It’s that time of year again: a chance to share my observations from what were three very different preps for Kentucky Derby 152. Churchill Downs employs a qualifying system around the globe to determine the 20 runners in the Kentucky Derby, assigning points to the top finishers in each prep race. I attended three such races: The Grade 3 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park (50 points to the winner); the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park (100 points); and the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
6 total Derby contenders emerged from these races. I’ll share my thoughts on each as an overall contender, and rank them at the end of the article.
Without further ado (woops), here’s what I saw in the 3 Derby 152 Preps I attended.
GRADE 3 SAN FELIPE. SANTA ANITA PARK, MARCH 7.
REPLAY: San Felipe Stakes.
Derby Contenders: So Happy & Potente.
The San Felipe is the penultimate Kentucky Derby prep in Southern California, the prequel to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. The Santa Anita path to winning the Derby is a legitimate one: 4 winners have come from this route since 2012. It’s more than legit.
On San Felipe day, I saw a Potente making only his 2nd career start; his green running style was evident, but the fact that he stalked and continued to get better as the distance got longer caught my attention. I left that day assuming I hadn’t seen the Derby winner, and I still feel that way today. In a weird way, Potente’s running style must confound his trainer, Bob Baffert: more often than not, his style is “get the lead and come get me,” but Potente is clearly better as a grinder. The good news - Potente will get plenty of speed in front of him in Louisville, and the 10 furlongs should be a welcome challenge. He’s not a winner to me, but leaving Baffert off a Derby ticket is a choice.
So Happy was less impressive that day, giving us the sense the two turns and 8 ½ furlongs were just a bit too much. He didn’t run poorly, but his kick in the stretch left much to be desired. His talent is obvious, and after a win in the Santa Anita Derby, he answered many of those questions. Trainer Mark Glatt deserves a ton of credit for seeing through the San Felipe performance - and seeing it as a building block. While his sire, Runhappy, was a champion sprinter, his Grandsire is Kentucky Derby 136 winner Super Saver. His dam, So Cunning, is by Blame, the gold standard of damsires. He’s a massive wild card in the Derby, but as I said after the San Felipe, I wasn’t blown away by his ability compared to the top of the Derby standings.
Potente wins on debut. Photo credit: Santa Anita Park.
GRADE 3 JEFF RUBY STEAKS. TURFWAY PARK, MARCH 21.
REPLAY: Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Derby Contenders: Fulleffort & Stark Contrast.
The Ruby has become a sneaky important race on the Derby trail, with the 2011 Derby winner in Animal Kingdom, and 2022 longshot winner Rich Strike. Others have exited the race to 3-year-old successes, including Seize The Grey, who in 2024 finished 3rd in the Ruby before winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on Derby day, then the Grade 1 Preakness two weeks later. He went on to win the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby that fall.
Fulleffort was an impressive winner of this year’s Ruby, working out a trip after being stuck on the rail to pull away from the field in the late stages of the stretch run. That race itself should land him within the top 8 or so contenders, and wouldn’t be a crazy longshot play should players want to include him in wagers. Between Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox and jockey Tyler Gaffalione he’ll have good, experienced group behind him.
But make no mistake - Fulleffort is a gamble, as he’s never raced on dirt. A legitimate case can be made, however, that being in Cox’s barn at Churchill Downs 6 weeks ahead of the Derby should offer ample opportunity to learn the course. I buy this argument, and will likely be throwing Fulleffort in my tickets for value.
Stark Contrast is a mega-talented son of Caravaggio, but like Fulleffort has never run on dirt. I think he’s right at 50/50 to run in the Derby; if he doesn’t, expect to see him in the Grade 1 American Turf - where he should be amongst the favorites. His race in the Ruby was less eye-popping, but solid nonetheless. He wouldn’t be interesting to me if his connections decide on the Derby - but I’d almost certainly have him on top in the American Turf. The owners, the Amerman Family, sent Ruby winner Endlessly to the Derby - and he was never the same afterward. While trainer Michael McCarthy - trainer of star Journalism - can implore them to stay on the grass, the Derby is a tough race to ignore.
Stark Contrast wins in the Zuma Beach. Photo Credit: Santa Anita Park.
GRADE 1 BLUE GRASS STAKES. KEENELAND, APRIL 4.
REPLAY: Blue Grass Stakes
Derby Contenders: Further Ado & Ottinho.
Only one horse since the turn of the century has even run in the Blue Grass and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby - and that was all the way back in 2007, when Street Sense beat them all to the line on the first Saturday in May. Recently, however, many horses from the Blue Grass have hit the board in the Derby, with 13 such runners since 2000.
Further Ado will try to break that winless streak, and given his romp in the Blue Grass, he might just do it. One of the knocks on horses exiting the Blue Grass is how different the dirt courses at Keeneland and Churchill tend to play; there are few guarantees horses will take to both courses. Further Ado checks a further box: he won November’s Kentucky Jockey Club, run over two turns on the dirt at Churchill Downs. His speed figures have climbed steadily since that race, and he’ll be third up in the form cycle for the Derby. While a 100 point prep winner hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018 - he’s an obvious contender, and one would be foolish to dismiss his chances. The addition of jockey Johnny Velazquez is a major positive, as he’s as good a big race rider as there is in the sport - and he’s on a tear in 2026.
Ottinho did all of his best running late, picking up the scattered pieces 11 full lengths behind Further Ado. Trainer Chad Brown was set to have race favorite Paladin as his Blue Grass runner - like he did a few years ago with Sierra Leone - but an injury has placed Paladin on the injured list for a spell. Enter Ottinho, who had done all his career running at Aqueduct, where he was a likely contender to finish in the top two in the Wood Memorial, and qualify for the Derby that way. He’s not an interesting runner to me; being best of the rest in the Blue Grass does little to get the juices going.
Further Ado kicks away in the Blue Grass. Photo Credit: Keeneland Race Course.
RANKING THE HORSES FROM THE SAN FELIPE, RUBY, AND BLUE GRASS
CONTENDER LOUIE'S FAIR ODDS IN DERBY 152
1. Further Ado 6/1
2. Full Effort 12/1
3. Potente 15/1
4. So Happy 20/1
5. Stark Contrast 50/1
6. Ottinho 99/1