This time of year, we witness many 3-year-old horses make the move from shorter, one turn races to longer, two turn races.
The Pasco Stakes - the first of three races on the Tampa Bay Downs road to the Kentucky Derby - is run today. It’s a shorter, 7 furlong race, in anticipation of the longer Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, and the Tampa Bay Derby in March.
The TB Derby is early among the early Derby trail qualifiers, and it carries 50 points for the winner. Generally speaking, 50 points has been adequate to qualify for the Derby; its winners have not gone on to great Derby successes, but have starred in other spots. 2024’s winner, Domestic Product, won a Grade 1; 2023’s winner, Tapit Trice, went on to win 3 graded stakes. The last 3 winners of the TB Derby have won grade 1s, so the path itself is worth watching.
The Pasco drew a shorter field of 6, but includes the return of Ellis Park Juvenile winner Owen Almighty. Let’s meet the field, and put together a wager.
Race 4, Tampa Bay. Pasco Stakes. 7 furlongs, dirt. 3YO. $150,000. 1:58ET.
1. Juan Colorado. 30/1. Jockey: Cipriano Gil. Trainer: Abraham Gardea.
Being tabbed at 30/1 in a 6 horse field is tough, but Juan Colorado is worthy of such a designation. He began his career at Gulfstream Park, finishing last in his first race. He bounced back to win in a maiden claimer at Tampa, before switching to turf for his first try against winners. He finished a decent second in that race, and appears to be on his way to a reasonable career; it’s just unlikely to be at this level.
Comment: First toss.
2. Very Bold. 12/1. Jockey: Jesus Castanon. Trainer: Eoin Harty.
Trainer Eoin Harty is off to a hot start on the Derby 151 trail, with two of his trainees having already won a Derby prep. First Resort won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, while Poster won the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. Horses at this age are rarely in the same stages of development across a trainer’s barn, and Very Bold is a good example of this. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs - at the distance they’ll run in the Pasco - before trying the synthetic surface at Turfway Park and finishing up the track. A return to dirt should help unlock some of the mystery around Very Bold - he’s run four times, never over the same track conditions - but he’ll have to prove it first.
Comment: toss.
3. Cockeyed. 20/1. Jockey: Antonio Gallardo. Trainer: Terri Pompay.
Cockeyed is the longshot play in this rendition of the Pasco, coming out of an impressive maiden win over the same course. He’s likely to be the fastest out of the gate, so he creates a betting conundrum: does a bettor include him in longer tickets (as a winner), or do bettors lean on him in exactas and trifectas? It’s almost certainly the latter, but Cockeyed will be one to watch the rest of the season at Tampa. Trainer Terri Pompay has trained a Grade 1 winner in the past, and has been training since the 1990s. For today, a toss; but in the future, one to watch.
Comment: reluctant toss.
4. Rookie Card. 3/1. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Trainer: Danny Gargan.
Rookie Card comes out of a dominating win in a maiden run at Aqueduct, finally overcoming his foes in his third try. He has never been worse than 2nd by a half length, and has been training well at Palm Meadows training track in Florida. Trainer Danny Gargan had a breakout, career year last year, winning both the Grade 1 Belmont and Grade 1 Haskell with Dornoch; he also picked off the Grade 3 Matt Winn with Society Man. All of these are 3-year-old races, and Gargan also got both of those horses to the Derby 150 starting gate. He’s an include both on results, and on connections.
Comment: Include.
5. Naughty Rascal. 5/2. Jockey: Edwin Gonzalez. Trainer: Gerald Bennett.
In races like the Pasco, horses are allowed to carry less weight if they’ve yet to achieve wins at the level at which they’re running. Naughty Rascal will carry the most weight in this race - alongside Owen Almighty - by virtue of his win in November’s Armed Forces, a stakes at Gulfstream Park. He ran an excellent 2nd last out in the Inaugural at Tampa, finishing less than a length off Donut God, who challenged the track record at 6 furlongs. If Naughty Rascal can repeat that performance, he’s got a legit shot here. He’s a Florida-bred, but his lineage is a high-level one: his sire, Rogueish, is by Into Mischief; he’s out of Baby Doll, but Smarty Jones. This horse is bred for longer, so look for Naughty Rascal to be a mainstay on the Tampa Bay Derby trail.
Comment: include.
6. Owen Almighty. 4/5. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Brian Lynch.
Owen Almighty will break from the outside in the Pasco, drawing the favorable 6 hole. In a field of horses bred for $10,000 or less, Owen Almighty stands as royalty: he was bred for $80,000, and was a $350,000 yearling purchase in August of 2023. This race is simple: if he runs his race, he wins. The question facing bettors today: do we focus on the positives with Owen, the results, breeding, trainer numbers (Lynch wins with 20% of his stakes runners), or do we assume there will be a little rust, à la Fierceness off the bench in early 2024? Owen is our lynchpin horse of the weekend: if he wins, you’ll need to raise the base wager amount to be profitable; if you leave him out, and he loses, you’re likely to get a good pay, and the remaining money in the pool that was bet on Owen. We’ll include, as this seems like a perfect spot for the Lynch trainee; don’t be surprised if he doesn’t win, however.
Comment: include.
The Sporting Tribune $1 Pick 4
Race 4, Tampa Bay Downs 4,5,6 / 4,6 / 2,10,12,13 / 1. $24 wager.
Good luck!