It’s closing weekend for the summer meet at Del Mar, and that means one major thing: a 2-year-old showcase.
On Saturday, the fillies take center stage in the $300,000 Grade 1 Debutante. One of my favorite things to track about the many graded stakes around the country is how predictive they are for future success, and the Debutante stands out as an incredibly important indicator of just that: since 1999, 15 of the 27 winners went on to win another graded stakes. That’s a remarkable strike rate.
Trainer Bob Baffert, as with many of the stakes in Southern California, is the winningest trainer in the race’s history with 12. He’ll send the top 2 favorites to the gate this weekend, and if you wanted to cash on a major ticket in the late sequence, you’ll have to try to beat him here.
Let’s meet the field, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re wagering in Southern California, check out our partners at AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $50 for new customers.
Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. 7 furlongs, dirt. 2YO Fillies. $300,000.
1. Panda Listen. 8/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
Panda Listen is the absolute wildcard in this field, coming out of a pair of Ohio-bred stakes races to start her career. She crushed the field last out at Thistledown in Cleveland, and makes her way west for trainer Brendan Walsh. I think she’s outmatched, but don’t be stunned if the ever-capable Kazushi Kimura gives her every shot, and she gets a nice check here.
2. Dear Diary. 8/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Richard Mandella
Trainer Richard Mandella will send Dear Diary back to the gate on a quick two week turnaround - a sign he thinks she’s in terrific condition. She has been on the track once, finishing a driving 2nd. The move to 7 furlongs will suit her running style; she’ll need to get out of the gate much better if she expects to compete here, but the experience from her debut should help. It’s a tough ask to win a Grade 1 as a maiden, and I think it’s probably out of reach today.
3. Avalon Rose. 15/1. Jockey: Julien Leparoux. Trainer: Robert Hess, Jr.
If you’re looking for a solid longshot who can rally for placing, Avalon Rose checks that box in a serious way. Jockey Billy Antongeorgi took her to the lead on debut at Ellis Park, only to falter in the stretch; current jockey Julien Leparoux showed more patience, and she rallied from off the pace at Del Mar to break her maiden at Del Mar a month ago. I don’t think she gets up for the win here, but a spot in the trifecta is certainly on the table.
4. Crazy Hot Mess. 12/1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Peter Miller.
A 3rd-place finisher last out in the Grade 3 Sorrento, Crazy Hot Mess picks up veteran jockey Joel Rosario for a chance at a Grade 1. She was impressive in the slop at Ellis Park on debut, winning easily against 8 opponents in mid-July. She’ll have to take a major step forward today to compete, and while that’s always a possibility with 2-year-olds, it’s unlikely for today’s race.
5. Free Closer. 8/1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
A Reddam Racing homebred, Free Closer is the best of the Cal-bred 2-year-old fillies. She exits a win CTBAB - a state-bred stakes for 2-year-olds. Both of her runs in Southern California have been top notch; her one try against better company in Kentucky proved disastrous. I think she’s got a bright future, but those wins will come in state-bred company, or as an older filly.
6. For The Win. 12/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: George Weaver.
Trainer George Weaver is on a tear with 2-year-olds, and ships For The Win west from Kentucky for the Debutante. She was 2nd last out to Manuka Honey, who ran everyone off their feet; not to be outdone, For The Win finished a full 3 ½ lengths ahead of the next contender. We’ve seen a ton of ship-and-win runners do very well this meet - add For The Win to that list, as I think she hits the board today.
7. Well Versed. 12/1. Jockey: Tyler Baze. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Well Versed is a Spendthrift homebred, and they clearly have high hopes: she’ll give it a go in her 2nd start, coming out of 2nd-place finish to race favorite Miss Monica. Like For The Win, it’s worth mentioning she finished over 10 lengths better than the next contender. I think she’s got a bright future, but today is a hill too far.
8. Holmby. 4/1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Holmby enters the race with the best resume, undefeated in 2 starts, including last out in the Grade 3 Sorrento. She’s the rare Indiana-bred to have success in Southern California, but the results speak for themselves. What also speaks for itself - that jockey Juan Hernandez will be aboard stablemate Miss Monica, leaving jockey duties to Ricardo Gonzalez. Gonzalez is more than capable, but he isn’t a 3,000 race winner like Hernandez is. She’s a capable horse, and a win here wouldn’t stun, but the tea leaves say look elsewhere.
9. Miss Monica. 8/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Miss Monica will be the favorite at post time, exiting a dazzling debut under a hand ride for trainer Bob Baffert. As I wrote about Holmby, I think the connections are more than tipping their hand with the booking of Juan Hernandez. She has followed a typical workout pattern for a high-level Baffert trainee, and should win today. Her sire, Early Voting, is on a tear; her breeding also suggests she should be more than capable of getting the 2 turns in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies, should she win at Del Mar today.
10. Fast Amy. 8/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
Fast Amy has been good in both starts, the 1st in the highest level maiden at Churchill Downs, where she was part of the pace before faltering late. No matter, she made the move to Ellis Park, where she won impressively on 2nd asking. I love her getting the outside post for starting purposes, and if the Kentucky form we’ve since ship in and win holds up, she’ll be a contender today. I wouldn’t leave her out of any exacta or trifecta plays.
The Sporting Tribune Wager
$3 Late Pick 3, Starts Race 9 ($36): 4,7,9,11 / 9 / 4,7,11. Good Luck!