One of the very best things about horse racing is its regionalisms. Aqueduct on Long Island fills a unique spot on the horse racing calendar: the winter racing in New York state. If you tune in to watch this weekend’s races, you’ll notice a sizeable tarp over the turf course there in Ozone Park, as all of the racing there moves to the dirt surface.
In a few years, Aqueduct will close, in favor of added dates at Belmont Park. The two tracks are about a 10 mile drive from one another, and in the modern era of consolidation in the sport, there is no reason to have two tracks in Queens. Sorry, Queens.
But Aqueduct will continue to serve in its venerable winter role through 2026, when it will close after 132 years of racing on site, in favor of a casino. A $455,000,000 project is underway at Belmont, securing racing in New York City for the foreseeable future.
The Remsen, which was first run in 1904, is named for American Revolution leader Colonel Joremus Remsen. Let’s meet the field for this rendition, which grants 10 qualifying points toward Kentucky Derby 151.
Race 7. Grade 2 Remsen. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. 2YO. $250,000.
1. Tux. 3/1. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Trainer: Bill Mott.
Trainer Bill Mott has been on a tear recently, and he’ll send second-favorite Tux to the starting gate in this one. Tux won on debut, a rallying win in a shorter 6 ½ furlong race at Aqueduct. Everything about Tux makes sense in this spot: his breeding, his debut run, and Mott’s training acumen. He’s a worthy include here, as 2-year-olds commonly move from shorter races at the maiden level to longer ones in this type of scenario. Given the competition, he’s a must-include.
Comment: Must-include.
2. Aviator Gui. 6/1. Jockey: Manny Franco. Trainer: Chad Brown.
In many east coast turf races, public handicappers will focus in on “the other Brown.” In this rendition of the Remsen, Aviator Gui is exactly that. He has an important piece of experience, insofar as he has already tried two turns, while contenders like Tux have not. He broke his maiden two races back in a one-mile race at Aqueduct, before Brown tried him in a listed stakes on the turf. Brown hits at a more-than-respectable 18% moving horses from the turf to the dirt, and he and jockey Manny Franco have 25% of their recent combined efforts at Aqueduct. If there were a knock on Aviator Gui, it’s that he may simply not be fast enough in this company; we’ll bet that he isn’t.
Comment: Reluctant toss.
3. Poster. 5/1. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Eoin Harty.
Jockey Flavien Prat has had a remarkable year, now only two graded stakes wins away from Jerry Bailey’s seemingly untouchable record of 55 in a single year. Prat, with 53, has a chance to not only get closer, but tie Bailey in the Remsen, should he win the Go For Wand earlier in the card. Poster gives him an excellent shot: he’s undefeated in 2 career runs, and his breeding suggests he’ll be just fine over two turns. His dam, Pin Up, won her only race going a mile and 3/16 over the main track at Keeneland, and her sire, Tapit, has sired many which have gone on to win these kinds of races. The argument against Poster is rather simple: he has never tried dirt. His two wins have come in turf routes, but this will be his first try on dirt; Harty has him working over the synthetic surface at Turfway leading up to this one. We’ll gamble that Prat can overcome any deficiencies.
Comment: Trust Prat; include.
4. Studlydoright. 9/2. Jockey: Xavier Perez. Trainer: John Robb.
If the connections - the jockey and trainer - were swapped out for this race, Studlydoright would almost certainly be the favorite in this rendition of the Remsen. Jockey Xavier Perez spends much of his time in the Mid-Atlantic circuits, particularly in Maryland; trainer John Robb has had multiple graded stakes winners under his guidance. Studlydoright won the prep race for the Remsen back in early November, winning the 1 mile Nashua Stakes in a respectable time. He seemed to love the added distance in that one, and with his sire Nyquist having won the Derby, there’s no reason to think he can’t be a factor on Saturday.
Comment: Include.
5. Keewaydin. 6/5. Jockey: Dylan Davis. Trainer: Chad Brown.
Keewaydin comes in as the favorite, and as “the” Chad Brown. On debut, Keewaydin ran a good second behind Tip Top Thomas, who returned to the track in October and finished a good 2nd in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. His second attempt at breaking his maiden was a good one, easily topping the field in that 7 furlong race. He has the best speed figures of anyone in the race, and he took a good step forward from race 1 to 2. We’ll try to beat him, but it’s based on his breeding: his sire, Instagrand, was a splashy $1,200,000 purchase as a young colt. The problem? After winning his first two career races - both over one turn - he never finished better than 3rd. 6/5 feels short here, so we’ll try to beat him.
Comment: Pedigree leave-out.
6. Surfside Moon. 20/1. Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche. Trainer: James Lawrence II
Surfside Moon started his career at Delaware Park, running twice on the dirt before making the switch to the turf. This was a good move by the connections, as he won on first asking over the grass. He has a good amount of experience against other stakes-level 2-year-olds, but all of that running has been against turf fields. He seems a bit out of depth here, but one cannot deny the quality of his jockey: Kendrick Carmouche has won at least 100 races every year since 2001. If someone can pilot him to a big upset, it’s Carmouche.
Comment: First toss.
7. Gun Trader. 30/1. Jockey: Francisco Martinez. Trainer: Uriah St. Lewis.
Gun Trader, a son of the late-blooming Tom’s d’Etat, comes in off a maiden win. The bad news: it took six attempts to break his maiden. The good news: he did it going a mile over two turns at Parx. If you wanted to buy into his chances, you’d have to buy in on the pedigree, and his win over two turns. Otherwise, he’s simply not up to the quality of the others in this field, and will likely be trying for a lower podium position in this one.
Comment: Toss.
The Sporting Tribune Play:
$2 Pick 3, starts race 7: 1,3,4 / 1 / 1,5,7,10,11 Ticket Cost: $30.
MAILBAG
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See you next week, as we preview the Los Alamitos Futurity, a SoCal stop on the Derby Trail.
