The first round is set, and there are amazing matchups across the NBA, series that may allow this to be the best opening rounds in recent memory. With that said, I believe that Luka, LeBron, and the Lakers will be able to use their superior shot creation to prevail against Ant and the Timberwolves, Steph and the Warriors will be able to barely stave off Şengün and the Rockets, and the Bucks with Giannis will be too much for Haliburton and the Pacers to handle.
Lakers Best the Timberwolves in Six Games
Firstly, the Lakers have the two best players in this series. Even at his age, the only playoff series where LeBron has been outplayed since joining the Lakers was against Nikola Jokić, who most consider the best player in the world. Similarly, Luka Doncic has never been outplayed in a playoff series in his career. Even in last year’s series against Boston, despite multiple injuries, he led all players in scoring, was second in assists, and first in rebounds. Just having those two gives the Lakers a significant advantage.
Additionally, the Timberwolves’ second scoring option has consistently underperformed in the playoffs. Over his last 15 playoff games, Julius Randle has averaged just 17 points on 35% shooting from the field and 28% from three.
Finally, Luka has proven he can neutralize Rudy Gobert, Minnesota's defensive anchor. He either forces him off the floor or punishes the Timberwolves when they leave him on the court. A prime example is game two of last year’s Western Conference Finals, when Luka hit the game-winner over Gobert to go up 2–0, a shot that seemed to drain the remaining fight from Minnesota. For all those reasons, give me LA to emerge victorious in a relatively easy six game series.
Warriors Conquer Rockets in Hard Fought Seven Games
This series is going to be a war. There may be no team better equipped to handle Steph Curry’s off-ball movement than the Rockets, who arguably have the best athlete in the league in Amen Thompson, who is also an elite defender. Houston has also had substantial improvement across the board from its young core, especially Alperen Şengün.
That said, the Warriors have the two best players for a seven-game series. We’ve seen that even when the rest of the team struggles, Steph and Jimmy can still carry the load and deliver a win like they did on Tuesday. Playoff Jimmy is a real phenomenon. Since joining the Miami Heat in 2020, Butler has averaged nearly 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists on almost 48% shooting in the playoffs. In contrast, his regular-season numbers during that stretch were under 21 points, 6 rebounds, and just under 6 assists on below 50% shooting.
Lastly, experience matters. Among both teams’ top three players, the Warriors boast more Finals experience than the Rockets have total playoff experience. For all those reasons, I like the Warriors to will themselves to victory in a seven-game instant classic.
Bucks Outlast the Pacers in Six Games
This will be a really fun series to watch. Over the last third of the season, the Pacers were playing at a 55–27 pace, good enough for third in the East or second in the West. They even have a fringe All-NBA caliber player in Tyrese Haliburton. As a team, the Pacers are deeper and more complete.
However, the Bucks have the second-best player in the world: Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is also playing his best basketball of his season, averaging a 31-point triple-double in his final eight games. There’s no one on Indiana’s roster who can even begin to slow him down. With Damian Lillard likely returning, Milwaukee will have the top two, or at worst, two of the top three players in the series. With that in mind, I like the Bucks to come out on top in a very entertaining six-game series.