Padres Series Preview: Friars hit Citi Field, NL West race tightens through final 12 contests

The Padres visit The Big Apple one last time this season after sweeping the New York Mets at home in late July. As both teams prepare for the final leg of September's stretch-run, here's what's at stake for both clubs entering a big three-game set:

Wrapping up their penultimate homestand on Sunday afternoon at Petco Park, the Padres (82-68, 2nd in NL West) downed the now 109-loss Colorado Rockies with a Coors Field-esque 9-6 victory. San Diego's offense put seven runs on the board through the game's first three frames, including a big three-run homer off the bat of Jackson Merrill. Although the Rox would battle back to make it a one run ballgame in the later innings, Gavin Sheets' two-out, two-run double in the eighth iced the contest, making it all that easier for a clean 1-2-3 ninth inning for Robert Suarez, who notched his National League leading 38th save of the campaign. 

The Mets (77-73, 2nd in NL East) snapped an egregious eight-game skid after salvaging Sunday's series finale with a 5-2 walk-off win over the Texas Rangers. Give all the credit to rookie right-hander Nolan McLean, who fired six shutout innings while striking out seven. The 24 year-old's gem was spoiled when lefty reliever Brooks Raley allowed two runs to knot the contest at two apiece in the seventh inning. After surrendering the lead, the rest of New York's bullpen combined for 3 1/3 scoreless innings, which led to Pete Alonso smacking a three-run shot in the tenth to send Queens into a frenzy.

San Diego wrapped up the month of July with a sweep of the Metropolitans. At the time, New York rolled into the Gaslamp Quarter riding a seven-game win streak and atop their division. The Padres went onto score 19 runs across the three games against them, including a wild back-and-forth thriller, which ended with an Elias Díaz walk-off single.

Pitching matchups

Monday: Padres RHP Michael King (4-2, 2.87 ERA) vs. Mets RHP Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.75 ERA) 4:10 p.m. PT

Michael King will make his second start since returning from the IL in the series opener. Although King didn't possess his best stuff in has last outing the Cincinnati Reds on September 9, he threw five innings and picked up two strikeouts. The key to unlocking vintage Michael King in the postseason will be getting him there healthy. These next two to three ramp up starts before October will be crucial in deciding who starts the first game of a playoff series for San Diego.

Clay Holmes will counter King on the mound. The 32 year-old labored again the Padres on July 30, lasting just 3 2/3 innings while allowing four total runs. He's struggled in his last seven outings, posting a 2-2 record with a 4.81 ERA and 16 walks. Post All-Star break, Holmes owns a near-five ERA.

Tuesday: Padres RHP Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.73 ERA) vs. Mets LHP David Peterson (9-5, 3.77 ERA) 4:10 p.m. PT

Although the Friars took a rough loss against the Reds in his last start, Nick Pivetta dominated Cincinnati hitters for seven shutout innings. He struck out eight in the start and is nine punch outs away from setting a single-season career high. In 10 career appearances against the Mets, Pivetta owns a 4-2 record with a 5.23 ERA and 39 strikeouts.

Over his last seven starts, David Peterson owns a 7.13 ERA while issuing 17 free passes. The inflated ERA is in part thanks to a blow-up start against the Miami Marlins on August 30. He allowed eight earned runs in two disastrous innings against the Fish. He's 5-1 at Citi Field this year with 66 strikeouts. 

Wednesday: Padres RHP Randy Vásquez (5-6, 3.72 ERA) vs. Mets RHP Jonah Tong (1-2, 8.49 ERA) 10:10 a.m. PT

Since the arrivals of J.P. Sears and Nestor Cortes at the trade deadline, Randy Vásquez's spot in the starting rotation came into question. He's now made the most of his recent opportunities. The right-hander has delivered back-to-back quality outings against the Rockies. One of them coming at the house of horrors known as Coors Field. Since August 15, Vásquez owns a 2-1 record, has tossed 15 2/3 innings, and has tallied 16 strikeouts. Depending on how his outing in Queens goes, he could get serious consideration to at least pitch out of the bullpen come October.

Garnering comparisons to San Francisco Giants great Tim Lincecum, Jonah Tong gets the nod for the series finale. The Mets' 7th round pick in 2022 introduced himself to Major League Baseball with an electric debut on August 29 against the Marlins. His debut start ended after five brilliant frames of one earned run and six strikeouts. Since, he's met the other side of the big leagues, getting roughed up by the Rangers in his last start. Tong was unable to get out of the first inning, surrendering six earned runs on four hits. 

Miller & Merrill Company Ltd.

Our 'Who's hot?' preview feature this series highlights an un-hittable Mason Miller and 2024-esque Jackson Merrill.

When Nickleback's 'Burn It To The Ground' blares through Petco Park's speakers, everyone in crowd knows it's time for dominance off the mound. 'The Reaper' Mason Miller is arguably the best reliever in baseball at the moment. Since arriving in San Diego due to the blockbuster trade that sent baseball's no. 3 overall prospect in Leo De Vries to the Athletics, Miller has not only showed up, but has showed out almost every time he enters a game.

As a Padre, Mason Miller possesses a 1.02 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings pitched. His 43.7% strike out rate and 45.2% whiff rate rank in the 100th percentile per Baseball Savant, while his wipeout slider has helped him achieve a Breaking Run Value in the 99th percentile.

In his last 15 appearances out of the Padre bullpen, Miller has a WHIP of 0.57, while striking out 31 batters to just five walks. His most impressive feat as of late however, is his immaculate eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles on September 3.

Switching over to the dish, Jackson Merrill is getting it going. The runner-up for the 2024 Rookie of the Year Award has battled tough injury luck and slumps in his sophomore season, but his recent play could jump start a Padres offense that has looked anemic at various points this year. 

Since September 7, Merrill has launched four home runs, three of them going to the opposite field. He’s at his best when using all parts of the diamond, but especially when pairing it with slugging prowess. Not only does it increase Merrill’s confidence, but it lengthens and deepens San Diego's lineup. A starting nine that is capable of beating great pitching in a variety of different ways. 

Early takeaways

The Padres come into the series two games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and five games up on the Mets for the second NL Wild Card spot. If San Diego can take care of business against New York, not only could that lock them into the no. 5 seed in the National League, but also come closer to tying or jumping beyond the Dodgers in the division.

Strength of schedule still favors the Friars over L.A. and things could get interesting if the Philadelphia Phillies can further beat the Dodgers after capturing the NL East crown at Chavez Ravine on Monday night with a 6-5 extra-innings victory. 

The prospect of hosting a best of five Wild Card series at home is an extremely appealing possibility for San Diego. But, the constant of having to travel to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field remains. 

With just two weeks left in the regular season, a bumpy and thrilling ride awaits. Buckle up.