ATLANTA -- It's draft day, everyone!

Despite us approaching the closing hours and afternoon of the draft -- or Drafternoon (trademark pending) -- there is still more uncertainty at the top of the draft than clarity, and who the Nationals will take first overall at 3pm PT is still open ended.

This has the feel of a messy first round with risers and fallers, with money dictating the majority of how that will play and teams and agents connecting a handful of picks before their selection arises.

There will be top talent fallers, and though I could speculate who (looking at high school shortstops mostly), it would purely be speculation.

Going to play this last mock pretty conservatively, knowing that around 2:50 PT everything will be moot, and I'll be banging my head for not doing this or that. That's why, putting it simplistically, this is simply reporting on what is believed to occur from industry sources to the best of my ability.

All writeups will be short form comments if there is new or more clarified information, and name only for information you can find in the mock from Tuesday morning.

For reference points, you can jump back to recent mocks from The Sporting Tribune.

Mock Draft 1.0 - June 6

Mock Draft 2.0 - July 8

Thanks for tagging along. Let's go for one last mock ride in 2025.

1. Washington Nationals - Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU

Final hour(s) and there isn't clarity. I believe it's down to three players between Anderson, Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits and in that order is the confidence I have it will be said player. Based on conversation, Anderson may have a slight edge over the other pair, but that doesn't come with much confidence.

Willits made jumps towards the top two picks this last week, which some attributed to his price tag compared to his counterparts, and how eye-popping he is on internal models.

With Anderson and Holliday both being represented by Scott Boras, the bonus will be worthy of a Boras client, which would near record-setting territory (more specifically with Holliday, which we'll get to soon).

Though it feels like minimal odds, I'm not ruling out Seth Hernandez or Aiva Arquette.

Just to keep trends: Anderson 40%, Holliday 30%, Willits 23%, Hernandez or Arquette 5%, Field 2%

2. Los Angeles Angels - Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

This still feels relatively simple. Whichever of the three lefties fits the cost. If Anderson is here, he feels like a safe bet to be the pick. If not, the cost between Doyle and Jamie Arnold could dictate which of the pair is the pick.

Willits got a lot of buzz with the Angels at the beginning of the month and into this final week, and it may come as a surprise, but the cost and model might move the needle towards him being the first Angels prep taken in the first-round since Jordyn Adams.

Players who either did not attend the combine or turn in medicals while at the combine are the most frequently mentioned with the Angels with a list that includes Anderson, Doyle, Willits and Ike Irish -- though not Holliday who also did not attend. The guaranteed 75% bonus for the slot could play a factor, though $7.7M is still a big haircut and may not play as large a factor.

JoJo Parker and Kayson Cunningham are super sleeper names for this pick, though they would both demand the $7.7M guaranteed and would only be options if the Angels think they can swing another big name for their 47th pick with a bonus well over $4 million.

3. Seattle Mariners - Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)

A lot of buzz about the room being split in Seattle.

If Anderson gets past the Nationals and Angels, I don't think he falls any further and could be flirting with slot bonus here (probably not $9.5M, but within 5% or so).

Aside from Anderson, the primary decision-makers have Arquette circled to some capacity, while the rest of the room seems to prefer Hernandez. Both players are at the top of their demographic and might warrant a bonus worthy of the title, which could lean into a discount deal with someone like Parker or Kyson Witherspoon, or Jamie Arnold at a higher rate.

It's hard to believe Jerry Dipoto -- who will likely have the final say on the pick -- would take on a risky demographic this high in the draft, but he (and his group, respectfully) may not ever pick this high again. Leaning to Hernandez with limited confidence.

4. Colorado Rockies - Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK)

For as little confidence there is up top, there is plenty of confidence with this connection.

Holliday is bound to go in the first five picks and Colorado very well could have priced him down to four with a record-setting handshake. If, for whatever reason, he is available here and passed, St. Louis is waiting.

If Holliday is taken first overall, and you can assume Anderson is gone as well, this pick will come down to Arquette, Doyle, Arnold, most likely in that order.

5. St. Louis Cardinals - Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)

St. Louis would love a shot at Holliday, but very likely won't get one.

Two names circled after Holliday are Willits and Arnold.

