleveland Browns

Rundown: I’m backing the favorite in the most lopsided matchup of the week, even with the gaudy point spread.

Jacksonville largely flew under the radar during its 13-4 season. Most of the national excitement surrounding the Jaguars centers on Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence, but their defense was just as important to that success.

Jacksonville ranked third in defensive EPA, trailing only Houston and Seattle. The Jaguars also boast a sneakily underrated group of pass rushers and one of the league’s best run defenses.

Cleveland will start Deshaun Watson after his offseason competition with Shedeur Sanders, and nothing Watson has put on tape with the Browns gives me any confidence in him against this stout Jacksonville defense.

Houston Texans +1 over the Buffalo Bills

Rundown: The extra point Houston is getting here is unlikely to matter, but this line is in the wrong direction. 

Josh Allen is 0-4 in four career trips to Houston, where the Bills have never scored more than 20 points and have suffered two particularly gruesome losses in their last two visits.

In 2025, Allen was sacked eight times in a Thursday Night Football loss to a Texans team starting Davis Mills. 

However, that pales in comparison to Buffalo’s loss to Houston in 2024, in which Allen completed nine of just 30 passes against DeMeco Ryans’ defense. 

This Houston defense at home has done more than enough to be favored heading into this game, and should be able to hold one of the league’s best quarterbacks to one of his worst games of the season for the third consecutive year. 

Las Vegas Raiders -3 over the Miami Dolphins

Rundown: The first offseason of the Klint Kubiak era for the Raiders has shown a clear organizational direction for a franchise starved for competency. 

Following the trade of Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas went and completely rebuilt its linebacker corps in free agency with two former Georgia Bulldogs in Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker. 

Then, the Crosby trade was rescinded, which has, in a roundabout way, led to a Vegas defense that now looks pretty promising on paper. 

On offense, the Raiders made it clear that improving the offensive line was a major priority by giving a massive contract to All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum, which should help open things up for Ashton Jeanty, who was hit behind the line of scrimmage at an astonishing rate last season. 

These moves display a level of competency that does not appear to exist in Miami, where head coach Jeff Hafley is already saying that “success is not going to be measured in wins and losses this season.”

Against a Dolphins team already tempering expectations before Week 1, I’m comfortable laying three points with the Raiders at home.

Minnesota Vikings -1 over the Green Bay Packers

Rundown: I trust Brian Flores’ defense in this matchup, especially at home against a Packers offense missing Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is technically on the commissioner’s exempt list rather than suspended, but either way, Green Bay will be without the centerpiece of its rushing attack.

With the spread sitting at only one point, this is essentially a bet on Minnesota to win at home. I’ll trust the healthier roster, the better defense and O’Connell’s ability to get the most out of Kyler Murray.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 over the Washington Commanders

Rundown: The Commanders’ protection issues were the story of last season, as sophomore star quarterback Jayden Daniels struggled to stay on the field amidst multiple injuries. 

The news of Laremy Tunsil’s torn triceps makes it hard to be optimistic that Washington will be able to protect its young quarterback. 

Washington is fortunate to be playing an Eagles team without offseason acquisition Jonathan Greenard, but the Eagles’ pass rush should still be able to flip this game at Lincoln Financial Field, which will allow Saquon Barkley and company on the other end to play ball control and win this game handily. 

Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 over the Arizona Cardinals

Rundown: Laying nearly double digits in Week 1 is uncomfortable, but Los Angeles has a clear advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup.

Justin Herbert has shredded Arizona in two career meetings, averaging more than 310 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. With a redesigned offense built around his strengths, the Cardinals’ defense could be in for a long afternoon.

Arizona’s offense has some promise, but the Chargers have the defensive talent to prevent this game from becoming a shootout. The Cardinals lost six of their final nine games last season by more than two scores, and I expect Los Angeles to pull away for another lopsided defeat.

Dallas Cowboys -3 over the New York Giants

Rundown: Dallas’ dominance in this rivalry is too significant to ignore. The Cowboys have won nine of the last 10 meetings, and 14 of their last 15 victories over New York have come by at least three points.

The Giants’ pass rush is legitimately intimidating with Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Arvell Reese, but Dallas still has enough offensive talent to withstand that pressure. I also expect the Cowboys’ rebuilt defense to make life difficult for a New York offense that remains more promising than proven.