In the modern era, qualifying for the Derby requires a number of points earned through racing. So, the “Road to the Derby” is defined by pre-determined races, and their significance.
Saturday’s Grade 2 San Vicente fills a spot in the next rung of Derby preps: a one turn race ahead of more grueling qualifying races throughout the spring. No points are earned by running well in the San Vicente; rather, trainers use it to set up their very best 3-year-olds for for those official qualifying races.
In February, the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis will award 20 qualifying points to the winner. In March, the Grade 2 San Felipe ramps up to a 50 point qualifier. Finally, the Santa Anita Derby, amongst the most important Derby preps in terms of eventual Derby winners, will award 100 points, and an automatic spot, in the Derby starting gate.
Trainer Bob Baffert has two entered in the San Vicente, and one which has incredible expectations attached to them. He has won this race a record 12 times, and if the morning line odds-maker is right, he’ll add a lucky 13th on Saturday. Given his suspension and inability to run in the Derby the last 3 years, look for Baffert to be aggressive with his trainees, starting with this race.
Let’s meet the field, and put together a wager.
Santa Anita Race 5. Grade 2 San Vicente. 7F, dirt. 3YO. $200,000.
1. McKinzie Street. 10/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Tim Yakteen.
McKinzie Street won on debut at Del Mar, a 5 ½ furlong sprint against other maidens. Since then, his connections have placed him against the very best in his class in SoCal: he ran a very good 2nd in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity; he then followed it up with less-than-great runs in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and Grade 3 Bob Hope. Both of those races were here at Santa Anita, where the race is being contested. His speed figure has regressed since his performance in the Futurity; his future is most likely at a lower level. Toss.
Comment: toss.
2. Barnes. 8/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Barnes became the answer to a trivia question in November, as he became Baffert’s first trainee to run at Churchill Downs since his suspension was lifted. It was a terrific race: Barnes had to overtake Wayne Lukas-trained Innovator in the deep stretch, with both horses being worthy of a win. Barnes took a week off training, then got right back to it, following the typical - and proven - Baffert method of including longer, timed 6 furlong works. All of his works have been at Santa Anita; his maiden win at Churchill Downs had a purse double that of the going rate in SoCal these days. Had he simply gotten an easy lead and cruised to victory at Churchill, we’d likely pass and let him beat us here; however, because he had to maneuver around competitors to win in a rallying fashion, we’ll include him as a potential winner. Should he qualify for and win the Derby, he would become an answer to yet another trivia question: the most expensive purchase to ever win the Derby. He was a $3,200,000 purchase as a yearling.
Comment: include.
3. Romanesque. 5/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Romanesque is an interesting entrant here, the 2nd of the Baffert runners. He won on debut at Del Mar, traversing the 6 ½ furlongs with ease, besting his competitors by open lengths. He’s been working steadily - and well - since that win in late November. While he checks many boxes - connections, breeding, etc. - he appears to simply be too slow to win in this company. If you’re looking to maximize the profits on your tickets, he would be the Baffert to use, as he’ll attract far less money than the two favorites. For us, he’s an exclude.
Comment: Toss.
4. Smooth Cruisein. 12/1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez. Trainer: Karen Headley.
Smooth Cruisein comes into this one off a similar result as Barnes: a rallying victory from off the pace, and an impressive show of mettle on debut. Should Smooth Cruisein win, it would easily become the story of the weekend in horse racing: trainer Karen Headley had only 2 wins in 2024, with Smooth Cruisein’s maiden win being half of them. S.C. is a son of Girvin, himself a winner of 3 graded stakes. S.C. sets up as one to watch, but not in this company.
Comment: out of depth.
5. Bullard. 4/5. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Mike McCarthy.
Bullard comes in as the morning line favorite, a winner of both of his starts. Both of his starts were at Del Mar, most recently a win in the Grade 3 Bob Hope, also contested at 7 furlongs. Jockey Umberto Rispoli keeps the mount here, and trainer Mike McCarthy brings an impressive 20% win percentage in recent graded stakes. He cannot take a step back and win, but if he were to take a step forward here, he would likely make himself the early Derby favorite.
Comment: most likely winner.
The Sporting Tribune Play
$2 Pick 3, starts race 5 at Santa Anita: 2,5 / 4,9 / 2,3,7 Ticket cost $24.