Discount rumors surround this pick between Parker and Billy Carlson, though the discount may not be as notable as previously expected. Bigger discount names here are Irish and Marek Houston.

Just of note to eliminate writing it for each pick following... this pick is a potential (and likely) starting point for the top group of prep shortstops to make a run from 5-15. That group consists of Willits, Carlson, Parker, Cunningham, Steele Hall and Daniel Pierce.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State

Again, from my last mock, it's hard to go against better judgement and not put Carlson here with how tethered Pittsburgh was to him through the spring.

As odd as it sounds, I think the Seattle pick will dictate this pick more than any of the others ahead. If they take Arquette, Hernandez should be available and might supersede Carlson. If they take Hernandez, Arquette has a reasonable chance at being available and might supersede Carlson.

If neither are available, I think it's black and white and is simply just Carlson.

It's a matter of what Pittsburgh's big board actually represents, and I think either Hernandez or Arquette would be above Carlson, but they should be satisfied with whoever of that trio lands here. I'm not ruling out others but have some confidence those three would be the front runners.

7. Miami Marlins - Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)

Regardless of how the six picks ahead run, Miami should be able to land one of the prep shortstops at the top of their board between Willits, Carlson and Parker, in that order.

Another location for discount deals, Irish again comes up as he does from picks 2-11. Gavin Fien is another haircut option.

This is a sleeper spot for Hernandez if he were to fall.

8. Toronto Blue Jays - Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

There is a reasonable chance that one of either Doyle or Arnold will fall, and if not, Carlson would be available here with Willits going to Miami. That's at least the belief from a conservative standpoint and no team going notably under slot.

Parker and Cunningham are in the same Carlson boat for Toronto, and though local scouts don't see Carlson falling beyond this, most feel this is a high mark for Cunningham and a serious landing spot.

I've been leaning preps, but with one of Doyle or Arnold available, and Witherspoon, I'm going with an arm based on recent intel.

9. Cincinnati Reds - Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn

I'm at a crossroads with Cincinnati.

If Hernandez were to be passed over by Seattle and Pittsburgh, I'd have some confidence he'd be selected here. Without that outcome, I think they'd just sit at the top of their board with the best available with dispute over who that is.

Again, playing it conservative, but I'm not ruling out a "down the board" bat with up-the-middle tools like LaViolette or Houston. Witherspoon should also be in the mix with Irish here.

10. Chicago White Sox - JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)

The Parker twins are beloved by the White Sox brass and might even get scooped together with Chicago's top two picks. Though no handshake deal is confirmed to be in place, there have been long-winded rumors of JoJo being priced down to this pick and skip him over past Toronto and discounts where he could land ahead.

Arnold or Doyle may be the falling candidates to see their fall end here. Carlson would also be in play. Cunningham and Tyler Bremner seem like alternative options that won't come to fruition.

11. Athletics - Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Despite how often quick-moving bats like Irish, Gavin Kilen and Brendan Summerhill are linked to this pick, Bremner has really jumped to this pick with specifics over the last two weeks and particularly, the last week.

Splitting hairs here, but the four I mentioned and those picked above are all in play. Add Witherspoon to the mix but probably behind Bremner.

Quick-moving college hitters are mentioned from here towards pick 21 and then begin again from about 27 through the comp round. Just to categorize and not mention each guy by name at each pick: Irish, Houston, Kilen, Summerhill, Wehiwa Aloy, Ethan Conrad, Caden Bodine and Devin Taylor.

12. Texas Rangers - Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)

This is the floor for Carlson, despite any rumors of a team with a large surplus of funds trying to swing him down to the late teens. They'll take him if available.

Parker, Cunningham and Hall are all mentioned regularly here. Sticking with what I've had in each mock.

13. San Francisco Giants - Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

I've heard prep bats over college bats over college arms, which led me to a college arm. Witherspoon seems like a secondary option for every team picking ahead of this and he'll be a value pick for someone in the teens if consensus falls to him being the falling talent. Cunningham also seems like a secondary option for a lot of clubs from about 7-30, so his range in a bit wild and he could be a faller. Houston gets a lot of run here and might be the pick.

14. Tampa Bay Rays - Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)

Would it shock you if Tampa went way off script and flipped the first round around with someone they planned on taking in the comp round? I wouldn't, and you shouldn't either. Expect the unexpected.

