A'ja Wilson rightfully emerges as WNBA MVP frontrunner after torching Napheesa Collier, Lynx

LAS VEGAS – It was no secret that the Aces’ marquee matchup against Napheesa Collier and the visiting Minnesota Lynx on Thursday would have some bearing on who the eventual MVP award winner would be. Just how drastically it changed the odds was a complete shock.

Wilson torched the Minnesota Lynx for 31 points, shooting 11-of-15 (80 percent) while holding her MVP-candidate counterpart Collier to just 12 points on an unproductive 5-of-13 (38.5 percent) from the field. The three-time winner even recorded a highlight-reel block on Collier in the first quarter, setting the tone for her dominant performance the rest of the night. 

Collier’s defensive possessions on Wilson weren’t nearly as successful. In fact, Wilson’s very first bucket of the game was a crafty turnaround jumper that sent Collier straight to the hardwood after she lost her footing. Another early omen for what turned into a disastrous night for Collier’s MVP campaign. 

As a result of the discrepancy in the two stars’ performance on Thursday, along with the fact that the Aces have won a franchise-record 13 games in a row while the Lynx are stumbling to the finish line, the conversation has now completely shifted in favor of Wilson. And that’s not just based on online sentiments either. 

Collier entered Thursday’s game as a massive -1200 favorite to win the MVP award according to BetMGM. That was as favorable as her odds have been this season, even more favorable than they were before the fateful ankle injury she suffered against the Aces in a 53-point win on Aug. 2 that began the snowball effect that subsequently turned the race on its head.

After a pedestrian game compared to her MVP peer, Collier’s odds took an unprecedented tumble. On Friday morning, Wilson shockingly emerged as the front-runner in betting markets such as Caesars (-120) and FanDuel (-136) to win what would be a league-record fourth MVP after her statement performance on Thursday night. 

Wilson’s Case

When Collier went down late in the third quarter of Minnesota’s historic blowout of the Aces in early August, the implications it would come to have on the WNBA MVP award race would have seemed deeply improbable at best. 

After that loss, the Aces fell to 14-14 and it was Wilson whose availability had been in question to that point. Head and wrist injuries kept her sidelined for a handful of early games, but even while Wilson was in the lineup, Vegas hadn’t had much success despite her individual numbers. 

That 53-point loss had a galvanizing effect on the Aces, because they haven't lost since and have gone from fighting for a playoff berth to being in position to earn the No. 2 seed if they win their remaining regular-season games.

On the other hand, the Lynx managed to go 5-2 during the 20 days that Collier spent sidelined with her ankle injury. Since Collier has rejoined the lineup, the Lynx have gone just 3-2 and have lost both games where she was held below 20 points. 

I tend to believe that the Most Valuable Player award should go to the player who had the best season in a given league, regardless of sport. I don’t subscribe to the 2005-2006 Steve Nash philosophy, which favors winning value over individual statistical dominance, even if it yields less impressive team results. 

Because of that, my own (hypothetical) MVP vote would have gone to Collier last night as she was still holding on to some valuable statistical edges and had decisive head-to-head results against Wilson this season. However, Wilson also took the lead in the scoring title race after the 19-point difference in her and Collier’s outputs. It was already clear that Wilson was the most valuable player in the league to its most literal definition, but now it’s clear she’s had the best season, too.