ARCADIA, Calif.— The road to the Breeders’ Cup makes its last stops Saturday with more than a dozen races serving as “win-and-in” competitions for a trip to Del Mar in early November.
The Grade 1 American Pharoah, a 2 turn, 1 1/16 mile dirt race for 2-year-olds, anchors the late part of the card Saturday at Santa Anita. It is a win-and-in for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the star of the Friday card.
It’s a solid field of seven and features the names you’d expect in a race like this. Trainer Bob Baffert has won three straight, and five of the last six. He’ll send three to the gate Saturday in an attempt to make it a lucky 13 trips to the winner circle after this race.
Let’s meet the starters and put a wager together.
Grade 1 American Pharoah. 1 1/16M, dirt. 2YO. $300,000.
1. McKinzie Street. 9-5. Jockey: Kazuki Kimura. Trainer: Tim Yakteen.
A son of McKinzie, winner of multiple Grade 1s in SoCal, McKinzie Street comes in off a solid second in the Del Mar Futurity. Given his breeding, and the fact he was charging at the end of the Futurity, there’s no reason to think he can’t get the two turns and added distance in the AP. Kimura is 0 for 11 to start the meet at Santa Anita; this is an excellent opportunity to get off the schneid.
Comment: Contender.
2. Show of Force. 20-1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Todd Fincher.
Show of Force is deserving of his 20-1 morning line: He’s only won on turf, and trainer Todd Fincher has won one of his last 29 graded stakes. Umberto Rispoli is staying in SoCal to ride at Santa Anita despite opportunities at Keeneland this weekend, so perhaps he thinks there’s an opportunity here. More likely, he’s looking at other mounts on the card for his best shots at winner’s checks.
Comment: Toss.
3. Citizen Bull. 5-2. Jockey: Martin Garcia. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
This is the first of the Baffert trainees, and the 2nd longest odds of the 3, Citizen Bull had a disappointing show in the Del Mar Futurity. The concerning aspect of that run revolves around his finish: that is, he didn’t finish. With the added distance in the AP, he’ll need to find a gear he’s never found. But in a field of unproven horses and ones whose potential we’re banking on, he’s as likely as any given the connections and breeding. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who rode Citizen Bull, is at Keeneland today. It’ll be Martin Garcia — riding in Kentucky for Phil D’Amato — who will get the mount. Garcia is a capable rider, and should get Citizen Bull a good trip.
Comment: Include.
4. Mischief River. 10-1. Jockey: Cesar Ortega. Trainer: James Glenn.
Jockey Cesar Ortega is a journeyman jock, getting mounts where he can in SoCal since he began riding professionally in 2020. Mischief River is easily the best horse he’s ever ridden, and trainer James Glenn deserves credit for sticking with him in such a big spot. Mischief River, with different connections, would be considerably lower than 10-1: he broke his maiden on first asking at Los Alamitos and followed it up with good seconds in back-to-back graded stakes. His best race was last out on the turf in the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf, but the allure of a Grade 1 opportunity is certainly tempting for these connections. He’s royally bred up and down, and has a serious shot in this race — price be damned.
Comment: Live long shot.
5. Emerald Bay. 6-1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Emerald Bay will enter this race under jockey Antonio Fresu, who has excelled since moving his tack to SoCal. He’s an Italian ex-pat, and has seen purse earnings of over $8.5M this year alone, after earning $5.5M during the entirety of 2023. The breeding, connections, and jockey booked all say Emerald Bay is more than live; his workouts at Santa Anita say the same. He won last out going two turns at Del Mar. Jockey Juan Hernandez, who has a mount in this race, chose another over Emerald Bay.
Comment: Include.
6. Start Mo Up. 50-1. Jockey: Serafin Carmona. Trainer: Joe Lejzerowicz.
Jockey Serafin Carmona’s lone stakes win came in a state-bred race in Minnesota in August. He’s been riding largely at Canterbury outside of the Twin Cities, and has had a few starts in SoCal. Trainer Joe Lejzerowicz has had one starter ever: Start Mo Up. This horse has no business in this field and it would be surprising if he finished anywhere but last.
Comment: First toss.
7. Getaway Car. 2-1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Every trainer has giveaways, meaning they tip their hand toward horses they think are most likely winners. Baffert does this in interviews: if you ask him about a specific horse and he moves the conversation to another, his awful poker face is showing. He’s doing just that in this one: he has Hernandez riding Getaway Car, the second favorite in this race. He has the same ownership as the Baffert-trained Citizen Bull, but Hernandez will stay aboard Getaway Car. The workouts have been sharp, and the connections seem to be tipping their hand.
Comment: Most likely winner.
The Sporting Tribune Late Pick 3, starts race 8:
4 / 1,3,4,5,7 / 4,10 $3 Pick 3 = $30.