ARCAIDA, Calif. -- One of the very best things about Southern California racing is its robust state-bred program. In California, many races are carded for horses who were either bred or sired in California; it's long been a staple of the racing program.
Saturday is one such day: lots of "Cal-breds," horses bred at farms around the state. Generally speaking, state-bred races tend toward more wide-open races, and better payouts. They are certainly more difficult to handicap, but also tend to offer better payouts to bettors.
The Wishing Well Stakes, a 6 furlong sprint on the turf, is the 3rd race on the card. It's for non-winners of stakes races in recent months, which means it features many horses who have won at lower levels, but have yet to crack a stakes win. The field of 6 in this rendition fits the bill, and with a 3/5 favorite, a chance to try to beat a relatively untested runner.
Be sure to check out our full card analysis on the Sporting Tribune YouTube page, where you can watch "SoCal Saturdays" every weekend. You can find this week's episode here. Also, all of our Southern California racing coverage is presented by AmWager, where they have a 100% deposit match up to $150 for next users. Find them at AmWager.com, now live in California!
Let's meet the field, see if we can beat the favorite, and put together a wager.
Santa Anita Park. Race 3. The Wishing Well Stakes. 6F, turf. F&M 4+up. $100k.
1. Queen Maxima. 3/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Jeff Mullins.
Queen Maxima comes in the favorite, buoyed by back-to-back solid performances in turf sprint races at Santa Anita. She’s been no worse than second his last four runs, all turf sprints here and at Del Mar. His style will work well in this race - she likes to sit just off the leaders and pounce at the end. Who inherits the lead is a bit of a mystery in this one; if no one goes, few are better at getting the lead and controlling the pace than Hernandez. Bonus: he and trainer Jeff Mullins have won 9 of their last 25 Santa Anita starts together.
Comment: likely winner.
2. Laulne. 6/1. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
Laulne is an interesting entrant here, as the connections largely ran her in sprints in Europe prior to trying her at the mile in the Breeder’s Cup. Largely, this is because there is no sprint for juvenile fillies at the BC, and she has since settled back into sprinting since then, all in stakes company. The last time she ran at this level, she won a downhill course turf sprint here at Santa Anita. This is likely the best long-term level for this filly; the addition of 2024’s top jockey Flavien Prat makes this one a must-include.
Comment: include.
3. Arctic Breeze. 8/1. Jockey: Billy Antongeorgi. Trainer: Blaine Wright.
The last time we saw Arctic Breeze, she was in NorCal winning a 1 ⅛ mile dirt race at Pleasanton. Fast forward to this one: a turf sprint. If you want to be positive about this angle by trainer Blaine Wright, here it is: he has won 44% of his last 32 starts going from route to sprint. If you want to have doubts, use these numbers: 0% going dirt to turf, and 0% in turf sprints. He has been working over the synthetic at Santa Anita, a surface which he excelled on up north; often, those horses translate well to turf. Congrats to Arctic Breeze on being the absolute wild card in this one; we’ll pass.
Comment: reluctant toss.
4. Ma Rae’s Girl. 15/1. Jockey: Edwin Maldonado. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Ma Rae’s Girl’s last win was at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky, going a mile over the synthetic surface. Fast forward to trainer Doug O’Neill moving this one west after 2 starts at Turfway, largely settling on turf sprints. Her best race in this form cycle came back in November, when she showed speed over a 5 furlong turf sprint. I think this is a logical spot for her; but her ceiling is likely runner-up.
Comment: value for exacta plays.
5. Stay and Scam. 7/2. Jockey: Frankie Dettori. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
Stay and Scam has developed a tough habit: hanging on. In horse racing, this is running as part of the group, as opposed to trying to grab a lead. The horse has plenty of talent, finishing in the money 10 of his last 11 races. She’s been in this level of race so, so many times, and never broken through; could this be the race? Sure. But we’ll play against.
Comment: toss.
6. Miss Roberts. 10/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Jeff Mullins.
Miss Roberts is quite the international traveler, having started her career in Europe before a substantial stop in Canada before landing in Southern California. She hasn’t won in her last 10 races, but was good coming down the hill last out in an optional claimer. One win lifetime over 17 races makes her hard to play. Include her if you’re looking for a bomber to juice your tickets.
Comment: First toss.
The Sporting Tribune’s Wager
Race 1 Early Pick 3 Play: 2,7 / 2,4,7,8 / 1,2 $2 Pick 3 wager = $32.