It’s sunny, a slight breeze is blowing, and it’s 75° here in Louisville. We can only pray for weather this great on the First Saturday in May, but the sun and warm temps have inspired me to finally put together my first Derby 151 top contenders list for 2025.
The Virginia Derby is Saturday, the final 50 point prep on the road to Kentucky Derby 151. The following week, we’ll begin the 100 point preps - the win & in part of the road to the Derby.
Let’s take a step back, and explain the Derby qualifying process.
QUALIFYING FOR THE DERBY
Starting in 2012, Churchill Downs changed the formula for qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that point, qualifying was based on graded stakes earnings - anywhere in the world, on any surface. The reforms of 2012 were aimed at clarifying the manner in which horses qualify for the Derby, and to create eight or so months of buzz prior to the running of the race.
The “Road to the Derby” begins in September at Churchill, with the Iroquois Stakes. This is the first race of the “Kentucky Derby Prep Season,” and it awards 10 points to the winner. Minor placings - 2nd through 5th - receive reduced points for finishing in those spots.
The second part of the trail - “The Kentucky Derby Championship Series,” begins in January and awards 50 points to the winners of the January, February, and early March prep races; starting next week, the races will award 100 points to the winner, and 50 points to the 2nd place finisher. Certainly, much can change in the next four weeks.
There are paths all over the world - including in Japan, the Arabian Peninsula, and Europe. The European path has largely been a dud, given the huge purses and prestige of the races in UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Japanese have been active on both the Japanese trail and the UAE routes, giving us Forever Young in the winning trifecta in Derby 150, along with another top 5 finisher in T.O. Password. To date, no winner of a foreign prep has won the Derby.
LOUIE’S TOP 5 +
Without further ado, here is my top 8 for March 12, 2025.
1. Sovereignty. Trainer: Bill Mott. Owner: Godolphin. Sire: Into Mischief.
Next race: Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 5.
Sovereignty surprised no one when he broke his maiden winning the Grade 3 Street Sense, gaining favoritism from bettors prior to a powerful 5 length win. He returned for his first run of the year at Gulfstream Park in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Prior to the race, morning line maker Brian Nadeau told me “I simply don’t know which version of Sovereignty we’ll get. Will he be cranked? Is this just a run to get back on the track?” This sentiment was echoed this week by Michael Banahan of Godolphin, the owners of Sovereignty. “Well, we didn’t know what to expect either. But, obviously, we were thrilled.” If that was C+ Sovereignty, I can’t imagine what he’ll look like in the Derby starting gate in his third start in this form cycle. He’ll run next in the Florida Derby, which has produced 21 Derby winners since 1956, most recently with Mage in 2023.
2. Citizen Bull. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Owner: SF Racing. Sire: Into Mischief.
Next race: Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Citizen Bull pulled off a rare feat to end 2024 and start 2025: he won both the Grade 1 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and his first start in 2025, the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis. Of the last three 3-year-olds to win the BC Juvenile and their first race at 3, two went on to win the Derby: Street Sense in 2006, and Nyquist in 2015. Essential Quality, who won the Juvenile and then the Fountain of Youth, still managed a good 3rd place finish in the Derby. Citizen Bull has all of the trappings of a Derby winner: top sire, top trainer, top ownership group. Baffert is back, and Citizen Bull will lead the charge of his Derby starters. He’ll run next in The Santa Anita Derby, which has produced 10 Derby winners.
3. Journalism. Trainer: Mike McCarthy. Owner: Ellipse TB Partners. Sire: Curlin.
Next Race: Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Journalism would certainly qualify as the current “hot horse” on the Derby trail, as he was much the best against the Baffert-trained Barnes last out in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. He has an attractive running style, one which allows others to do the speed work up front prior to doing his best running late in the race. Given the massive size of the Derby field - there will likely be 20 starters in the Derby as compared to 5 in the San Felipe - a style close to the pacesetters is advantageous. He’s royally bred, has good connections, and has shown in his last two races - both two turns over dirt - that he is likely to be able to get the Derby distance in May.
4. Coal Battle. Trainer: Lonnie Briley. Owner: Norman Stables. Sire: Coal Front.
Next start: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Every year, we try to find the key races ahead of the 3-year-old season. Last year, it was December’s Remsen at Aqueduct, which produced Grade 1 winners Sierra Leone, Dornoch, and Domestic Product. Coal Battle won this year’s best candidate in the Springboard Mile, an early race on the Derby trail. The 2nd place finisher, Speed King, won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes in his next start. Coal Battle has since won Smarty Jones and the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, both at Oaklawn Park. Trainer Lonnie Briley is a Louisiana-based trainer, and Coal Battle is his first graded stakes winner. If Briley had a longer, more established track record of graded stakes winners, he’d be higher on this list; I’d be happy to be wrong and see the connections in the Derby 151 winner’s circle.
5. River Thames. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Owner: CHC, Inc. Sire: Maclean’s Music.
Next start: Grade 1 Florida Derby.
River Thames comes in at fifth, the first non-stakes winner on the list. He won on debut in January, and followed it up with a sensational race on Holy Bull day in February. He tried stakes company - and two turns - for the first time in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, before finishing a game 2nd to Sovereignty. If the race is only a few yards shorter, he’s a winner; he can take serious steps forward between now and May 3. Trainer Todd Pletcher is a 2-time winner of the Derby, giving River Thames a serious shot to be a contender throughout the Triple Crown.
6. John Hancock. Trainer: Brad Cox. Owner: CHC, Inc. Sire: Constitution.
Next Start: Louisiana Derby.
John Hancock has only started twice, winning both. Both starts have been at Tampa Bay, which is not a traditional spot for top horses to begin their careers. But trainer Brad Cox is pulling him from the 50 point, $500,000 Virginia Derby in favor of the $1,000,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Follow the money - and in this case - Cox’s hand-tipping.
7. Barnes. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Owner: Zedan Stables. Sire: Into Mischief.
Next Start: Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Barnes was second-best to Journalism last out in the Grade 2 San Felipe, but showed good speed and ability trying two turns for the first time. Everything about his breeding and connections say he can take a step forward in April’s Santa Anita Derby.
8. Owen Almighty. Trainer: Brian Lynch. Owner: Flying Dutchmen. Sire: Speightstown.
Next Start: TBD.
Owen Almighty has likely already qualified for the Derby, by virtue of his win in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s by Speightstown, which makes me question his ability to get the mile and a quarter in the Derby, but he’s at least in the field. I think he’ll be a miler long term, but if you’re in the Derby, you take the shot.
See you this weekend for our Saturday Santa Anita preview, including the Grade 3 Santa Ana, a mile and a quarter turf race for older female horses.