It’s been a fun year for 3-year-old races.
We had an all-time great finish in the Kentucky Derby, a 3-way photo finish between winner Mystik Dan, the super-talented Sierra Leone, and Japanese invader Forever Young. 88 year-old trainer Wayne Lukas won the Preakness with the talented Seize The Grey. And Saratoga-based Danny Gargan trained Dornoch to a win in both the Belmont — run at Saratoga - and then turned it around in the Haskell.
Fierceness, the 2-year-old champion, finally showed his best form in back-to-back wins in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Grade 1 Travers, both at Saratoga. The 3-year-old of the Year vote is crowded at the top.
All this and no mention of Thorpedo Anna, the filly who’s taken her division by storm. She was a mere head away from that Travers win against the boys, and she’ll go again in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx, back to running against fillies. Her resume is untouchable.
Which leads to the Pennsylvania Derby, a $1M race just outside of Pennsylvania. The aforementioned Seize The Grey is in this on, having sat out the Travers to rest and prepare for this one.
The best outcome for this race in terms of the division rankings — that is amongst 3-year-olds — is that he win in Philly this weekend. He’s got tough competition, however, so let’s meet them here.
Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. 3YO. $1,000,000.
1. Doc Sullivan. 12/1. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Michael Miceli.
Doc Sullivan comes in off a good 2nd place finish in the Albany - a restricted stakes for horses bred in New York state. He’s already earned over $350,000 in career purse money, but has no wins in a race longer than a mile.
The 1⅛ mile PA Derby might just be too much for him, but I don’t think he can be counted out of a podium position. Jockey Javier Castellano isn’t making the trip to ride him again, but the move to Jose Ortiz is a lateral, acceptable one.
Comment: Include in exotics.
2. Seize The Grey. 5/1. Jockey: Jaime Torres. Trainer: Wayne Lukas.
Preakness winner Seize The Grey comes in off of back-to-back disappointing runs in the Grade 1 Belmont and Grade 2 Jim Dandy, both at Saratoga. STG has had one of the more difficult and arduous schedules this year of any 3-year-old; this is already his 8th start on the year, and he didn’t make one until late February.
If he runs his race at his pace, he’ll win. It’s more likely we’ve already seen his best efforts this year; given that his mega-successful sire Arrogate passed away unexpectedly, he’ll likely be off to the breeding shed no matter the outcome in Philly this weekend.
Comment: Contender.
3. Lonesome Boy. 20/1. Jockey: Adam Bowman. Trainer: Hugo Padilla.
Something that’s never been written in the Trib before: Lonesome Boy is a Washington-bred. He has run 9 of his 13 lifetime races at Parx, so he is very familiar with the course.
They tried him in the Wood Memorial, and win-and-in for the Kentucky Derby; he finished a respectable 4th in a 12 horse field, 2 spots behind Grade 3 winner Society Man. His only wins have come on wet tracks, and the forecast this weekend will likely feature the driest conditions in some time for a PA Derby. Toss.
Comment: Toss.
4. Timeout. 10/1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Bill Mott.
Here’s our longshot play for the race: the lightly raced Timeout, trained by Bill Mott. No one in horse racing has guessed better with horses taking big steps up this year than Mott, but to his credit Timeout has never missed the board in his 5 lifetime runs.
He’s a son of Curlin, and is owned by Claiborne Farm, who is hoping he’ll develop into another major stallion. He’s not the likeliest winner, but given the even nature of this field, he’s got a better than zero shot.
Comment: Live longshot.
5. Protective. 8/1. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Protective has several things going for him. First, his breeding screams PA Derby winner. Second, his connections - jockey and trainer - do, as well.
And finally, he’s gotten it done at the distance, and that matters in this kind of field. He’s a step slower than other contenders at his odds, and he’ll get bet too much because of the aforementioned connections. Hard toss.
Comment: Toss.
6. Just Step On It. 15/1. Jockey: Jose Lezcano. Trainer: Louis Linder.
Just Step On It is the local favorite, having run a good 2nd in the prep a month earlier at Parx. Jockey Jose Lezcano has won an incredible 6 of his 13 races at Parx this year.
His only 2nd was aboard Just Step On It. He ran in the Grade 1 Haskell, and showed well; he’ll have to be considerably better than he has been in his career to win. Can he? Sure. Will he? Probably not.
Comment: Toss.
7. Dragoon Guard. 9/5. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox.
The late-blooming Dragoon Guard will go to the gate as the favorite, and he’s earned it of late. DG began his career with a single run as a 2-year-old, finishing a good 2nd at Churchill. He came back in a maiden race at Keeneland in April, before moving on to races against winners.
His last 2 races have been wins in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby, and Grade 3 West Virginia Derby. He’ll continue his progression east, and a move up in class. He’s a deserving favorite, but odds of 2/1 or shorter are not worth the gambling dollar.
Comment: Include.
8. Unmatched Wisdom. 8/1. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Chad Brown.
Unmatched Wisdom is lightly-raced, having won his 1st 3 races after beginning his racing career in May. He won his maiden at Aqueduct, and followed it up with victories at both Aqueduct and Saratoga. The connections think enough of him to have run him in the Travers; they’ll try a Grade 1 again here.
Handicappers in New York think the world of this horse; he’ll need a win in a race of this stature to fulfill that hope. He’s a son of Cairo Prince, an emerging sire; a win here would elevate his status, for sure.
Comment: Live longshot.
9. Who’s The King. 20/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
A son of Not This Time, Who’s The King would be the biggest upset winner in a Grade 1 race in North America this year. He has 1 lifetime win, a maiden optional claiming win at Gulfstream Park in April. He’s never tried stakes company before, and this is a massive step up.
Comment: Toss.
10. Uncle Heavy. 12/1. Jockey: Mychel Sanchez. Trainer: Robert Reid, Jr.
The lone Pennsylvania-bred in the race, Uncle Heavy had a great start to his career, winning 3-of-4 between October and February. He hasn’t won since a win over a muddy track at Aqueduct in the Grade 3 Withers.
He finished a reasonable 3rd in the Smarty Jones, the prep for this race; that field was considerably lower class than this one. He’s a threat to hit the board, nonetheless.
Comment: Include in exotics.
11. Stronghold. 5/2. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
In most years, the top pick on the board would be Stronghold: winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and a Kentucky Derby alum. He’s a gamer, and his best runs came in February and April, winning the Sunland Derby and Santa Anita Derby in consecutive races.
He ran a good 7th in the Kentucky Derby, before taking time off and running a very mediocre 2nd behind Dragoon Guard in the Indiana Derby. The case for Stronghold is simple: he’s done it before, and in this field of front-runners, he’s able to sit just off the pace.
A frenetic pace up front could be the undoing of many of the entrants in this field, but it sets up perfectly for Stronghold. Look for him to be sitting a few lengths back, ready to pounce in the long stretch at Parx. If he’s going to win another Grade 1, this is it.
Comment: Include.
The Sporting Tribune Plays:
Pick 3, starts race 11: 1,3 / 6 / 4,7,8,11 $2 Pick 3 = $16.
Mandatory Pay Pick 5, starts race 10: 3,6,7,8 / 1,3 / 6 / 4,7,8,11 / 6,9,10,11
$.50 ticket = $64. Good luck!