When the New York Knicks won a classic Game 2 after Victor Wembanyama’s game-winning shot attempt fell short, it was the fourth time in league history that a road team went up 2-0 on their opponent’s homecourt in the NBA Finals.
With the series firmly in the Knicks’ hands, Game 3 represented an opportunity for New York to inch that door closer to shut on the San Antonio Spurs.
But on the road in front of a raucous environment in Madison Square Garden, Wembanyama had easily his best performance of this series, leading the way with 32 points, eight rebounds and six assists as the Spurs narrowly avoided falling down 3-0.
Now, this series that seemed on the verge of being over is now very alive, with the Spurs being priced as slight +2 underdogs to tie the series on the road and bring us back to San Antonio for a pivotal Game 5.
Was Game 3 a blip for the Knicks, who had previously won 13 straight playoff games, or have the Spurs solved their offensive issues they faced early in this series?
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First Pick: San Antonio Spurs +2 over New York Knicks
Rundown: After dominating the Oklahoma City frontcourt duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in the Western Conference Finals, it was surprising to see Wembanyama struggle so significantly against the physicality of New York's defense.
The Knicks' collection of lengthy, physical defenders in Mitchell Robinson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby consistently kept Wembanyama from reaching his preferred spots on the floor, exposing the rawness that still exists in his face-up offensive game.
The biggest difference offensively for the Spurs in Game 3 is that they seemed to figure out how to get the ball to Wembanyama inside, and with that change, the offense has been unlocked.
San Antonio’s guards were much more aggressive in lobbing the ball to Wembanyama deep into the paint, and it allowed him to use his size and most importantly, get to the free throw line.
Wembanyama got to the line nine times in Game 3, and the Spurs so far in this series have had a major advantage at the charity stripe.
Through three games, San Antonio has shot 17 more free throws, and in the second half of Game 3, shot 24 to New York’s eight.
The Spurs are now winning the physicality battle in this matchup, and with that, the series has flipped.
Stephon Castle has consistently made life difficult for Jalen Brunson in this series, holding the Knicks star to just 37% shooting from the field.
We see how lethal the Spurs backcourt defense can be in the Western Conference Finals, when they held back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to shooting just 40% from the field, and Brunson has yet to solve the issues this San Antonio defense presents to smaller guards.
If Wembanyama continues to string together performances like he had in Game 3, then the Spurs will have the major star advantage in this series.
Expect the Spurs to even this series tonight at 2-2 behind a big night for Wembanyama, as the Knicks continue to struggle to generate efficient offense.
Second Pick: New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs – Over 216.5
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Jun 8, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) is guarded by San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) during game three of the 2026 NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden.
Rundown: The Spurs’ highest scoring playoff games this run have all been on the road, as their last eight road playoff games have hit the over.
As the Spurs become better and better at solving the problems presented by New York's defense, expect them to post their highest scoring output of the series tonight, eclipsing the 115 points they scored in Game 3.
New York has additionally hit the over in four of their last six home contests, and should manage to get to the free throw line enough in Game 4 to provide a baseline floor to their offensive performance.