For many years, early Derby preps were an opportunity for several things.
First, a decent check from a stakes race for the winner. Second, some prestige amongst voters for year-end awards. And most importantly, the exact best time to sell a horse.
It is exceedingly rare to watch a great 2 year-old become an even better 3-year old. It’s not impossible, but it happens at a stunningly low rate.
This means selling your horse after it proves itself at 2 years old makes financial sense. If one dreams of the Derby, then a sale is a non-starter.
West Saratoga changed that last year. The winner of last year’s running of the Grade 3 Iroquois — run over a mile on the dirt course at Churchill Downs — meandered through the Road to the Derby prep races, earning enough points along the way to guarantee a spot in the starting gate for Kentucky Derby 150.
It was a cool story for cool connections. Trainer Larry Demeritte, a native of the Bahamas, is a small man in both stature and stable. He’s soft-spoken, but infectiously happy; he has the kind of smile that makes you smile simply by seeing it.
A chat with his assistant trainer, West Virginia-native Dante Lowery, about the long process to get to the first Saturday in May. The entire team was incredibly easy to root for, and reminded me that the little guy still can make it in the sport of kings.
Two year-old racing at this time of year generally sees three things: “maiden races,” or races set aside for horses who have never won previously; races where horses may not win, but they take steps forward in their running; and stakes races like the Iroquois.
The Iroquois will feature future “routers,” horses that travel at least a mile, or sprinters, horses which specialize in races at seven-eighths mile or shorter.
The Iroquois will set someone on the road to the Derby — and it features a fun group of young colts. Let’s meet them.
1. First Resort. 12/1. Jockey: Rafael Bejarano. Trainer: Eoin Harty.
First Resort gets the 1 hole here, which over the mile course at Churchill Downs shouldn’t be a hindrance of any kind. He broke well in his first race this past July at Ellis Park, coasting to a front-running victory.
He then shipped to Saratoga for the prestigious Saratoga Special, finishing a game second after doing much of the lead running earlier. His breeding says he should relish extra distance; perhaps having to stalk from an inside post will help him in this spot.
He’s super live here — and jockey Rafa Bejarano won this race in 2023.
Comment: Would Include; he scratched.
2. Giocoso. 10/1. Jockey: James Graham. Trainer: Keith Desormeaux.
Giocoso is the most difficult horse in this field to handicap and the reason is simple: After trying dirt in his first face, trainer Keith Desormeaux moved him to the turf, where he won his third lifetime race. He was favored that day and loved the added distance over two turns at Ellis.
Desormeaux only hits at 7% with his trainees moving from turf to dirt. For that reason, leave Giocoso out.
Comment: Toss.
3. Jack’s Time. 20/1. Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. Trainer: Kelly Von Hemel.
Only a few things will get you automatic buzz as a rising 2 year old, but Jack’s Time has two: a mount from this year’s Kentucky Derby winning jockey; and secondly a huge speed figure coming out of the last race. In horse racing, part of the handicapping process for many cappers is to take notice of where a horse broke its maiden.
In the winter at Gulfstream, during the Championship Meet? Great! In the summer at Gulfstream, during the summer meet? Woof!
Jack’s Time is an Iowa-bred who broke his maiden at Prairie Meadows in Iowa. Everything about the form makes sense for him: the fractions, the pace overall. This is too much of a step up.
Comment: Toss.
4. Authentic Strike. 12/1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset.
The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic was impressive in debut, overcoming a slow start to rally in the stretch to win. Jockey Luis Saez is off to a terrific start of the meet at Churchill and should give him a fair trip.
He’s live here, if for no other reason than his tenacity on debut. The light doesn’t need to go on for a young horse — it’s already on. He might be that type.
Comment: Include.
5. Owen Almighty. 5/2. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Brian Lynch.
Owen Almighty is a worthy favorite in this group. He’s won his first two starts, the first at Churchill and then a stakes at Ellis Park last out.
He’s been tactical in both, fast in both, and capable in both. There's no reason why he shouldn’t be favored at post time, including the move to jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., winner of last year’s Eclipse Award for top Jockey in North America.
Comment: Most likely winner.
6. Strummin. 12/1. Jockey: Cristian Torres. Trainer: John Hancock.
Strummin is the most experienced runner in the field, having run six times previously. He finally broke his maiden last out, and did it at today’s distance. Can he win here? Sure. Perhaps the light did go on, and he’s ready for a step up like this. I’ll toss here, but I don’t love it.
Comment: Toss.
7. Sandman. 6/1. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Mark Casse.
Sandman is a son of Tapit, himself once a Kentucky Derby starter. He ran his first race at the end of June at Churchill, finishing a distant fifth before showing his ability in his second start, this one at Saratoga.
He moved from 6 to 7 furlongs, and seemed to enjoy the added distance. With jockey Jose Ortiz, now in his second full-time meet at Churchill, expect him to get a fair trip. He can win here.
Comment: Include.
8. Magnitude. 8/1. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Magnitude comes out of a similar route to Sandman, having run once at Churchill before a maiden win at 7 furlongs at Ellis Park. He’s a son of Not This Time, and his mom is by Bernardini; he should absolutely relish the extra distance.
Tyler has been the leading rider at Churchill for a long time, so Magnitude is squarely in the includes.
Comment: Include.
9. Firmus. 20/1. Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. Trainer: Wayne Catalano.
Firmus is a tough one to handicap, as he won on debut in a race where he was clearly the class. He’s a son of Curlin, and that sets up for him to enjoy the mile distance.
Jockey Corey Lanerie had the mount on Firmus for both his maiden win and 11 Mesero’s; Lanerie has chosen to ride Mesero. Take that as a sign.
Comment: Reluctant Toss.
10. Jonathan’s Way. 9/2. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Phil Bauer.
This week, something happened that hasn't happened in years: We had an Iroquois “buzz horse.”
A buzz horse usually comes around before the Kentucky Derby (it was Honor Marie this year, who finished a decent 8th), but a member of Churchill’s media team tweeted about Jonathan’s Way having a bit of buzz around him.
This is worth liking. Save the buzz for the Derby. But this son of Vekoma — rising sire — is a must-include, and has a terrific shot. Trainer Phil Bauer runs a smaller operation, but is extraordinary at picking his spots.
Comment: Include.
11. Mesero. 15/1. Jockey: Corey Lanerie. Trainer: Dale Romans.
There was a time when trainer Dale Romans was amongst the most obvious includes in 2-year-old races;. He appears to have garnered some of that previous momentum, as his winning percentage has climbed to 12% with freshmen.
Generally, a debut winner gets a clean trip, and simply wins because they’re the best in the group. Not only was Mesero the best on debut, he did a ton of work to pass eight other horses throughout a short 6-furlong race.
This horse's show of want-to on debut is great and include him at a delicious 15/1 price.
Comment: Include.
12. Politicallycorrect. 6/1. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Chris Davis.
Politicallycorrect is a simple one to handicap: He won his first two races, both at Churchill, before losing to presumed post time favorite Owen Almighty at Ellis Park in the Juvenile last out.
If you think all he needs is a return to a surface he loves, then 6-1 is a steal. If you think he’s seen his best race, he’s a toss.
He's capable of winning here, and the aforementioned return to Churchill should help. Worth noting: jockeys Jose Ortiz and Luis Saez, who’ve ridden him previously, both have different mounts in this race.
Comment: Include.
The Sporting Tribune Play for today:
Pick 3, Starts Race 9: 2 / 4,5,10,12 / 5,11 $2 Pick 3 = $16. Good luck!