Like much of the snow-covered US, horse racing’s stakes schedule has been largely quiet, as it usually is this time of year.
Gulfstream Park’s Pegasus World Cup follows the Eclipse Awards, the annual celebration of those at the very top of the sport. The Eclipse Awards were Thursday night, and the party continues today in South Florida.
The Pegasus began in 2017 with an unusual format: owners paid a million bucks up front, and the race was winner-takes-all. In horse racing’s history, we’ve had these types of races: at Pimlico, the home of the Preakness, the Pimlico Special was once winner-take-all. It was a bold concept, and one that didn’t last long: by 2020, entry was free, and the purse was set at a still hefty $3,000,000.
Today’s rendition includes a card with 7 total graded stakes, amongst the highest number of any card in the world on a single day. It’s a great day of racing.
The list of winners of the Pegasus, despite its short history, is impressive. Arrogate won the first rendition, himself a winner of four Grade 1s. Gun Runner won the next, as did Knicks Go (2021) and National Treasure (2024) on their way to Eclipse Awards.
Is there a horse of that quality in this group? Time will tell, but there is plenty of quality in this field. Let’s meet the contenders, and put together a wager.
Gulfstream Park. Race 13. Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup. 1 1/8M, dirt. 4+up. $3M.
TOP CONTENDERS
2. Saudi Crown. 9/2. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox.
Saudi Crown had an awful showing in the Breeder’s Cup, but bounced back immediately at Fair Grounds NOLA in the Tenacious, a lower level stakes. It appeared as though the 7 weeks off between races was the right move, and he’s primed in this spot, second off the layoff. He won last year’s Grade 1 PA Derby, before nearly winning the $20M Saudi Cup a year ago. His best form wins in this race, and he benefits from a favorable inside post position.
4. White Abarrio. 3/1. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
White Abarrio had the best two race sequence in 2023, dominating the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga before winning the BC Classic at Santa Anita. His connections shipped him for the massive purses in the Arabian Peninsula, to no avail; like many runners who return from that trip, he needed a lot of time off before his next win. He won a lower level race in November, before a decent 2nd place finish in December’s Grade 3 Mr Prospector. That race was only 7 furlongs, and this one is 9; the added distance will be helpful. White Abarrio’s record at Gulfstream cannot be overlooked: he’s won 6 of his 8 starts there.
11. Locked. 5/2. Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Locked is the 3-year-old we didn’t get last year. As a 2-year-old, he won the Grade 1 Breeder’s Futurity, before a solid 3rd place finish in the BC Juvenile. He took 11 months off before returning to win in an allowance, before stepping up and winning the Grade 2 Cigar Mile, both at Aqueduct. He’s perhaps the most talented runner in the field, but the 11 post is tough given Gulfstream’s track configuration. Locked stands out as a bettor’s dilemma: can his talent overcome the post position? Is he a play against for value?
LONGSHOT CONTENDERS
6. Stronghold. 10/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
SoCal is crashing the party with the addition of Stronghold to the starting gate. Last year’s Santa Anita Derby winner, he finished a respectable 7th in the Kentucky Derby before three straight 2nd place finishes, all in graded stakes. Brian Nadeau, who sets the morning lines at Gulfstream, is high on his chances here, and thinks his pressing running style will set him up in a favorable position. He ran a career best speed figure in his last race - the Grade 1 Malibu - which was contested over 7 furlongs. His breeding suggests more distance is best, as do his best races.
9. Mystik Dan. 8/1. Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
For many years, horse racing fans have lamented the defection of the very best 3-year-olds to the breeding shed. That’s not the case this year, as Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, and Fierceness are all planning on running in 2025. Mystik Dan made the long cross-country trek to run in the Malibu, finishing last in a mega-disappointing performance. He’ll get back to doing what he does best today - going longer over two turns - but it’s difficult to gauge how the travel and time off have affected him. Betting against McPeek and Hernandez, Jr. is a fool’s errand; you’ll notice the foolery in our wager below.
10. Skippylongstocking. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Skippy is a cool story for the connections, bred for $5,000 and purchased for $37,000 - he’s now earned over $3M in purses. He’s 10/1 in this field, despite being much better than Saudi Crown in the Breeder’s Cup, and having three lifetime wins at Gulfstream. Joseph, Jr. and Gaffalione are Gulfstream royalty, and Skippy has won 5 times at this distance. The 10 hole isn’t ideal for Gulfstream, but he has shown ability from difficult post positions in the past.
The Sporting Tribune Wagers:
Gulfstream Park Late Pick 5, Starts Race 9
1,11 / 1,10,11 / 2,7,9 / 3,5,7 / 2,4,11 $.50 Pick 5 = $81.
Gulfstream Park Late Pick 3, Starts Race 11
2,7,9 / 3,5,7 / 2,4,11 $1 Pick 3 = $27.