Playing it safe though. Bats mostly so splitting hairs between Cunningham and Kilen. Going Cunningham, who is a name at almost every pick from 7-30. Admitadly, this is a place-and-plug more than a good feeling.

15. Boston Red Sox - Gavin Fien, SS, Great Oak HS (CA)

If an arm like Bremner or Witherspoon fall, this could be the floor. One surprise is if Doyle just continues to fall, this could be an incredible value pick where Boston would jump. They are heavily linked to the Tennessee program and the arms in particular, which you can keep an eye on at pick 33.

No arms here for now. Fien has long been linked to both picks 15 and 16, and not as a secondary, but as a primary. College bats also make sense where most are still free.

16. Minnesota Twins - Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona

Fien would be here if not the pick ahead. I'm pretty confident he goes 15 or 16. College bats rule the roost through the rest of the teens and probably slot all across 11-20.

17. Chicago Cubs - Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas

Same group of bats. Aloy has been linked here frequently.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks - Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina

This connection has picked up too much steam in the last week to not have at least some fact. Arizona is heavily on Bodine, and the Slater de Brun connection could still be an overpay connection with their next pick at 29 if he sneaks past Detroit, San Diego and Philadelphia -- a risk I've heard Arizona would take.

19. Baltimore Orioles - Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

Creating waves by acquiring a comp pick to give them the largest bonus pool in draft history, there are so many good and silly rumors around Baltimore this last week, it's hard to know what's true.

They like LaViolette and Xavier Neyens, or at least those are the longest running links to this pick, and they know for certain LaViolette won't last to pick 30 (they have picks 30, 31 and 37). Going with him at the risk of losing Neyens in-between, but this has little conviction. They'll swing a group of different names here and 30, 31, 37.

20. Milwaukee Brewers - Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

Kind of similar to Tampa, they could really swap up the first round with how their model plays. 

I think LaViolette, Summerhill and Kilen also get a lot of play here. Ethan Conrad is a sleeper that is a little less "sleepy" than expected.

21. Houston Astros - Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee

Same group as everyone from 14-20, minus Boston. They'd like LaViolette or Aloy.

I'm not ruling them out on being one of the teams on Gage Wood who has noise in the same 14-22 range.

They like Neyens, but I'm not so sure they love Neyens and will be bidding him with San Diego at 25, and Baltimore at 30 and 31. That bid probably plays in favor of Baltimore.

22. Atlanta Braves - Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas

I was told no on Riley Quick who I had in my last mock. I was told yes on Wood and Patrick Forbes. Wood wasn't available in my last mock and might not be again here, but if he is, I think he's the pick. Kruz Schoolcraft's market begins here.

23. Kansas City Royals - Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)

Everything points to the Royals being able to take their two perceived primary targets in Schoolcraft and Josh Hammond, though with five picks between each other, the Royals could lose out to one of them to Detroit or San Diego, and to a lesser capacity, Philadelphia.

I think they like Schoolcraft more, but they do really like Hammond. I'm playing a game of risk for Kansas City, but they should get at least one of the pair if not both.

24. Detroit Tigers - Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS (OR)

Cunningham is the primary target. He's likely long gone by now, but if he gets here, I see a solid chance this is the end game and he's taken here.

As much as I'd like to re-mock Pierce here, I think they go lefty prep hitter whether that be de Brun, Sean Gamble, Ryan Mitchell, Dax Kilby or others. I've heard college arm for their next pick, so if they pivot and take a college bat or arm here, that same prep group mentioned probably sneaks to their pick at 35.

25. San Diego Padres - Sean Gamble, OF, IMG Academy (FL)

This is a similar blend to Kansas City, Detroit and Baltimore ahead. Neyens, Schoolcraft and de Brun are their top priorities and I'm halfway confident one of them will fall to San Diego. In this scenario, Neyens is available, but again, his bonus may have jumped with Baltimore's new bonus pool.

Going with a gamble, double pun intended, with them taking Gamble, but the three mentioned ahead put me in a pickle.

26. Philadelphia Phillies - Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)

A lot of teams are trying to swing Pierce down, and for whatever reason, other clubs seem to be buying it. I'm a bit leery he gets skipped over in the teens and lands in the 30's, or 40's, and someone like Philadelphia (or San Diego, or a lot of teams in this range) are going to just scoop him at a value, despite maybe having to pay around slot of above.

