In an alternate universe, the Las Vegas Raiders just pushed their record to 5-4 on the season with their second straight win, their third in four games, and their fourth in six games. In this world, however, the Raiders just fell to 2-7 and are seemingly on their way to ending their season with yet another regime change.
Down 10-7 with 4:30 remaining, Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson missed what would have been the tying field goal after a Kyu Blu Kelly interception set the offense up in an incredibly promising position. The Raiders’ defense put together its best performance of the year throughout, but a hobbled Geno Smith lacked control of an offense that was as bad as it's been yet.
Smith threw two more interceptions on Thursday, pushing his league-leading total to 13 through nine games this season. In Smith’s defense, the second interception was almost entirely on rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, who dropped the pass and essentially put it on a platter for the Broncos’ defender to grab.
The 35-year-old quarterback battled through a knee injury late, though it was genuinely puzzling why Pete Carroll refused to turn to backup Kenny Pickett as it became clear Smith’s condition was nowhere near 100%. Pickett was supportive enough on the sidelines, more so than Smith was toward his running back, Raheem Mostert, in a first-half spat that was caught on TV.
Smith’s futility aside, it’s hard to fathom just how many breaks have gone against the Raiders this season. To say this team should be 5-4 and in the playoff hunt sounds like dubious cope, but the difference between the Raiders being dead or alive at this point in this season has come down to three heartbreaking results.
In hindsight, we all should have reconciled with the type of season it was going to be when Chicago’s Josh Blackwell blocked Daniel Carlson’s field goal at the end of regulation to steal a 25-24 win in late September, when there was still a faint scent of hope in the Mojave Desert. Still, even that result can’t compare to the emotional beatdown of the last five days.
Part of why Thursday’s loss is so frustrating is that the lack of production from the offense is a complete 180 from the Raiders' performance against Jacksonville on Sunday, another game that, of course, ended in a heartbreaking loss. A failed two-point conversion at the end of overtime doomed that effort and sent the Raiders to Denver on a short week with a gut-punch.
While Carroll and his coaching staff have become the easy scapegoats in Vegas, the reality is that this was never a one-year job, and the team has been more consistently competitive this season than it was under Antonio Pierce. It’s clear that the correct habits and culture are being built in the facility, but the roster has so many holes that it’s going to be an extended rebuild.
Given that Carroll is the oldest head coach in NFL history at 74 years old, it's fair to question how willing both he and the Raiders are to continue this partnership beyond this season. If I were the one making the call, I’d be reluctant to push Carroll out of his coaching seat, given the fact that this team is just a few breaks away from being in the hunt.
The Raiders aren’t losing week in, week out because of a lack of buy-in or inadequate preparation. The reality is that this team just doesn’t have the roster necessary to push itself across the finish line in many of these close games. The offensive line is patchwork, the secondary is youthful, and the wide receiver room is depleted. They just aren’t there yet.
A silver lining is that because of how much blue-chip talent is needed to revitalize this roster, it’s probably better for the long-term future of the team to be 2-7 right now and in a position to have another top draft pick than it would be to be 5-4 and briefly on the fringe of the playoff standings.
This problem is also unlikely to be resolved next year, meaning the Raiders could have a prime pick in the highly competitive 2027 NFL Draft. Given a few of the high-level assets they have who may not want to play through two or more seasons of a rebuild, GM John Spytek could find it beneficial to go full fire sale in pursuit of an extra ‘27 first or two. That would surely expedite the rebuild.
