LOUISVILLE, Ken. -- The weather in Kentucky has been lousy lately. Just last week, I built an ark and began the search for two of every animal as a foot of rain fell in a few short days.
Because of the delay in the start of their season, Keeneland moved their Kentucky Derby prep - the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes - to Tuesday. Because of this, I was able to complete a rare feat: I attended two win-and-in races for the Derby in four days. All said and done, I attended the following 100 point, final preps for the Kentucky Derby: the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park; the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
These three races will supply a total of seven starters in the Kentucky Derby: Final Gambit and Flying Mohawk from the Ruby, Rodriguez and Grande from the Wood Memorial, and Burnham Square, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty from the Blue Grass. This is over a third of the starting gate, so it’s a great start on our journey to try to pick the Derby winner.
Here are my thoughts on each race, and each contender coming out of each race. It was a blast getting to cover all of them, and I was impressed by more than a few runners in these preps. For purposes of this article, I’ll go chronologically through the races, and discuss the Derby 151 entrants from each.
JEFF RUBY STEAKS. TURFWAY PARK, KY. MARCH 22, 2025.
Derby 151 starter: Final Gambit. Trainer: Brad Cox.
Running Style: Deep Closer.
Final Gambit, even in the first part of his run in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, was in dead last. The Ruby sported a full field of 12 this year, and he was able to start his maneuvering with about three furlongs remaining. Given that Final Gambit was coming off his first career win, this was more than impressive. His late kick in the race was devastating, and he finished as well as any horse did in any prep around the country. The track had almost no bias whatsoever on that March Saturday, so Final Gambit’s close was legit.
The main issue with Final Gambit is his aforementioned closing style. Deep closers need a lot of things to go right in the Derby, given the massive size of the field (20 horses is a full two-thirds larger than a full Ruby field). Final Gambit got some good news in the races that followed the Ruby: a solid group of four starters should want the lead, which will potentially create a hot pace on the front.
He’s been training over the Churchill Downs surface since his win in the Ruby, and seems no worse for the switch from Turfway’s synthetic surface to Churchill’s dirt. Trainer Brad Cox was awarded the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun after Medina Spirit was disqualified post-race, and has talked openly about wanting to cross the wire first. Final Gambit will at least offer Cox a chance.
Derby 151 starter: Flying Mohawk. Trainer: Whit Beckman.
Running Style: Deep Closer.
Trainer Whit Beckman has under five years of being a lead trainer under his belt, but he’s made quite the splash on the Derby and Oaks trails. Last year, he had Honor Marie in the Derby, and this year he’ll send Simply Joking and Drexel Hill to the Oaks starting gate. Flying Mohawk, like winner Final Gambit, did all of his best running later in the race, getting up and holding on to second place for a spot in the Derby starting gate.
Prior to the race, he had won on the turf in New Orleans, and was my top pick in the Ruby. I was hoping the turf form would translate to Turfway, and it did; he simply didn’t have the late speed kick Final Gambit does. I thought his tenacity in the stretch was notable, and his willingness and want to finish showed a lot. I don’t think much of him as a Derby contender, but given the success of runners out of the Ruby in recent years - Rich Strike (Derby winner), Two Phil’s (2nd in Derby), and Seize the Grey (Preakness and Pennsylvania Derby winner) - this wouldn’t be the most stunning outcome in the Derby.
WOOD MEMORIAL AQUEDUCT RACETRACK, NYC. APRIL 5, 2025.
Derby 151 starter: Rodriguez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Running Style: Frontrunner.
Rodriguez will join a battery of Baffert trainees in the Derby, alongside Citizen Bull and Madaket Road. The dirty little secret? Rodriguez is Baffert’s best chance at the Derby this year. I thought his race in the Wood was sneaky good, as he was able to jump out of the gate, overcome his rail position, and dominate the race throughout. Captain Cook, who had won two straight at Aqueduct, including the Withers - the final prep for the Wood - pushed Rodriguez on the front, but was no match.
Rodriguez’s speed figure in the race was the highest since since Frosted in 2015; Frosted went on to a 4th place finish in the Derby that year, and followed it up with a good 2nd in the Belmont. The caveat of 2015, of course, is that no one was catching American Pharoah. Rodriguez deserves serious consideration in this year’s Derby, and his running style should set him up for other 3-year-old stakes this summer. The major knock on Rodriguez isn’t personal, but historical: the last Wood winner to win the Derby was in 2000, when Fusaichi Pegasus won.
Derby 151 starter: Grande. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Grande sat a good trip, but an arduous one, in scoring second place and a spot in the Derby starting gate. He easily traveled the longest distance in the race, and passed post time favorite Captain Cook in the late stretch. He showed a ton of professionalism throughout the race, accepting an outside position before doing his best running upon asking.