If not Pierce, same group mentioned above with Detroit and San Diego.

27. Cleveland Guardians - Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest

A lot of names, throwing some darts between here and the end with at least some form of conviction. Bodine has been linked a lot here and could get here. Conrad, Andrew Fischer and Anthony Eyanson are also names I've heard plenty with this pick. It will be a lefty bat with either youth, a wood bat track record, a bitchin' off-speed, or a combination of all of that.

PROSPECT PROMOTION INCENTIVE PICK

28. Kansas City Royals - Josh Hammond, SS, Wesley Academy (NC)

Check back to pick 23. I think they make it happen, so much so, you could swap 23 and 28.

FREE AGENT COMPENSATION PICKS:

29. Arizona Diamondbacks - Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee

I still think they may find a way to get de Brun here. If not, college bats are mentioned regularly with Fischer being the most frequently mentioned. Of note, Fischer's industry value is much higher than this and the lack of defensive value is the only reason he is falling. Don't be stunned if he's a teen pick, or even flirts with a top 10 mention.

30 and 31. Baltimore Orioles - Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA); Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina

As noted, I think Baltimore can financially swing Neyens down to 30 or 31. Pierce is also a buzzy name if Neyens gets plucked.

Though they don't have to, I've heard they'll pair a prep with a collegiate here. I have not heard a single arm linked to Baltimore so sticking with the bats who profile with Baltimore's prototype of power and discipline.

32. Milwaukee Brewers - Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU

Conrad is so heavily linked to Milwaukee and this pick in particular, it's challenging to put anyone else. There's too much noise though for me to feel any confidence in what Milwaukee will do, especially after their draft last year.

Openly, place-and-plug, because I think they'll be holding tight to their model and Eyanson has been a massive leap-frogger from a model perspective.

COMPETITIVE BALANCE ROUND A

33. Boston Red Sox - Brady Ebel, SS, Corona HS (CA)

I've stuck with it for so long, it's hard to move past. This feels like the high mark for Ebel, who has long been attached to Boston similar to Fien at 15 (Fien could potentially fall or be financially shuffled here).

Despite that, I've heard the two Tennessee arms so much this last week, I just don't have confidence that Ebel is superior to A.J. Russell or Marcus Phillips.

34. Detroit Tigers - Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama

If you run back to pick 24, I think Detroit flips a college arm and prep lefty hitter at their early picks. Kind of recreate the same context in reverse from the writeup at 24. Going with the top college arms of Quick, Eyanson and Zach Root who has a lot of players in this range.

35. Seattle Mariners - Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas

Same comments for a lot of the teams picking 26 to the end of Comp A. College pitchers are going to go in a flury and the categorized group is Eyanson, Quick, Root, Forbes and maybe the Tennessee duo.

36. Minnesota Twins - Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana

There's a lot of conviction in Taylor going at either 36 or 38, with a bit less conviction (but enough to mention it) earlier.

37. Baltimore Orioles - Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson

Newly acquired pick, new attained information (or assumption, or speculation, sadly). Again, too many names so placing the most popular mentioned with little conviction -- and no pitchers mentioned. It's more likely this is a swing point for a superior talent and an overslot deal.

38. New York Mets -- Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State

Toolsy college performers. Taylor probably lands here if not 36.

39. New York Yankees - J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss

Guessing an arm on informed speculation, but not much feel. Josiah Hartshorn is a sleeper.

40. Los Angeles Dodgers - Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville; Quentin Young, IF/OF, Oaks Christian HS (CA)

I've stuck with it and have no reason to move off. They'll try and take a falling talent and pair it with an upside prep that fits some of their development traits.

One hot rumor but one that feels like hot steam is doubling down on the Lodise boys here.

42. Tampa Bay Rays - Jaden Fauske, C/OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)

This has been a long link that might even flirt its way into the teens. Fauske and Tampa are connected and it's notable. Mitchell is another name that comes up here and the next pick.

43. Miami Marlins - Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)

I've heard preps, so sticking with preps, but we're 43 deep. Full transparency, I just don't know and am going on gut.

Thanks for tagging along all spring. We'll chat soon. Enjoy the draft!