SAN DIEGO -- For the second straight year, the San Diego Padres will face the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round with a chance to play the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Division Series.
This time around, however, the three-game set will take place at Petco Park.
Entering September, San Diego trailed Chicago and the Philadelphia Phillies by five games for the top Wild Card spot and led the Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.5 games for the final playoff spot. Four weeks later, San Diego's strong final month had manager Craig Stammen and his team in position to host No. 5 Chicago in the opening round of the playoffs.
San Diego enters the series as one of the hottest teams in baseball, going 18-6 in September while Chicago stumbled to the finish line with an 11-13 record over its final 24 games.
Here's how these two teams match up prior to Game 1 Tuesday night.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Offensively, the Chicago Cubs arrive in San Diego with the National League's most productive lineup, averaging 5.24 runs per game during the regular season while leading the league with 220 home runs.
The Padres have struggled finding consistent production at the plate this season, particularly during a turbulent summer. But San Diego still has plenty of firepower, headlined by right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and veteran third baseman Manny Machado. Machado led the team with 30 home runs, while Tatis paced the Padres in batting average (.289), hits (181) and on-base percentage (.358).
Chicago will also bring one of baseball's most dangerous young sluggers to Southern California. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong enters the series as the leading candidate for National League Most Valuable Player after crushing 45 homers while swiping 41 bases and posting remarkable defensive metrics. Alex Bregman provided another source of thump in his first year with the Cubs, hitting 28 home runs with 93 RBIs in 155 games after signing a five-year, $175 million contract with Chicago in the offseason.
San Diego may not have the MVP favorite in its lineup, but the Padres have found an unexpected spark in the middle of their order with first baseman Ty France. After signing a minor league deal with the Padres during the offseason, France has caught fire down the stretch, batting .321 with a .908 OPS in the second half. In the cleanup spot, France owned a .390 OBP and a .496 slugging percentage in 228 at-bats.
On paper, Chicago holds a clear edge in offensive firepower. However, with Machado, Tatis and a surging France in the middle of the lineup, San Diego could prove troublesome for Chicago's pitching staff.
Chicago's pitching staff, meanwhile, enters the series with plenty of questions surrounding its rotation. Chicago has yet to announce a Game 1 starter and could choose between left-hander Matthew Boyd and newly acquired right-hander Kevin Gausman, with Clay Holmes and David Peterson also in the mix. Southpaw Shota Imanaga started Game 162 against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field on Sunday and could be an option for a potential Game 3 on Thursday, although he would be working on just three days of rest.
The uncertainty extends to the back end of the bullpen. Chicago used a committee at closer throughout the season, with Jacob Webb leading the team with nine saves while five other relievers recorded three saves apiece.
On the other side, San Diego's starting rotation features Michael King, who is slated to take the ball in Game 1 on Tuesday. The 31-year-old right-hander anchored a rotation that dealt with a surplus of injuries throughout the year, making 32 starts and posting an 18-12 record with a 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP — numbers that rival his standout first season with San Diego in 2024.
The other rotation spots remain more up for grabs. Nick Pivetta appears to be the leading candidate to toe the rubber in Game 2. The right-hander made just eight starts this season due to an elbow injury that held him out for nearly five months, but posted a 2.86 ERA across 34 2/3 innings in those outings.
Left-hander Robbie Ray, whom the Padres acquired at the trade deadline, and two-time World Series champion Walker Buehler are the likeliest options for a potential winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday evening. Buehler's postseason pedigree, combined with Chicago's numbers against left-handed pitching, could give the former Dodger the edge over Ray, the former Cy Young Award winner.
The biggest strength for San Diego: the bullpen.
The Padres finished the regular season with a top-five bullpen ERA, getting key contributions from left-handers Adrian Morejon and Wandy Peralta. The pair combined for 157 strikeouts while allowing just 11 home runs across 163 1/3 innings. Bradgley Rodriguez has also been lights out in his first full major league season, posting a 2.19 ERA with 81 strikeouts across 74 innings.
While those three relievers dominant the middle innings, San Diego's strongest weapon waits at the back end.
Closer Mason Miller has been phenomenal in his first full season with the Padres, collecting 38 saves in 66 appearances while striking out 129 batters across 70 innings. The 28-year-old flamethrower has been nearly untouchable all season and will be crucial to San Diego's hopes of advancing.
To book a date with Milwaukee, San Diego will have to beat Chicago twice in three games — something the Padres failed to do in six regular-season meetings. After taking the opener of the season series in San Diego in April, Chicago won five straight, including a 23-3 dismantling at Wrigley Field to complete a three-game sweep and hand the Padres the worst loss in franchise history.
Luckily for San Diego, the postseason offers a clean slate. The regular season is over, and the Padres now have a chance to avenge last year's defeat while continuing their quest for the organization's first World Series title.
PREDICTION
San Diego will take Game 1 behind a dominant start from King and timely hitting, putting Chicago on the brink of elimination before the Cubs respond with an offensive outburst in Game 2 to force a decisive third game.
France, a key X-factor in the series, will keep his hot stretch going with a clutch home run against Chicago's middling bullpen, sending San Diego to the NLDS.
Padres in 3.