The Belmont Stakes has come and gone, meaning we’ve reached the end of the Triple Crown Season for 2026. Congratulations to Golden Tempo, winner of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. He was by far the best horse in the Belmont, giving his win in the Derby even more legitimacy.
At this point in June, many connections in horse racing look to the “summer derbies,” usually regional races on many smaller tracks’ biggest days. It was recently announced the Kentucky Derby 3rd-place Ocelli will run in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby; today, Further Ado and Potente will try the Grade 3 Matt Winn. It’s Summer Derby Season, after all.
Today’s race at Santa Anita is no Derby, and heck, none of the runners in it have even run a race. You might be asking yourself: what possessed Louie to even look at this race in the manner he is?
Simple, one word answer: Arrogate. It was on Sunday June 5, 2016, that he broke his maiden right here at Santa Anita. Arrogate would spend the late summer, fall, and winter winning massive races: he won three Grade 1s in a row: The Travers at Saratoga, the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita, and the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park. Even better - he shipped to Dubai for the World Cup two months later, and won that, as well.
Is there an Arrogate in this group? It’s unlikely. But our mission this time of year is a simple one: find the 3-year-old colt who’s going to be ready for those later Derbies.
Let’s meet the field, and put together our wager. If you’re wagering on Santa Anita Park, check out AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $50 for new customers.
SA Race 7. Maiden Special Weight. 3, 4, & 5 year-olds. 6 ½ furlongs, dirt. $65,000.
1. Peace on Earth. 10/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Trainer Richard Mandella will send first-timer Peace on Earth to the gate, having won 4 of his last 29 such starts. Recent gate works suggest he’ll break well, and be able to at least partly overcome the rail draw. I think he’s live to hit the board.
2. Gettingawaywithit. 30/1. Jockey: Abel Lezcano. Trainer: Mark Glatt.
Rarely do you see horses making their debuts at 5-years-old, but Gettingawaywithit will do precisely that today at Santa Anita. All of trainer Mark Glatt’s numbers make sense here, but it’s just so difficult to predict what 5-year-old will do first time on the track. He was a $575,000 purchase as a 2-year-old, a reminder of just how tough a game this is.
3. Roast. 5/1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
Roast is another expensive purchase, fetching $725,000 at Keeneland in September of 2024. His recent works suggest he’ll run huge here today, and trainer Michael McCarthy has watched his percentages with first-time starters improve in a serious way. He’s absolutely live here, and his breeding of Practical Joke on the sire side and Orientate on the dam side make him one to watch moving forward.
4. Sir Davis. 7/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Sir Davis is the Baffert trainee that, if one wanted to get technical, actually fits the Arrogate bill: he’s making his second career start this weekend. Arrogate’s second race came over a mile and a sixteenth, a race condition largely unavailable to connections in Southern California these days. So, he’ll be expected to pick up the pace should he want to win today. Good news: he keeps top jockey Juan Hernandez; bad news, I’m not sure he’s as fast as some in this group, and may want more distance. He lost to Ontario-bred Father Ted on debut; this is a far deeper field.
5. Duke Silver. 4/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Mark Glatt.
Duke Silver will make his third career start today, coming out of a near-miss in his most recent start. All of the numbers say this Mark Glatt trainee should run a big race today; he’s another where a different condition would help, as his breeding suggests he’d prefer a longer race. He was able to get the lead before conceding it last out; jockey Antonio Fresu will likely have to employ the same tactic today.
6. Newton. 3/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Newton is Triple Crown-nominated, and given the connections, this tracks: Starlight Racing as owners; Baffert as a trainer; a $975,000 purchase price; breeding that suggests the owners want to win important two-turn races. Outside of the occasional 6 furlong work on his tab, Newton has all the trappings of a first-out winner for Baffert. Is he the next Arrogate? Likely not, but connections clearly think they have something here.
7. Practical Jack. 8/1. Jockey: Edwin Maldonado. Trainer: Val Brinkerhoff.
It is easy to understand how good of a race this is, given the morning line of 8/1 for Practical Jack: he’s a son of Practical Joke, a $160,000 purchase, and he has some of the best works coming into this race. Trainer Val Brinkerhoff hasn’t won with a first-time starter in a long time, so we’ll follow that trend and play against here.
8. Yautown. 12/1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
Yautown, bred to sprint, is making his second start here. While trainer Michael McCarthy might’ve had questions about his first time starter numbers, there’s no denying how good his runners are at second asking. They’re throwing the blinkers on to try to get a better start into him, and jockey Ricky Gonzalez only knows one speed: go. He’s interesting at a long price.
9. Moon. 8/1. Jockey: Victor Espinoza. Trainer: Simon Callaghan.
The Simon Callaghan trained Moon finished alongside Sir Davis in their respective first starts last out. Maiden races aren’t Callaghan’s forte, but this one is a nice runner. The outside post will be more welcome than the rail he drew last out, and should allow him to get into the race well. I’ll play against, but the case for Moon is pretty straightforward.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$.50 Pick 4, Race 4 ($36): 1,6,7 / ALL / 5,8,9,11 / 6. Good luck!