Given the recent trend of Derby winners not winning their final prep race, horses like Grande deserve a bit of attention. His breeding screams distance, and I didn’t see a single thing that says he won’t take a step forward in Louisville. Prior to the Wood, he ran and won his first two races at Gulfstream Park; the Florida Derby, run at Gulfstream, is one of the best predictors of high-level success in the Kentucky Derby. He should take to the Churchill surface just fine, and could be a threat to be part of the equation at the end.
BLUE GRASS STAKES. KEENELAND RACE COURSE, KY. APRIL 8, 2025.
Derby 151 starter: Burnham Square. Trainer: Ian Wilkes.
Burnham Square is an interesting winner here, as he had most recently came out of a subpar effort in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Prior to that, however, he provided one of the more professional efforts of the Derby season: a rallying, tactical win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, also at Gulfstream. It was easily the best run of that set of preps, and while it didn’t garner a huge speed figure, it showed he was able to run at different paces and make moves when asked. There’s no doubting his intelligence and professionalism, both of which are super valuable in a race as long and complicated as the Derby.
Burnham Square benefited from a perfectly timed ride in the Blue Grass by last year’s Derby winning jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr., who should retain the mount in the Derby itself. He was a willing runner once Hernandez gave the cue, passing the entire field on his way to a narrow win over pace-setter East Avenue. If there is a knock, it’s that the pace up front was incredibly fast, allowing him to close into a collapse later on. This, to me, is a false narrative: we assume the pace up front in the Derby won’t be hot, and it always is. He’ll have pace to close into.
Liam’s Map, Burnham Square’s sire, also has Caldera amongst the top 3-year-olds this year. While Burnham Square is clearly his most successful progeny to date, Liam’s Map is a rising sire. After all, all great sires need a first great son or daughter. Burnham Square sets him up perfectly for just that.
Derby 151 starter: East Avenue. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
East Avenue is a near-impossible horse to figure out, as he’s either completely on his game, or completely off. He dominated his first two career races as a 2-year-old, a win in maiden company in the improving Ellis Park program, and a ‘wow’ performance in the Grade 1 Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland.
Fast forward to his 3-year-old campaign, where he began the year with an absolute dud in the Grade 2 Risen Star, confusing even his own connections. To their credit, they refused to quit on an obviously talented young colt, who showed out in the Blue Grass. He was hurried to the front, and was a willing front-runner. Oh, how different the narrative would be had he not gotten caught at the line by Burnham Square.
Ifs and buts and all that aside, East Avenue’s best career runs have both come at Keeneland. This is historically significant: 23 horses have exited the Blue Grass and won the Derby. The problem: only *one* has done it in the last 30 years, and that was Street Sense in 2007. The knock on the Wood is warranted, but the Blue Grass has been a near-auto toss in recent years. Last year’s winner, Sierra Leone, went on to finish in that historic three-way photo finish last year ahead of a transformative win in the Breeder’s Cup Classic.
East Avenue is talented, and fast. I think the distance questions are legitimate, but he is more than capable of getting the lead in the Derby.
Derby 151 starter: Owen Almighty. Trainer: Brian Lynch.
For many weeks, most in horse racing media assumed trainer Brian Lynch was trying to tell the truth (he probably was): he told us Owen Almighty can’t get the distance in the Derby, and should point to the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile, a race on the Derby undercard. Since then, he went ahead and dominated the 1 1/16 mile, Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Before that, he was the star of the Tampa trail to the Derby, showing flashes of brilliance and consistent good efforts.
The Blue Grass was different, and for many of us, confirmation of what Lynch had been saying: this is a talented, capable son of Speightstown who has distance limitations. Owen Almighty did what he does: gave an honest effort, and pushed East Avenue around the track. The issue? He ran out of gas, almost as if to fulfill Lynch’s prophecy.
Was he great early in the race? Sure. Did he have the late kick that would convince you he can win the Derby? Absolutely not. He’s up against it in the Derby, and I won’t be including him in any wagers.
Did Louie see the Derby winner?
If I had to guess, I saw what will be my third or fourth most likely Derby winner in the field. I still think horses like Sovereignty and Tappan Street (Florida Derby), Journalism (Santa Anita Derby), and Sandman (Arkansas Derby) are all major contenders in the field, and others on those trails have serious shots. Here are the contenders ranked most likely to least likely to win the Derby, that I saw in person:
1. Rodriguez
2. East Avenue
3. Burnham Square
4. Final Gambit
5. Grande
6. Flying Mohawk
7. Owen Almighty
What’s up next?
Check for our weekly SoCal racing preview tomorrow, as we preview the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. We’ll have our weekly wager in there, as well.
If you haven’t found us on the Sporting Trib’s YouTube page, consider checking out SoCal Saturdays, as we walk through the entire Santa Anita card every week. See you soon! Happy Derby!