For those of us who live outside the market, Santa Anita is one of those places we largely experience on TV. For those of us in the media, it tends to be a trip for the Breeder’s Cup.
I made the decision to travel for Big Cap Day this year - a chance to take in Santa Anita on one of its own big days - not a weekend dictated by an outside group.
The long flights were met with one of the difficult realities of the sport: the once can’t-miss Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap didn’t draw a field worthy of a Grade 1. To the credit of the racing office, they had secured a Grade 1 winner in Skippylongstocking, who had a fractious moment boarding his flight from South Florida to L.A. Alas, he and Grade 2 winner Westwood are scratches, leaving a short field of 5.
The rest of the card doesn’t seem to care: it’s peppered with bettable races, and competitive fields. This is what horseplayers love on big days: owners of non-stakes horses want to win in front of the big crowd on a marquee day, filling the gates in the undercard races. Saturday is a throwback to those kinds of motives, with a card full of opportunities.
The Grade 2 San Felipe is a Kentucky Derby prep, run at a mile and a sixteenth over the Santa Anita dirt track. Its list of winners is as good as any 3-year-old race in North America, with names like Journalism, Life is Good, Authentic, Bolt D’Oro, Dortmund, and California Chrome amongst its winners just in the last dozen years.
Let’s meet the field, and see if we have a Derby 152 contender in there. If you’re betting in Southern California, be sure to check out AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $150.
The Grade 2 San Felipe. 8 ½ furlongs, dirt. 3-year-olds. $200,000.
1. Flashy Fritz. 30/1. Jockey: Adrian Escobedo. Trainer: Dan Blacker.
Flashy Fritz broke his maiden going two turns over the dirt mile at Del Mar, at the $32,000 claiming level. He’s since winless, and is 1-for-9 lifetime. It’s not good practice to say a 3-year-old race outcome would be shocking, but I expect his odds north of 70/1 by post time.
Comment: first toss.
2. Start the Ride. 12/1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Dan Blacker.
Start the Ride is your Cal Cup Derby winner from mid-January, and I love that trainer Dan Blacker is giving this one a try. He broke his maiden in the Derby - only his second career start - but that was at the San Felipe distance and under very similar conditions. This is a big ask, but don’t be shocked if jockey Armando Ayuso gets this horse into the top 3.
Comment: can hit the board.
3. Secured Freedom. 8/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
My co-host on the Horse Racing Happy Hour podcast Barry Spears has this one on top - and the case is a pretty simple one: the 3 top contenders in this race are all going to the lead, Secured Freedom is the most likely candidate to pick up the pieces. This is his second time routing, and it’s never a bad thing to bet a horse trying something a second time. Not in my top 3, but Barry’s case isn’t without merit.
Comment: not a top contender.
4. Brant. 1/1. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Brant will have to do something most great 2-year-old colts don’t do: carry it over to their 3-year-old campaigns at the same level. He won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in September before a 3rd-place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. The troubling part of that race: he finished behind local Mr. A.P., who is generally not regarded as well as he is. They both finished behind eventual undisputed 2-year-old champ Ted Noffey, and there’s no shame in that. This is what Baffert does, so don’t be surprised if Brant rolls.
Comment: must include.
5. Potente. 9/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Potente is the current Derby trail buzz horse, and enters this edition of the San Felipe off a single race. He won that race by grabbing the lead and holding off hard-charging Captian Shreeve, himself a formidable maiden. The speed figures didn’t wow, and neither did the final time, but the horse racing world was buzzing nonetheless. He’ll have to go the Justify route if he were to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, using this race and the Santa Anita Derby to have at least 3 starts under his belt before Louisville. My clue: Juan Hernandez rides Potente, not Brant.
Comment: must include.
6. So Happy. 2/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Mark Glatt.
So Happy is a tough one, as his sire is champion sprinter Runhappy, and all of his races to this point have been sprints. He won the Grade 2 San Vicente last out - and impresively. It’s worth noting his grandsire is Super Saver, himself a Kentucky Derby winner. I think he’s more than capable of the distance, and is the most likely winner here.
Comment: most likely winner.
7. Robusta. 20/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Robusta tried stakes company for the first time last out, finishing up the track in the Grade 3 Robert B Lewis. Prior to that, he won wire-to-wire in a maiden race at a mile here at Santa Anita. Is he can return to that form, he can get a check, but he’s up against a field of horses with more class than he has.
Comment: toss.
The Sporting Tribune Wager
$.50 Late Pick 5, starts race 7 ($96): 1,5,8,9 / 3,4,5,6 / 1,2,3 / 2,3 / 1,7. Good luck!