The San Diego Padres completed their four-game set in Colorado by taking three of four from the Rockies, thanks to having put at least a run across in the first three innings for their last seven consecutive games and ten of their past 13.
With the extra game in the schedule made up, the Brown and Gold find themselves four games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild Card, with a magic number of six. Any combination of San Diego wins and Snakes losses that adds up to six means that the Padres will be playing Fall baseball for the third campaign in a row and fifth time in the last seven seasons.
It would be another accomplishment in the most sustained success era of the franchise, becoming the first time San Diego would be in the Postseason three years in a row. The five appearances in seven years would equal the five berths in the first fifty years of the franchise.
What remains is a three-game home series against the Marlins, a three-game set at the NL West Champion Dodgers and a closing three at home against Arizona. There is potential for drama, but with both the Phillies and Cubs above them by just a game in the NL Wild Card standings, it could get nuts. Remembering that the Padres with have to finish a game above both Chicago and Philadelphia to win the tie-breaker, here’s what we’ve seen recently:
Miami series offers opportunity for Padres to amp up the pressure
For a San Diego Padres team that entered the All-Star Break with two wins in four at Arizona and two of three in Toronto, the first seven out of the break where they lost two of three in Kansas City (one on a walk-off) and three of four at Atlanta looked like a flashing warning sign. They sat four games back of Arizona for the final NL Wild Card spot with four teams to jump.
Then came the three-game sweep at Miami from July 24-26, with wins by two, five and two.
All of a sudden the Padres were off and running to a stretch of 29 straight games where they wouldn’t take losses on consecutive days and go 21-8.
Carried by their pitching, which has the second-best ERA at 3.35 and fourth-fewest walks at 2.98 since the start of the run from the Marlins series, the recent offensive outpour has been on all display for the Brown and Gold.
As much as the Cubs duo of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman dominate the top of the individual production boards, Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the fifth-most home runs since the start of the Miami series with 15, and Jackson Merrill’s 39 RBI is tied for the fifth-most in the stretch. And for as much as PCA and Bregman have had their names attached to WAR in recent days, since the series in Miami, Merrill and Tatis rank four and five overall at 2.4 and 2.3.
Now, the Padres walk in with the highest slugging percentage (.478), the second-highest OPS (.818) and the third-most home runs (21) in September.
Merrill (five hits, three runs, two RBI), Ty France (five hits, four RBI, three runs) and Manny Machado (five hits, four RBI) were the top producers for the Padres in Miami, helping the side rally from behind or after five in two of the three games.
The Padres hold a 10-5 season series lead since the 2024 year when San Diego earned a 4-2 edge against the Marlins.
Phillies have slim hopes to catch Braves, would be a tough playoff test
Entering the day four games back of Atlanta, it would take a lot for the Phillies to catch the Braves for the NL East pennant. They sit four games back, with Atlanta having won the season series 9-4 and, after taking the first four meetings this year, they took two of the last three in Atlanta that included a walk off in the first game.
The Phils record against their remaining schedule sits at 6-4 against the Mets (with three games remaining in their current series), a 1-2 performance in Milwaukee and they have yet to face the Tampa Bay Rays.
Contrast that with Atlanta’s slate of three games at a one-over-.500 wobbly Astros team that is trying to desperately hold off Texas in the NL West despite dropping seven of their last ten. Then a home series vs the eliminated Reds, who haven't put together back-to-back wins since the beginning of the month, finished with three at a Marlins team that could be done as early as this weekend.
The Padres need to jump Philadelphia to surpass them, having lost all six regular season games. They were all within save-range, but the Padres never held a lead through the fourth inning in the season series and got shutout twice by starters Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo in combination with five lockdown innings by their bullpen.
Cubs fighting for home WC series, would be a familiar foe, ton of production
To Chicago’s great misfortune, and everyone else in the NL’s delight, the Cubs had a pair of series against the Brewers in the early part of the month where Milwaukee took five of six and brought the North Siders back within range.
That doesn’t mean NL MVP candidate Crow-Armstrong and Chicago all of a sudden are any less difficult of a matchup.
Numbers that should particularly churn the Padres' fans stomachs: Since the Padres rebound series at Miami, the Cubs have led the Majors in runs (297), home runs (83) and posted the highest OPS (.812).
But, they face three in a row at a Red’s side that they’ve actually dropped two in Cincinnati thanks to a pair of two-run losses on Aug. 28 and Aug. 30, but the season composite run totals are +8 for Chicago at 30-22. It’d be dishonest not to note that the Cubs won two of three in Cincy from July 10-12 after having worked a four-game sweep from May 4-7, with three walkoffs.
The Reds actually rank the second-most amongst the Cubs. Maybe that’s being familiar, maybe it isn’t.
The big question is how Chicago will handle the likely-eliminated Marlins, and the a trip to Boston down the stretch.